Transcript Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030

Modelling Needs and Resources
of Older People to 2030
A collaborative research project funded
by the Research Councils’ New
Dynamics of Ageing programme
Partners
Academic
London School of Economics (Dept of Social Policy,
Personal Social Services Research Unit)
University of Leicester (Dept of Health Sciences)
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
(Centre for Population Studies)
University of Essex (Dept of Health & Human
Sciences)
Pensions Policy Institute
Non-academic
Department for Work and Pensions
Aims
To produce high quality analysis to inform
public debate and development of future
long-term care and pensions policy up to
2030
By
 projecting the numbers, disability status,
family circumstances, income, savings and
care needs of older people, over the next 30
years
 assessing the affordability and distribution of
costs and benefits of combined policy
options for pensions and long-term care
 accounting for links between care needs and
economic resources in later life
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Methods
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an integrated programme of new
statistical analysis and modelling
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building on pre-existing models
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sensitivity testing to key trends
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scenarios on key unknowns
The Team and Time Scale
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Prof Mike Murphy, LSE
Profs Carol Jagger & James Lindesay,
Leicester
Prof Emily Grundy, LSHTM
Prof Ruth Hancock, Essex
Raphael Wittenberg, Adelina ComasHerrera, Linda Pickard, Derek King,
Juliette Malley, PSSRU
Chris Curry, Adam Steventon, PPI
Department for Work and Pensions
BT
Time scale: Jan 2007 - Dec 2009
5 linked work packages
Mortality trends and
their implications
(WP1)
Changing family
units & kinship
structure
(WP3)
Household & family
resources
(WP4)
Future disease
patterns & their
implications for
disability in later life
(WP2)
Projections of
pensions,
incomes, savings,
care (paid &
unpaid);
expenditure on
pensions & longterm care
(WP5)
User Engagement & Dissemination
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An early seminar for users and
researchers to discuss the research
programme
An advisory group of research users
and scholars; 2 meetings a year
A web site and a regular email
newsletter
Events to discuss early findings and
related research by others
Further information
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A web site will be developed with
links from all partners’ web sites
email: [email protected]