Transcript PENGELOLAAN AIR HIJAU DAN KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN

MK. PENGELOLAAN SDALH
AIR HIJAU
&
KELESTARIAN
LINGKUNGAN
smno.psdl.ppsub.2013
Sustainable development and innovation
Water, ecohydrology and energy
EPFL, Lausanne 3 March 2009
Food and environmental sustainability
– The water perspective
_________________________
Professor M.Falkenmark
Stockholm International Water Institute
Stockholm Resilience Center. 2009
KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN:
Environmental sustainability
__________________________
Non-undermining of the life support system
Apa peranan air bersih – freshwater ?
 sebagai ”DARAH” bagi BIOSPHERE
Air : Inti dari sistem penunjang kehidupan
Air = Denominator Umum
* bloodstream of the biosphere
* life elexir for human society
DUA MACAM BENTUK AIR
HUJAN
M.Falkenmark March 09
NERACA AIR GLOBAL
Precipitation
100 %
65 %
35 %
M.Falkenmark March 09
Fungsi-fungsi air
aquatic
ecosystems
Kesehatan
body
functions
income raising
energy
(hydropower, cooling)
socioeconomic
production
habitat
water
functions
carrier
erosion,
pollutant
transport
biomass
production
food, timber, biofuels
M.Falkenmark March 09
Ecosystem protection
__________________________
• WHY
- fundamental roles in life support
• WHAT
system
- specific landscape component
- ecosystem functioning/ resilience
”
• HOW
- determinant identification
- minimum requirement
integrated catchment
management offers a way
/ ILWRM
M.Falkenmark March 09
MASYARAKAT & AIR
Kebutuhan Individu
Kebutuhan Sosial
Kebutuhan Ekologis
Manusia dan Masyarakatnya snagat
tergantung pada air bersih
• blue water withdrawal may be used in two main ways
* some uses are throughflow-based use,
sending return flow back
- municipal use
- industry
* other uses are consumptive
depletive water use
- food, biofuels
- timber, carbon sequestration
M.Falkenmark March 09
Perbedaan Hidro-klimatik
Majority of poor and undernourished /ca 1 bln
ca 450 million rainfed
= water constrained agricultural production
M.Falkenmark March 09
Kendala hakiki: Variabilitas air
in water-constrained economies
hydrologic variability
complicates food production
water storage per person (m3) & the
poverty trap….
7 000
6 150
6 000
50
0
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
-50
-200
-100
-400
-150
-200
Cereal
yield
-600
-250
-800
Years
3 255
2 486
3 000
2 000
1 000
746
1 287 1 406
43
0
M.Falkenmark March 09
North
America
200
4 000
Brazil
100
400
China
December
rainfall
Laos
National rainfall index: Variation from trend (mm)
150
Thailand
600
Cereal production
South
Africa
National rainfall index
Total cereal production - Variation from trend ('000 tons)
200
4 729
5 000
Australia
800
Ethiopia
250
Air & Pembangunan Ekonomi
* overcoming hydrological variability = basic
-> Ketahanan Air minimum
-- Tiga Kategori Daerah atau Negara:
* those that have harnessed their hydrology
industrial countries
* those that are hampered by their hydrology
emerging economies
* those that remain hostages of their hydrology
low income countries
M.Falkenmark March 09
TANTANGAN SERIUS :
Ketahanan Pangan
Global
Kelangkaan pangan
Krisis pangan
Kebutuhan Air untuk Produksi Pangan
Produksi pangan membutuhkan air 70 kali lebih banyak
daripada kebutuhan domestik rumahtangga
3000 kcal/p d
20 % anim prot.
