Transcript Sliding goals in student achievement?

Fixed and Sliding Goals in Education?
A tiny example of a famous systems
insight, applied to education
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
1
Striving to Reach an Achievement Goal
Goal for student
achievement
Gap between
achievement and Goal
Achievement or
understanding in
a course
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
2
Striving to Reach an Achievement Goal
Goal for student
achievement
Gap between
achievement and Goal
Achievement or
understanding in
a course
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Time to close
the gap
Pressure to close
the gap
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
3
Striving to Reach an Achievement Goal
Goal for student
achievement
Gap between
achievement and Goal
Achievement or
understanding in
a course
Striving to
reach goal
(B)
Time to close
the gap
Pressure to close
the gap
Effort expended to
close the gap
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
4
Striving to Reach an Achievement Goal
Goal for student
achievement
Gap between
achievement and Goal
Achievement or
understanding in
a course
Striving to
reach goal
(B)
Time to close
the gap
Pressure to close
the gap
Effort expended to
close the gap
Pressure to devote
time and effort
elsewhere
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
5
Striving (But Falling a Bit Short)
4
100
2
80
0
60
0
10
20
Time (Week)
30
40
Pressure to close the gap : sliding goals1
Goal for student achievement : sliding goals1
Achievement or understanding in a course : sliding goals1
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
6
Where Does the Goal Come From?
Goal for student
achievement
Gap between
achievement and Goal
Achievement or
understanding in
a course
Striving to
reach goal
(B)
Time to close
the gap
Pressure to close
the gap
Effort expended to
close the gap
Pressure to devote
time and effort
elsewhere
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
7
Where Does the Goal Come From?
Goal for student
achievement
Sliding goal
(R)
Gap between
achievement and Goal
Achievement or
understanding in
a course
Striving to
reach goal
(B)
Time to close
the gap
Pressure to close
the gap
Effort expended to
close the gap
Pressure to devote
time and effort
elsewhere
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
8
A Flexible Goal Can Slide
Sliding_goals
4
100
2
80
0
60
0
8.8
17.5
Time (Week)
26.3
35
Pressure to close the gap : TAG 12
Goal for student achievement : TAG 12
Achievement or understanding in a course : TAG 12
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
9
Sliding Goals in Sophistication of School
Texts?School Texts Have Gotten Simpler Over Time
• The most difficult readers were generally published before 1918. By modern
standards, Professor McGuffy’s pre- and post-Civil War readers were very
difficult.
• Average sentence length of 1963-91 books was shorter than that of 1945-1962
books.
• Mean length dropped from 20 to 14 words, “the equivalent of dropping one or
two clauses from every sentence”
• Wording of schoolbooks after 1963 for 8th graders was as simple as that in
books used by 5th graders before 1963
• Wording of 12th grade texts after 1963 was simpler than the wording of 7th
grade texts before 1963.
• Today’s mean sixth, seventh, and eighth grade readers are simpler than fifth
grade readers were before World War II.
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
10
Could Declining Sophistication of Texts
Account for Declining SAT Verbal Scores?
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
11
Sliding Goals in School Texts?
Sophistication of
school texts
Sliding goal
(R)
Gap between
capabilities and goal
Ability of students to
handle text sophistication
Pressures on students to
devote time and effort
elsewhere
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Striving to
reach goal
(B)
Pressure to close
the gap
Effort expended to
close the gap
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
12
A Formal Model to Fit to the Data
Time to
adjust goal
Sophistication of
texts
Sliding goal
(R)
Gap between
capabilities and goal
Striving to
reach goal
(B)
SAT verbal
Effort expended
to close the gap
Pressure to devote
time and effort
elsewhere
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Time to close
the gap
Pressure to close
the gap
Time to act
on gap
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
13
Historical and Simulated SAT Verbal Scores
Sliding_goals Fit
500
475
450
425
400
0
5
10
15
20
Time (Year)
25
30
35
SAT verbal : sliding goals fit3
SAT verbal : HistoricalSAT
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
14
The Endogenous Point of View
Causal forces (school texts?) are not
exogenous but feed back upon themselves
“System as cause”
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
15
Exogenous Endogenous
Predominant Mode of Analysis
The “X/N” Matrix
Striving for
understanding and
leverage, but failing
JK
Achieving
understanding and
leverage
JJJ
Accepting fate,
Predicting, Preparing
KL
Confused, Misguided,
Misguiding
LLL
Exogenous
Endogenous
True (Predominant) State of Affairs
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
16
School Texts Studies
• Marilyn Jager Adams, Advancing our Students’ Language and
Literacy, The Challenge of Complex Texts, The American
Educator 34, 4 (winter 2010-11)
• Hayes, Wolfer & Wolfe (1996), Schoolbook Simplification and
Its Relation to the Decline in SAT-Verbal Scores, American
Educational Research Journal 33 (2): 498-508.
• http://www.soc.cornell.edu/hayes-lexicalanalysis/schoolbooks/Papers/HayesWolferAndWolf1996.pdf
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
17
Optimal Parameters for SAT Fit
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Maximum of simulations/optimizations found at:
Pressure to devote time and effort elsewhere = 7.99971
Time to act on gap = 17.2977
*Time to adjust goal = 37.935
Simulations = 25138
Optimizations = 107
Pass = 3
Payoff = -711.039
--------------------------------The final payoff is -711.039
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011
18