Transcript Who Evacuates When a Hurricane Approaches?

Who Considers Evacuation When a
Hurricane Approaches?
KENNETH WILSON, CATHERINE F SMITH,
DONNA KAIN, MICHELLE COVI & DOUG
SOLOMON
EAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY
SOUTHERN SOCIOLOGY SOCIETY ANNUAL
MEETING
APRIL 8, 2011
Research
 Case study of hurricane risk and emergency communication
in eastern NC 2008-2010
We surveyed 20 counties and interviewed 6 counties indepth.
 Residents (year-round)
 Businesses and Organizations
Surveyed
1087
600
 Local Government Officials
(EMs, PIOs, county commissioners,
county managers)
NA
Interviewed
120
120
24
Presentation Agenda
• This presentation focuses on identifying those who
consider evacuation when a hurricane is
approaching the coast.
• It uses the results of telephone/internet surveys in
the 20 NC CAMA counties and
• Insights from interviews/focus groups in 6 counties
Households Respond to Severe Weather
 Many households take the threat seriously

68% reported that they had a disaster preparedness plan

76% know the location of an emergency shelter

91% know the evacuation route from their home

82% know if an evacuation order covers their home
Households Respond to Severe Weather
 Things are getting better and families are more
willing to plan for an emergency today




In our survey, 68% of respondents had a plan
After Hurricane Floyd, only 56% had a plan
After Hurricane Bonnie, only 49% had a plan
A Socioeconomic Impact Analysis for Hurricanes Bonnie, Dennis and
Floyd by John C. Whitehead, Marieke Van Willigen, Bob Edwards, Kenneth
Wilson and John Maiolo, the Final Report to North Carolina Division of
Emergency Management (HMGP 1240-0012) and North Carolina Sea Grant
(NCSU 1998-0617-08), June 2001.
Who has a plan?
Table 2
Factor Influences Having a Plan
Have a Plan
Exp(B)
Sig
Exp(B)
1.129
Sig
0.014
Social
Income
Background
Education
1.195
0.006
Variables
Age
1.156
0.080
Married
0.957
0.827
Children at Home
0.782
0.226
Length of Residence
0.972
0.045
Risk
Mobile Home, RV,Boat
0.743
0.211
1.113
0.681
Variables
Evacuation Covers Home
1.184
0.005
1.151
0.028
Neighbors Evacuate?
1.208
0.005
1.178
0.023
Live in a Surge Zone
1.590
0.036
1.552
0.064
Risk from Flooding
0.956
0.633
0.973
0.788
Risk from Wind
1.045
0.628
1.028
0.774
Constant
0.738
0.421
0.305
0.053
28.233(6)
.000
Model Chi-Square(df)
62.832(12)
CV Block Chi-Square(df)
44.894(6)
Risk Block Chi-Square(df)
17.938(6)
% Correct Predictions
Cox & Snell R2
28.233(6)
.000
0.000
0.006
0.000
70.1%
72.1%
0.036
0.082
When Severe Weather Threatens…
70
60
60
Residents
Percent
50
40
33
30
20
7
10
0
Stay
Leave
Gather more Info
Considerations
 “Once you think your safety may be at risk, what are
the most important considerations when deciding
whether or not to evacuate?”



Strength of the hurricane (93%)
Direction of the hurricane (78%)
A mandatory evacuation order (67%)
 People want to make their own decision but your
evacuation orders are part of their decision-making
process
Households Respond to Severe Weather
 14% reported at least one time they did not evacuate
when they should have
 Why:



