Transcript Social Security Contributions and Return Migration among Older Male Mexican Immigrants Emma Aguila

Social Security Contributions and
Return Migration among Older Male
Mexican Immigrants
Emma Aguila
University of Southern California (USC)
Alma Vega
University of Pennsylvania (UPenn)
17th Annual Meeting of the Retirement Research Consortium
August 6, 2015
Research Questions
• To what extent did male Mexican return migrants
contribute to the U.S. Social Security system?
• Are male return migrants who might have been
legalized by IRCA 1986 more likely to have contributed
to the U.S. Social Security system?
Note: IRCA-Immigration Reform and Control Act
Motivation
• Previous literature focuses on the effects immigrants on
the U.S. Social Security system (e.g. Gustman and
Steinmeier, 1998)
• Lack of evidence on return migrants and their effects on
the U.S. Social Security system
• Policy debate on immigration reform and implications for
the Social Security system
• In 2007, $661 billion unclaimed earnings in Social Security
Administration’s Earnings Suspense file (Olsen and Hudson,
2009)
• Analyze a difficult to reach population absent from U.S.
data sets using rich panel data from Mexico
Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS)
• MHAS 2003 and 2012 similar to HRS
• Oversamples regions in Mexico with the highest
quantity of migrants to the U.S.
• Detailed information on migration histories to the U.S.
Wave
Response rate
Respondents
2001
91.8%
15,186
2003
93.3%
14,250
2012
88.1%
18,465
Research Questions
• To what extent did male Mexican return migrants
contribute to the U.S. Social Security system?
• Are male return migrants who might have been
legalized by IRCA 1986 more likely to have contributed
to the U.S. Social Security system?
Note: IRCA-Immigration Reform and Control Act
Our sample : Male return migrants Age 50+
reported having lived in reported having ever
the United States at
contributed to the U.S.
one point
Social Security System
receive or expect to
receive U.S. Social
security benefits
Characteristics of male return migrants
who did and did not contribute to U.S.
Social Security system
2012
Characteristics of Male Return Migrants
U.S. Citizenship Status* (%)
US Citizen
50%
4.8%
1.2%
US Permanent
Resident
40%
16.4%
6.0%
65.8%
80.8%
Neither
Contributed
23.9%
20.5%
10%
0.0%
0.5%
0%
30%
20%
12.9%
11.4%
Missing
Don't Know
Speaks English* (%)
50%
Didn't contribute
* differences statistically significant
100%
0%
Contributed
Didn't contribute
* differences statistically significant
Characteristics of Male Return Migrants
Main Employment Ever in US* (%)
50%
40%
Contributed
36.0%
28.5%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Contributed
Didn't contribute
* differences statistically significant
Didn’t
Contribute
Years in US*
Mean
7.1
SD
10.5
Median
3.0
Total Years worked*
Mean
44.7
SD
14.7
Median
46.0
* differences statistically significant
3.9
5.9
1.0
42.3
15.6
44.0
Characteristics of Male Return Migrants
Those who contributed…
Years in the U.S.*
Years in the U.S.*
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
1-9
Contributed
10-19
20+
Didn’t Contribute
* differences statistically significant
1-9
10-19
Receive or Expect to Receive
20+
Don't Receive or Expect to Receive
* differences statistically significant
Who are more likely to contribute to the U.S. Social
Security system?
• Males with completed college are more likely to have
contributed than males with no schooling
• U.S. citizens or legal permanent residents were more likely
to report having contributed
• Those who spent 10-19 years and 20+ years in the U.S. are
more likely to contribute than those who spent 1-9 years
Who are more likely to transition to retirement?
• Dividing their careers between Mexico and the U.S., return
migrants may not qualify for Social Security benefits in
either country upon reaching retirement age
• Those who spent 1-9 years in the U.S. are less likely to
retire compared to those who had never been to the U.S.
• Those who spent 20+ years in the U.S. are more likely to
retire compared to those who had never been to the U.S.
Research Questions
• To what extent did male Mexican return migrants
contribute to the U.S. Social Security system?
• Are male return migrants who might have been
legalized by IRCA 1986 more likely to have contributed
to the U.S. Social Security system?
Work in Progress
Note: IRCA-Immigration Reform and Control Act
IRCA (Immigration Reform and Control Act) 1986
• IRCA 1986 resulted in the legalization of 2.7 million undocumented
immigrants, 70.9% of whom were Mexican born (Borjas and Tienda,
1993)
• Two legalization programs:
1. Farm workers who could demonstrate they had worked in the
United States for at least 90 days during the 12 months preceding
May 1, 1986 (SAW)
2. Immigrants who could prove continuous residence in the United
States after January 1, 1982 (LAW)
• 49.3% of those legalized under LAW were 30 and older in 1990
(Borjas and Tienda, 1993)
• 49.3% were 52 years and older (born before 1961) in 2012
Characteristics of IRCA Male Return Migrants
U.S. Citizenship Status* (%)
Speaks English* (%)
50%
US Citizen
US Permanent
Resident
10.6%
1.5%
45.5%
40%
30.3%
7.4%
30%
59.1%
Neither
77.8%
19.0%
20%
Missing
Don't Know
0.0%
12.9%
10%
0.0%
0.4%
0%
IRCA Migrant
50%
Not IRCA Migrant
* differences statistically significant
100%
0%
IRCA Migrant
Not IRCA Migrant
* differences statistically significant
Characteristics of IRCA Male Return Migrants
Main Employment Ever in U.S.*
(%)
70%
65.2%
60%
50%
40%
28.0%
30%
20%
10%
0%
IRCA Migrant
Not IRCA Migrant
* differences statistically significant
IRCA
Migrant
Years in US*
17.7
Mean
11.7
SD
14.5
Median
Total Years Worked
43.4
Mean
12.5
SD
44.0
Median
* differences statistically significant
Not IRCA
Migrant
3.3
5.4
1.0
43.2
15.6
45.0
Characteristics of IRCA Male Return Migrants
Contributed* and Receive or
expect to receive benefits* (%)
60%
Years in the U.S.* (%)
100%
56.1%
92.1%
90%
50%
80%
70%
40%
32.1%
60%
30%
50%
20%
40%
14.1%
30%
10%
1.1%
0%
Contributed
IRCA Migrant
Receive or Expect to
Receive
Not IRCA Migrant
* differences statistically significant
43.8%
34.4%
21.9%
20%
6.3%
10%
1.5%
0%
1-9
IRCA Migrant
10-19
20+
Not IRCA Migrant
* differences statistically significant
Findings
• Return migrants that contributed to the U.S. Social Security
System:
• 5% receive or expect to receive benefits
• Higher proportion are U.S. citizens or permanent residents
• More years in the U.S. (mean=7.1) but on average not eligible for
benefits
• Similar total years worked (44.7) to those that didn’t contribute
• Are more likely to have completed college, be U.S. citizens/residents,
and spent more years in the U.S.
• Compared to those who had never been to the U.S. those who spent
20+ years in the U.S. are more likely to retire, and those who spent 19 years in the U.S. are less likely to retire
Findings
• IRCA eligible return migrants (work in progress):
• 14.1% receive or expect to receive benefits
• Higher proportion report their main job in the U.S. at some point
• More years in the U.S. (mean=17.7) and potentially eligible for Social
Security benefits
• Differences between IRCA and not IRCA return migrants will
help us better understand the implications of an immigration
reform