Transcript Population and housing forecasts for output areas: Methods and uses.

Robin Edwards
Hampshire County Council
Population and Household
Forecasts for Output Areas
Methods and Uses
Contents
• Land Availability Monitoring System (LAMS)
• Use of LAMS data in Population Forecasting
Model
• Outline of Complete Small Area Population
Forecasting Model (SAPF)
• Outputs from Model and Uses
Main Features of Land Availability
Monitoring System (LAMS)
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Planning decision and planning monitoring system
All planning consents granted in the county
All sites allocated in local and structure plans
Record created for each site and mapped on to GIS
Development progress – starts, completions
Estimated phasing of outstanding development
Sites with Full Planning Permission
Dwellings by
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Number
Type
Tenure
Number of bedrooms
Completion year(s), actual or estimated
Remaining Sites
• Sites with Outline Planning Permission
– Dwellings by number (estimated), type, tenure
and estimated completion year
• Allocated Sites
– Dwellings by number and completion year (both
estimated)
LAMS Information into SAPF Model
For each record
• Output area code via link with GIS
• Number of completions by type, tenure, number
of bedrooms and year
• Number of losses by year
• Estimated phasing of outstanding development on
large sites by year (with details where known)
Output from LAMS; Input to SAPF
Year
OA
TT11-73
TT11 TT21 TT31 TT41
TT51 TT61 TT71
2002
24UNGA0009
24
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
2002
24UNGA0010
27
2
15
6
4
0
0
0
2002
24UNGA0011
12
1
11
0
0
0
0
0
TT12
Estimating Future Completions on Small
Sites
Sites not phased so estimates based on:
• Past completion trends
• Past geographical distribution
Conversion of Dwelling Supply to Population
Dwellings Type/Tenure Occupancy Rates
Source: HCC Home Movers Survey 2002
Tenure 1
Persons per
dwelling
1 Bed
2 Bed
3 Bed
1.4
1.7
2.2
Male 0-4
0.0
1.0
4.9
Male 5-10
0.0
2.1
2.0
Male 11-17
3.5
2.1
1.5
Male 18-24
13.4
2.1
2.0
Male 25-34
4.5
8.3
13.1
Basic Model Structure
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Demolitions Module
Natural Change Module
Out Migration Module
Dwelling Stock Gains Module
Other In Migration Module
Geographical Levels Recognised by
Model
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Output Areas
Wards
Districts
National (County)
Age Ranges Recognised by Model
• Single year of age and gender
• Quinary age groups by gender
• Aggregated age groups by gender
Demolitions Module Inputs
Data
Geography Age Distributions Source
Private Household
OA
Population (PHPOP)
Single year of age
2001 Census
Dwelling Stock
(DWS)
OA
N/A
2001 Census
Dwelling Losses (DL) OA
N/A
LAMS
Natural Change Module Inputs
Data
Geography Age Distribution
Source
Private Household OA
Population
Fertility Rates (FR) National
Single year of age
Single year of age
Demolitions
Module
GAD
Mortality Rates
(MR)
Actual Births
National
Single year of age
GAD
Ward
All ages of mother Vital Statistics
Actual Deaths
Ward
0-64, then quinary
age groups
Vital Statistics
Out Migration Module Inputs
Data
Geography Age Distribution
Source
Private Household
Population
OA
Single year of age
Natural Change
Module
Out Migration
Propensities
Ward
5 year age groups
2001 Census
Inputs to In Migration to Existing
Dwelling Stock Module
Data
Geography
Source
Dwellings
Ward
Demolitions module
Vac Rate & Second Homes
Ward
2001 Census
Private Hhold Popn
Ward
Hhold Representative Rates Ward
Out Migration
module
2001 Census/DCLG
In Migration Propensities
Ward
2001 Census
England & Wales pop
National
GAD
Constrained Final Population
Forecast
• Basic assumption: in each district, rate of
decline in average hhold size equals the
average annual rate of decline between the
two most recent censuses
Inputs Required to Calculate
Constraints for Final Population
Data
Age Distn
Geography Source
Private
Hhold Pop
Hholds
District
All ages
District
Av Hhold
District
Size
HHold Rep Ward
Rates
In Migration
Module
All ages
In Migration
Module
N/A
1991/2001
Censuses
Quinary age In Migration
groups
Module
Model Outputs
Population by:
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100 age groups
2 genders
5,400 Output Areas
7 Forecast Years from Base Year
Hholds by age and gender of Hhold Rep
Total Dwelling Stock
Components of Forecast Population Change
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Births
Deaths
Out Migration due to Dwelling Stock Loss
Out Migration from Existing Dwelling Stock
In Migration to New Dwellings
In Migration to Existing Dwelling Stock
Derived Outputs
Population by
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Parish
Ward
District
School Catchment Areas
Other Departmental Service Areas
Urban Areas
PCTs
Ad Hoc Areas via GIS
Economic Activity
Any Age Range