Transcript David Jaffee, "Seven Questions to Ask About $1 Billion Spending of Public Funds for St Johns to Dredging/Deepening" -- Presentation to Mayor's Port Task Force

SEVEN QUESTIONS TO ASK ABOUT $1 BILLION
SPENDING OF PUBLIC FUNDS FOR ST JOHNS
DREDGING/DEEPENING
David Jaffee
Professor of Sociology
Northeast Florida Center for Community Initiatives
University of North Florida
[email protected]
#1: WHAT ARE THE TRUE COSTS/BENEFITS?
PROJECT/PUBLIC APPROVAL =
(underestimate costs) +
(overestimate revenues) +
(undervalue environmental impacts) +
(overvalue economic development effects)*
Lesson:
Conduct/commission independent cost-benefit multi-port analysis of the project.
How are costs/benefits distributed?
* B. Flyvbjerg, M.S. Holm, & S. Buhl, S. “Underestimating costs in public works projects”, Journal of
the American Planning Association 2002 Volume 68(3) p. 279-295.
#2: HOW DOES MARTIN
ASSOCIATES CALCULATE THE JOB
NUMBERS?
At 47’ 13,844 additional jobs generated by 2035
• How reliable are 20 year predictions?
•Based on capturing how much cargo from which ports?
• What is the factor used by Martin to translate TEUs into jobs and
revenue?
• What income level is used to estimate induced jobs?
“the potential distribution center activity associated with an annual
first inbound Asian service” is 11,500 jobs
•How likely is it that Jaxport will receive a first inbound Asian carrier?
•How is the 11,500 jobs figure calculated?
•What are direct, induced, and indirect?
#3: WHAT KIND OF JOBS WILL BE CREATED?
Claim: Avg Salary 43,000
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations*
Median Annual Income = $28,538
61% of employment in three largest occupations:
Laborers and Freight, Stock Material Movers (34%)
Heavy and Tractor Trailer Drivers (21%)
Packers and Packagers (6.4%)
Average Median Income for these three = $28,395
(assuming FT/Year round employment)
* Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), May 2013
#4: WILL 47’ OF WATER MAKE ANY
DIFFERENCE?
Water Too Shallow/Bridge Too Low
CONTAINER
VESSEL
NAME
TEUs
Water Air
(nominal) Draft Draft
(ft)
(ft)
Evergreen
Ever Laurel
Susan Maersk
8,800
8,000
46.6
47.6
~175
~180
MSC SINDY
9500
49
NA
New Panamax
13,200
49.9
> 180
Emma Maersk
15,000
50.9
195
Maersk Triple-E
18,000
51
239
Dames Point Bridge air draft = 175 ft
#5: WHY HAVE ALLIANCES CHOSEN
OTHER PORTS?
“Revealed Preferences” of Carrier Alliances
JAXPORT Losing Market Share to Other Ports
Alliance Port Rotation
#6: WILL THERE BE ENOUGH CARGO TO JUSTIFY
EAST COAST DEEPENING PROJECTS?
'Certainly we as an association and in the industry as a whole recognize and believe that not
every port in the country needs to be at a depth to be able to accommodate the largest vessels
in international trade,' Kurt Nagle, American Association of Port Authorities
#7:
IS THERE A STRATEGY FOR AN ECONOMICALLY
VIBRANT PORT THAT DOES NOT DEPEND ON
$1 BILLION AND DAMAGE TO THE
ST JOHNS RIVER?
WHAT ROLE FOR PRIVATE TERMINALS AND
THE PORT OF JACKSONVILLE?