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The Population of New York City
Recent Trends and Ongoing Challenges
Presentation for the Macaulay Honors
College of the City University of New York
February 4, 2015
Joseph Salvo
POPULATION DIVISION
TM
New York City is Big and Dynamic
Population Change for the 10 Largest Cities in the U.S., 2000 to 2013
Ranked by Population in 2013
Geographic Area
Total Population
Population Change
2000-2013
Number
Percent
Rank NYC and Boroughs
2000
2013
1
2
3
New York, NY*
Los Angeles, CA*
Chicago, IL
Brooklyn, NY
Queens, NY*
Houston, TX*
Manhattan, NY
Philadelphia, PA
Phoenix, AZ*
Bronx, NY
San Antonio, TX*
San Diego, CA*
Dallas, TX*
San Jose, CA*
8,008,278
3,694,820
2,896,016
2,465,326
2,229,379
1,953,631
1,537,195
1,517,550
1,321,045
1,332,650
1,144,646
1,223,400
1,188,580
894,943
8,405,837
3,884,307
2,718,782
2,592,149
2,296,175
2,195,914
1,626,159
1,553,165
1,513,367
1,418,733
1,409,019
1,355,896
1,257,676
998,537
397,559
189,487
-177,234
126,823
66,796
242,283
88,964
35,615
192,322
86,083
264,373
132,496
69,096
103,594
5.0
5.1
-6.1
5.1
3.0
12.4
5.8
2.3
14.6
6.5
23.1
10.8
5.8
11.6
Sacramento, CA*
Staten Island, NY*
407,018
443,728
479,686
472,621
72,668
28,893
17.9
6.5
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
35
3
*Achieved population peak in 2013
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census PL 94-171 Files; 2013 American Community Survey
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized)
New York City
2000-2010
Population Change
Natural Increase
Net Migration
Net International
Migration
Net Domestic
Migration
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
Thousands
Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data 1970-2010;
New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene;
United States Department of Homeland Security
as revised by Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Changes in the Population Dynamic
on the Horizon?
Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized)
New York City
2000-2010
Population Change
Natural Increase
Net Migration
-150
-100
-50
0
Thousands
50
100
Net Domestic
Migration
2010-2013
-150
-100
-50
0
Thousands
Net International
Migration
50
100
Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data 1970-2010;
New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene;
United States Department of Homeland Security
as revised by Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Migration Patterns for Persons Filing Tax Returns
New York City, 1985-2010
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
In Migration
Out Migration
40,000
20,000
Migration data are based on year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the IRS.
Does not include the income tax returns filed by those living abroad.
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
0
Source: Statistics of Income Division, Internal Revenue Service
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Changing Origins of In-migrants to New York City,
1995-2000 and 2008-2012
1995-2000
Abroad
49.8%
50 States
& Puerto
Rico
50.2%
2008-2012
Abroad
33.8%
50 States &
Puerto Rico
66.2%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 2008-2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Non-family Householders with a Head of Household Under 65 Years
by New York City Neighborhoods,* 2000 and 2008-2012
Change
2000 to 2008-2012
2008-2012
New York City Total = 29.1%
Change
Percent
55.0% or more
(8 neighborhoods)
Gain of 2,000 or more
(14 neighborhoods)
45.0% to 54.9%
(11)
1,000 to 1,999
(15)
35.0% to 44.9%
(14)
250 to 999
(45)
25.0% to 34.9%
(41)
-249 to 249
(81)
-250 to -999
(24)
Loss of -1,000 or more
(9)
Less than 25.0% (114)
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are
aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New
York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs).
Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries
and their associated names may not definitively
represent neighborhoods.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Census-Summary File 1, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-Summary File
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
How the Foreign-Born Define
New York City
Total Population by Nativity
New York City, 1970 to 2012
1970
6,457,740
1980
5,401,440
1990
Percent
Foreign-born
1,437,058
18.2
1,670,199
5,239,633
23.6
28.4
2,082,931
2000
5,137,246
2,871,032
35.9
2012
5,200,105
3,136,592
37.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Millions
Native-Born
Foreign-Born
Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1970 to 2000; 2012 American Community Survey
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Top Ten Sources of the Foreign-born Population
New York City and the United States, 2012
New York City
United States
Dominican
Republic
13.0%
Mexico
28.2%
China*
11.2%
All Other
40.6%
All Other
44.6%
Mexico
5.8%
China*
5.6%
Jamaica
5.7%
Guyana
4.5%
Ecuador
4.1%
Colombia
2.5%
India
2.6%
Haiti
3.2%
Trinidad & Tobago
2.9%
Total = 3,154,955
India
4.8%
Guatemala
2.2%
Dominican
Republic
2.4% Korea
2.7%
Philippines
Vietnam 4.6%
Cuba
2.7%
3.1%
El Salvador
3.1%
Total = 40,738,224
* Includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Total Foreign-born by Neighborhood*
New York City, 2008-2012
WoodlawnWakefield
WilliamsbridgeOlinville
V Crtlndt Vlg
Co-op
City
Norwood
Marble HillInwood
Wash
Hts N
Beffor Pk
Fordham N
Bronx
AllertonPelham Gardens
Bronxdale
Kbridge
Hghts
Uni Hts
Morris Hts
Fordham S
Pelham
Pkwy
Mt Hope
E Tremont
Wash
Hts S
Cntrl Harlem NPolo Grounds
Morningside
Hts
Central
E
Harlem S Harlem
N
Foreign-born
Yorkville
UESCarnegie Hill
Lincoln
Square
Clinton
15,000 to 24,999
9,000 to 14,499
(7 neighborhoods)
SoHoTriBeCaCivic CenterLittle Italy
Chinatown
Astoria
Lower
E
Side
Middle
Village
Ridgewood
Bushwick
N
Bushwick
S
Stuyvesant
Hts
Queensboro Hill
Forest
Hills
Kew
Gardens
Hills
Kew
Gardens
Glendale
PomonokFlushing HtsHillcrest
BriarwoodJamaica Hills
Richmond Hill
Jamaica EstatesHolliswood
Jamaica
S Jamaica
Bellerose
Queens
Village
Hollis
St.
Albans
Cypress HillsCity Line
Baisley
S Ozone Pk
E New York
(PA Ave)
Oakland
Grdns
Fresh MdwsUtopia
Woodhaven
Crown
Hts
N
Pk SlopeGowanus
Auburndale
Corona
Rego
Pk
Maspeth
N SideS Side
(53)
Brooklyn
N Corona
Elmhurst-Maspeth
Greenpoint
Douglas ManorDouglastonLittle Neck
BaysideBayside Hills
Flushing
East
Flushing
Elmhurst
Hunters PtSunnysideW Maspeth
Battery Pk CityLower MN
(63)
Murray Hill
East
Elmhurst
Woodside
E
Vl
College
Pt
LaGuardia
Airport
Steinway
Turtle Bay
-E Midtown
Bedford
Under 9,000
Old
Astoria
Jackson
Hts
Murray HillKips Bay
W
Vl
(37)
Queens
Whitestone
Lenox HillRoosevelt Island
Hudson YardsChelseaFlatironUnion Square
(28)
Mott HavenPort Morris
E
Harlem
S
UWS
25,000 to 39,999
Melrose SMott Haven N
Manhattanville
Manhattan
Pkchester
W FarmsBronx River
SoundviewBruckner
SoundviewCastle HillClason PtHarding Pk
E CncrsCncrs Vl
W
MorrisaniaCncrs
Melrose
Hamilton
Hts
New York City Total = 3,136,592 (2012 Data)
40,000 or more
Highbridge
Pk
Laurelton
East New York
Brownsville
Prospect Lefferts GardensWingate
Sunset
Pk W
E FlatbushFarragut
Borough
Pk
Staten
Island
New SpringvilleBloomfieldTravis
Canarsie
Flatbush
Dyker
Heights
Midwood
Flatlands
Bensonhurst
W
Bath
Beach
Madison
Bensonhurst Homecrest
E
Gravesend
SeagateConey Island
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are
aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of
New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas
(PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints,
NTA boundaries and their associated names may
not definitively represent neighborhoods.