did not feel threatened (28%)
did not realize how bad the storm would be (22%)
thought the storm was not severe or close enough (15%).
 While people are confident that they will make the
right decision, people make mistakes.
Who prepares to leave?
Table 3
Factor Influences Who Prepares to Evacuate
Prepare to Evacuate
Exp(B)
Social
Income
Background
Education
Variables
Age
Sig
Exp(B)
1.049
Married
Children at Home
Length of Residence
Risk
Mobile Home, RV,Boat
Variables
Evacuation Covers Home
Neighbors Evacuate?
Live in a Surge Zone
Risk from Flooding
Risk from Wind
Constant
Model Chi-Square(df)
% Correct Predictions
Cox & Snell R2
0.591
0.970
0.784
1.282
0.116
0.342
0.001
1.908
0.061
0.974
0.267
2.989
0.001
3.132
0.002
1.251
0.081
1.363
0.033
1.511
0.000
1.553
0.000
0.939
0.859
1.064
0.871
0.992
0.959
0.921
0.631
1.149
0.409
1.179
0.367
0.007
0.000
0.004
0.000
31.775(6)
.000
62.832(12)
44.894(6)
CV Block Chi-Square(df)
Risk Block Chi-Square(df)
Sig
31.775(6)
.000
17.938(6)
0.000
0.006
0.000
92.5%
72.1%
0.040
0.082
Who prepares to make a decision?
Table 4
Factor Influences Who Prepares to Decide
Prepare to Decide
Exp(B)
Social
Income
Background
Education
Variables
Age
Sig
Exp(B)
1.062
Married
Children at Home
Length of Residence
Risk
Mobile Home, RV,Boat
Variables
Evacuation Covers Home
Neighbors Evacuate?
Live in a Surge Zone
Risk from Flooding
Risk from Wind
Constant
Model Chi-Square(df)
% Correct Predictions
Cox & Snell R2
0.181
1.042
0.481
1.056
0.482
1.303
0.148
1.274
0.197
0.956
0.001
1.214
0.401
1.477
0.117
1.116
0.053
1.084
0.179
1.114
0.072
1.107
0.113
1.474
0.048
1.551
0.035
1.063
0.487
1.080
0.408
0.862
0.082
0.825
0.034
0.898
0.763
0.944
0.920
19.347(6)
.000
62.832(12)
44.894(6)
CV Block Chi-Square(df)
Risk Block Chi-Square(df)
Sig
19.347(6)
.000
17.938(6)
0.000
0.006
0.000
58.5%
72.1%
0.024
0.082
Who prepares to ride out the storm?
Table 5
Factor Influences Who Prepares to Ride Out the Storm
Prepare to Stay
Exp(B)
Social
Income
Background
Education
Variables
Age
Sig
Exp(B)
0.920
Married
Children at Home
Length of Residence
Risk
Mobile Home, RV,Boat
Variables
Evacuation Covers Home
Neighbors Evacuate?
Live in a Surge Zone
Risk from Flooding
Risk from Wind
Constant
Model Chi-Square(df)
% Correct Predictions
Cox & Snell R2
0.082
0.972
0.653
0.869
0.090
1.054
0.788
0.614
0.017
1.061
0.000
0.478
0.006
0.374
0.001
0.840
0.003
0.856
0.013
0.754
0.000
0.745
0.000
0.673
0.063
0.602
0.025
0.926
0.415
0.940
0.537
1.124
0.197
1.174
0.095
1.753
0.136
1.688
0.391
50.594(6)
.000
84.579(12)
30.694(6)
CV Block Chi-Square(df)
Risk Block Chi-Square(df)
Sig
50.594(6)
.000
53.884(12)
0.000
0.000
0.000
66.3%
68.8%
0.062
0.108
Conclusions -- Planning
 The risk variables show that people who know their
home is covered by an Evacuation Order, whose
Neighbors evacuate and who live in a Surge Zone, are
more likely to have a plan.
 Income and Education increase the likelihood of
having a plan and length of residence decreases it.
 When controlling for the background variables,
Knowing that your home is covered by an evacuation
order and having neighbors who evacuate still
increase the likelihood of having a plan.
Conclusions -- Evacuating
 Living in a Mobile Home, knowing that an
evacuation Order covers your home and having
neighbors who evacuate increase the likelihood that
a household will prepare to leave.
 Being married and length of residence decreases the
likelihood that you will prepare to evacuate but
having children living with you increases the
likelihood.
 After controlling for the background variables, the
same risk variables influence the likelihood of
preparing to leave.
Conclusions-- Deciding
 Knowing that an evacuation order covers your home
and living in a storm surge zone increases the
likelihood of preparing to make a decision when a
storm approaches.
 When other variables are controlled, length of
residence, living in a storm surge zone increase the
likelihood of preparing to make a decision while a
higher subjective risk of wind damage decreases the
likelihood
Conclusions – Riding Out the Storm
 Living in a risky structure, knowing that evacuation
orders cover your home and having neighbors who
evacuate decrease the likelihood that you will prepare to
ride out the storm.
 When other variables are controlled, having children
living in the home decreases the likelihood that you will
prepare to ride out the storm while longer length of
residence increases it. Living in a risky structure,
knowing that your home is covered by evacuation orders,
having neighbors who evacuate and living in a storm
surge zone decreases the likelihood that folks will
prepare to ride out the storm.
Acknowledgements
 “Hurricane Risk Perception and Emergency
Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones”
 Catherine F. Smith, Donna J. Kain, Kenneth
Wilson Research Assistants Michelle Covi,
Douglas Solomon, and others
 Supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) Sea Grant North Carolina
and East Carolina University
For this report in full. . .
Http://www.ecu.edu/riskcomm