Transcript Thursday week7

Reaction to This Week Tonight??!!
Project
Lifecycle
Idea
Find
data
Collect
data
Graphs
Idea
Tests
Publish?
Abandon?
Collect
more
data?
More
tests?
Idea
Publish?
Presentations
Web
Replicate
Media
Idea
Please ask 5 friends "So, did you see that scientific study about how
eating chocolate can help you loose weight?"
Remember how many say "yes" then tell them the story.
Our World: Psychologists Tout Surprising New Findings
https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2013/12/02/headlines-from-a-mathematically-literate-world/
Our World: Psychologists Tout Surprising New Findings
Mathematically Literate World: Psychologists Promise to Replicate
Surprising New Findings Before Touting Them
https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2013/12/02/headlines-from-a-mathematically-literate-world/
Our World: One Dead in Shark Attack; See Tips for Shark
Safety Inside
https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2013/12/02/headlines-from-a-mathematically-literate-world/
Our World: One Dead in Shark Attack; See Tips for Shark
Safety Inside
Mathematically Literate World: One Dead in Tragic,
Highly Unlikely Event; See Tips for Something Useful
Inside
https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2013/12/02/headlines-from-a-mathematically-literate-world/
Our World: Local Heat Wave Seen as Sign of Global Warming
Our World: Still No Broad Agreement on Global Warming
https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2013/12/02/headlines-from-a-mathematically-literate-world/
Our World: Local Heat Wave Seen as Sign of Global Warming
Mathematically Literate World: Local Heat Wave Not Seen as
Meaningful Indicator of Global Trends
Our World: Still No Broad Agreement on Global Warming
Mathematically Literate World: Still 90% Agreement on Global
Warming
https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2013/12/02/headlines-from-a-mathematically-literate-world/
Our World: Average Football Player Earns $3 Million,
Lasts 4 Years in NFL
https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2013/12/02/headlines-from-a-mathematically-literate-world/
Our World: Average Football Player Earns $3 Million,
Lasts 4 Years in NFL
Mathematically Literate World: Average Football Player
Earns $0 Million, Lasts 4 Years in High School
https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2013/12/02/headlines-from-a-mathematically-literate-world/
On recent airrage study published in PPNAS
. . . it’s so frustrating. I post and post and post and only a few thousand people read.
Planet Money tweets and reaches 300,000 people. And NPR is so . . . official. Being
on NPR, it’s like being on Gladwell or Ted, it’s the ultimate badge of seriousness.
http://andrewgelman.com/
NPR’s Planet Money has
320K followers!
What should the media do?
-
State the sample size
State the study design
Remain skeptical after just one study
Mention pre-registered hypotheses or intent of study
Mention needing to understand mechanism
Describe implications for every-day decision-making
Report on replication attempts and overall
conclusions
Sensu: http://andrewgelman.com/2016/05/04/a-template-for-future-news-stories-about-scientific-breakthroughs/
What should the media do?
-
State the sample size
State the study design
Remain skeptical after just one study
Mention pre-registered hypotheses or intent of study
Mention needing to understand mechanism
Describe implications for every-day decision-making
Report on replication attempts and overall
conclusions
Andrew: This post has the wrong title. May I suggest a more catchy title: “Three
ways a scientific finding report can kill your social media shares and get you fired”
Sensu: http://andrewgelman.com/2016/05/04/a-template-for-future-news-stories-about-scientific-breakthroughs/
New study on NPR just last week:
http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/04/27/475599849/a-concussion-can-lead-to-sleep-problemsthat-last-for-years
What questions are running
through your mind???
Questions for Discussion Bygren et al. BMC Genetics 2014, 15:12
1. What did you think of the study design? Be ready to
describe the basic approach. How might you improve it?
2. Were the statistical analyses consistent with the study
design? Be ready to describe the basic approach. What did
you think of it?
3. Discuss their conclusions. Be ready to summarize these. Do
you agree? Why or why not?
4. What do you think are the most important caveats? Write a
few possible headlines that are honest.
5. How would you design a simulation study to explore the
likelihood of observing results like these given the basic
study design. What are the key elements of the simulation
study?
6. How do you think the life-cycle of this project looked behind
–the-scenes? How many comparisons do you think they
did? What key questions would you like to ask the authors?
Climate, Belief, Science, and Media
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124008307