Transcript Ichimoku Swing Trading

Ichimoku Swing Trading
Robert C. Joiner
L. A. Conference
2012
Eastern Indicators:
•
Ichimoku
•
Heiken-Ashi
•
Renko
The Present:
Tenkan-Sen = 9 moving average
Kijun-Sen = 26 moving average
Key points on TenkanSen & Kijun-Sen:
•
Both lines act as Support & Resistance
•
Price crossing the Tenkan-Sen is the first sign of possible
reversal
•
Tenkan-Sen crossing up and through Kijun-Sen is more
Bullish above the Kumo
•
Tenkan-Sen crossing down and through Kijun-Sen is more
Bearish below the Kumo
The Future:
Kumo
Senkou Span A = (9 + 26 moving averages)/2
Senkou Span B = (hi & lows P52)/2
…then drop those answers 26 periods into the future.
Key Points on Kumo:
•
Kumo acts as both Support and Resistance
•
Thick Kumo is stronger than thin Kumo
•
Price above Kumo is Bullish
•
Price below Kumo is Bearish
•
Rising far right edge of Kumo is Bullish
•
Falling far right edge of Kumo is Bearish
The Past:
Chiku = Closing price of current candle
…and drop that 26 periods into the past.
Key Points on Chiku:
•
Chiku above the historical price curve is Bullish
•
Chiku below the historical price curve is Bearish
•
Chiku crossing the historical price curve is predictive of
a new trend, but should not be anticipated
S&P-500 August 2011
Between
9-19-11 and 10-10-11
I posted 16 trades
…..
All shorts.
S&P-500 February 2012
Between
12-29-11 and 2-24-12
I posted 39 trades
…..
38 longs. 1 short.
Western Indicators:
•
Parabolic SAR
•
Money Stream
•
TSV
•
ADX w/DI+ and DI-
Parabolic SAR
Money Stream
TSV – Time Segmented Volume
ADX w/DI+ DI-
Key Points on
Western Indicators:
•
Create intentional chaos. Use different indicators that
measure different variables on different moving
averages.
•
Parabolic SAR is the weakest indicator, but it makes me
think twice about entries and exits.
•
Money Stream + TSV = “Money Indicators”…I want
them to be in harmony relative to their moving
averages.
Western Indicators,
cont.
•
ADX supports the current dominant trend, DI+ or DI-.
•
I like to see ADX rising from below 10 and moving above
20+.
•
The further ADX climbs above 40, the higher the probability of
profit taking by investors.
•
I prefer steady upper movement of the dominant DI, creating
divergence with the weaker DI, rather than quick spikes.
PXP – long on 2-7 @ 40.92
RVBD – 2-7-12…did not trade
Entries & Exits:
•
Ideally, you enter a long trade at a moment of weakness
within the context of strength.
•
We set 3% and 6% Targets, liquidating 40% of shares on
each Target.
•
We move our stop to break-even on the remaining shares
after the first target is hit, and use a moveable stop
on the remaining shares.
Bought long on 1-6-12 @ $9.78…hit 3% on 1-9-12…hit 6%
on 1-10-12…moved stop 8 times…hit stop of $12.53 on 2-712…total profit on 20% position was 28% ROI.
How do you find
stocks?
•
Scans create candidates; they do not create trades.
•
Scan for Eastern crossovers: Tenkan-Sen crossing
Kijun-Sen, Chiku crossing the historical price
curve, price moving above Kumo, etc.
•
Scan for Western crossovers: DI+ crossing DI-, rising ADX
values, Money indicators crossing their moving
averages, etc.
PVT scan from 2-25-12
“Is this a High Probability trade?”
What would you do
on the following
stocks?
Let’s see how you did.
Questions
&
Answers