John F Kennedy
International Airport
Erasmus
Sunset
Pk E
Bay Ridge
Rosedale
RugbyRemsen Vl
GeorgetownMarine PkBergen BeachMill Basin
Far RockawayBayswater
Sheepshead BayGerritsen Beach
Manhattan Beach
Brighton
W
Beach
Brighton
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey—Summary File
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Changes and Persistent Challenges
Population Growth by Race/Hispanic Origin
New York City, 2000-2012
Percent
Change =
-3.9
39.0
11.4
Asian nonhispanic
Hispanic
-2.4
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Black nonhispanic
White nonhispanic
2000
2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Censuses-Summary File 1; 2012 American Community Survey
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Hispanic and Asian Subgroups
New York City, 2012
Hispanic
Asian*
Vietnamese
1%
Japanese
2%
Honduran
2%
Salvadoran
2%
Other
12%
Puerto
Rican
31%
Colombian
4%
Ecuadorian
8%
Other
5%
Pakistani
4%
Total = 2,377,486
Bangladeshi
5%
Filipino
7%
Total = 1,064,658
Chinese**
48%
Korean
9%
Mexican
14%
Dominican
Republic
27%
*Includes a small number of Asians who are of Hispanic origin.
** Includes Taiwanese
Asian Indian
19%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey- 3 Year Estimates
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Persons by English Language Ability
New York City, 2012
Speaks
language
other than
English
at home
49%
3,833,928
Not
English
Proficient
1,789,858
23%
English
Proficient
2,044,070
26%
Speaks
English at
Home
3,962,428
51%
Total Persons Ages 5 and Over = 7,796,356
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Limited English Proficient Population
by Language Spoken at Home
New York City, 2012
Number
Total LEP
Percent
1,789,858
100.0
882,606
305,734
115,371
54,237
44,568
43,992
26,953
24,270
23,799
49.3
17.1
6.4
3.0
2.5
2.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
Top LEP Languages
Spanish
Chinese*
Russian
French Creole
Bengali
Korean
Italian
Polish
Arabic
* Includes Chinese, Cantonese, Mandarin, and Formosan
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Percent of Population* Not Proficient in English
by Neighborhood Tabulation Area**
New York City, 2008-2012
Bronx
New York City Total = 23.3%
Percent Not Proficient in English
50.0% or more
(8 neighborhoods)
40.0% to 49.9%
(14)
30.0% to 39.9%
(35)
23.0% to 29.9%
(31)
Less than 23.0%
(100)
Manhattan
Queens
Brooklyn
Staten
Island
* Population 5 years and over
** Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are
aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of
New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas
(PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints,
NTA boundaries and their associated names may
not definitively represent neighborhoods.
20
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Percent College Graduates by Neighborhood Tabulation Area*
New York City, 2008-2012
Bronx
18.1%
New York City Total = 34.0%
Percent Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
60.0% or more
(20 neighborhoods)
40.0% to 59.9%
(26)
30.0% to 39.9%
(34)
20.0% to 29.9%
(58)
Less than 20.0%
(50)
Manhattan
58.2%
Queens
29.9%
Top Neighborhoods
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
West Village
Upper East Side-Carnegie Hill
Brooklyn Heights-Cobble Hill
Turtle Bay-East Midtown
Lincoln Square
Brooklyn
29.8%
Lowest Attainment
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Williamsburg
North Corona
Longwood
Claremont-Bathgate
Hunts Point
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are
aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of
New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas
(PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints,
NTA boundaries and their associated names may
not definitively represent neighborhoods.
Staten
Island
29.0%
21
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Shares of Aggregate Household Income by Quintile
New York City, 1980-2011 and United States, 2011
New York City
Percent Aggregate Income
100
75
U.S.
Top 20% of
households
have
aggregate
income =
47.2
5th Quintile
50.8
56.4
56.7
50.8
4th Quintile
50
3rd Quintile
24.9
23.7
23.0
21.3
21.5
2nd Quintile
25
0
15.8
14.9
13.2
12.7
8.8
8.2
7.1
6.8
8.5
3.2
2.4
2.0
2.3
3.2
1980
1990
2000
2011
2011
14.5
1st Quintile
22
Source: 1980 and 1990 PUMS, 2000 U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Poverty Rate by Neighborhood Tabulation Area*
New York City, 2008-2012
Bronx
29.3%
New York City Total = 19.9%
Poverty Rate
45.0% or more
(4 neighborhoods)
35.0% to 44.9%
(15)
25.0% to 34.9%
(32)
15.0% to 24.9%
(48)
Less than 15.0%
(89)
Manhattan
17.5%
Queens
14.4%
Top Neighborhoods
1. Williamsburg
2. Belmont
Brooklyn
22.7%
3. Claremont-Bathgate
4. Hunts Point
5. East Tremont
Staten
Island
11.3%
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are
aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of
New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas
(PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints,
NTA boundaries and their associated names may
not definitively represent neighborhoods.
23
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Persons with Ratio of Income to Poverty Level of 1.00 to 1.99
by Neighborhood Tabulation Area*
Bronx
24.5%
New York City, 2008-2012
New York City = 19.7%
Percent
30.0% or more
(6 neighborhoods)
25.0% to 29.9%
(35)
20.0% to 24.9%
(48)
15.0% to 19.9%
(43)
Less than 15.0%
(56)
Manhattan
15.4%
Queens
19.3%
Top Neighborhoods
1. North Corona
2. Sunset Park East
Brooklyn
21.2%
3. Mott Haven-Port Morris
4. Melrose South-Mott Haven North
5. Highbridge
Staten
Island
12.8%
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are
aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of
New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas
(PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints,
NTA boundaries and their associated names may
not definitively represent neighborhoods.
24
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Percent of Population with no Health Insurance Coverage
by Neighborhood Tabulation Area*
New York City, 2008-2012
Bronx
15.9%
New York City = 14.3%
Percent Uninsured
25.0% or more
(9 neighborhoods)
20.0% to 24.9%
(20)
15.0% to 19.9%
(49)
10.0% to 14.9%
(49)
Less than 10.0%
(61)
Manhattan
10.9%
Queens
17.6%
Top Neighborhoods
1. North Corona
Brooklyn
13.8%
2. Bushwick North
3. East Elmhurst
4. Elmhurst
5. Corona
Staten
Island
7.7%
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are
aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of
New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas
(PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints,
NTA boundaries and their associated names may
not definitively represent neighborhoods.
25
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Population Projections
Population Projections by Borough
New York City, 2010 and 2040
New York City
2010: 8,242,624
2040: 9,025,145
% Change: 9.5
Bronx
1,385,108
1,579,245
14.0
Manhattan
1,585,873
1,691,617
6.7
Queens
2,250,002
2,412,649
7.2
Brooklyn
2,552,911
2,840,525
11.3
Staten Island
468,730
501,109
6.9
Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population Projections
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Projections for the Population 65 and
Over by Borough
New York City, 2010 and 2040
New York City
2010: 1,002,208
2040: 1,409,708
% Change: 40.7
Bronx
145,882
228,476
56.6
Manhattan
214,153
277,444
29.6
Queens
288,219
377,060
30.8
Brooklyn
294,610
428,845
45.6
Staten Island
59,344
97,883
64.9
Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population Projections
Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Data Links
• DCP Population Division Web site:
www.nyc.gov/population
• New York City Census FactFinder:
www.nyc.gov/cff
• Census Bureau Web site:
www.census.gov