M.Falkenmark March 09
Preferensi Pangan dgn meningkatnya
INCOME
Water requirement
rich in meat
m3/cap day
global
average
vegetarian diet
M.Falkenmark March 09
Produksi Pangan
• water needed to
produce food
required = HUGE
Increase to reach the Hunger Goal 2015
2002 base line
km3/yr
2002
4 000
300
200
2 000
6000
Additional Green
5000
Additional Blue
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2015
M.Falkenmark March 09
2030
2050
2050
2050
2030
2030
year
2015
2015
year
2002
1990
2002
1990
1980
Green
revolution
1980
1970
1970
0
1960
0
1960
100
km3/yr
* can improve water
productivity
* can expand cropland
2050
6 000
 rest = to be
covered by green
water/soil moisture
2030
8 000
km3
irrigation cannot
contribute much
SSA small rivers
ephemeral
SAs river basins closing
10 000
Banyak air yang hilang untuk panen di Lahan
Kering
Green w ater availability
Crop water requi rement
100
90
8
Rai n i nput
7
% of Crop water requirement
80
6
70
60
5
Soi l water recharge
4
50
Blue water generation
40
Rain
deficiency
Blue w ater
losses
runoff
Blue w ater
losses
percolation
3
2
30
Infiltrated and
percolated
1 ton/ha
Farmer's
Field
20
0.5
0.2
Green w ater loss
10
g
ir
g
i
ge0
n Stored
re
e
in
0 zone
10 20
root
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 100
Productive green w ater use
% of ET
M.Falkenmark March 09
Out of crop water
required:
• only 90 % as rain
* only 60 %
infiltrates
* only 40 % stays in
root zone
* only 1/3 of that
taken
up by roots
* rest evaporates
Pilihan di tingkat Nasional
Income (2005)
Deficiency
A2 / UN med
Surplus
A2 / UN med
Low
1730 / 1400 km3/yr
310 / 410 km3/yr
Cropland expansion
Food export
4190 / 3790 Mp
470 / 480 Mp
1200 / 490 km3/yr
2240 / 2680 km3/yr
Food import
Food export
3110 / 2120 Mp
1960 / 1610 Mp
330 / 260 km3/yr
890 / 880 km3/yr
Food import
Food export
540 / 520 Mp
670 / 630 Mp
Medium
High
M.Falkenmark March 09
Mengurangi Defisit Air
• Limited population growth (UN rather than A2 scenario)
2000 km3/yr
• Perbaikan efisiensi air
2220 “
• Pembangunan Irigasi
430
• Food import from water surplus countries
750
• Cropland expansion into non-permanent pastures 130
• Unresolved ultimate water deficit
“
“
1270
“
M.Falkenmark March 09
DAERAH ALIRAN SUNGAI:
LINTAS BATAS DAERAH / KOTA/
KABUPATEN / PROPINSI /
NEGARA
Hubungan Hulu-Hilir - DAS Semiarid
Trans-national
upstream
runoff
generation
00=time zero
00 = forseeable
future time
70
53->15
M.Falkenmark March 09
Fleksibilitas: Hidup selalu berubah
Hulu
Euphr/Tigr
High
Limit upstr
consumpt. use
Attention to
cons. use upstr
Tujuan
Pembangunan
Limit downstr
requirem.
Nile
Niger
Low
Low
M.Falkenmark March 09
High
Hilir
Semiarid transnational basin
dilemma
__________________________
• growing populations
• food demands of new middle class increase
quickly with income
• food security essential to avoid unrest
• institution-building essential but takes time:
- development of shared vision + principles,
- permanent water commission
+ interacting heads of state,
- flexible transnational river basin agreement
M.Falkenmark March 09
KESEIMBANGAN
Sumberdaya Air Hijau – Air Biru
100%
60%
40%
India
Kenya
M.Falkenmark March 09
More consumptive use upstream
-> less blue water downstream
______________________________
RAIN
GREEN
Green water for Terrestrial
Ecosystem services
Blue water for Aquatic
Ecosystem services
BLUE
Environmental
Water Flows
Coastal water
M.Falkenmark March 09
Perlindungan Ekosistem
• WHY
- fundamental roles in life support
• WHAT
system
- specific landscape component
- ecosystem functioning/ resilience
”
• HOW
- determinant identification
- minimum requirement
integrated catchment management
offers a way
/ IWRM
M.Falkenmark March 09
DAS sebagai dasar pengaturan
ILWRM untuk mengelola kompatibilitas
land use – water use – ecosystem sustainability
M.Falkenmark March 09
Mengoptimalkan manfaat air hujan
lokal
• Sumberdaya = rainfall :
Air Hijau: Produksi tanaman pertanian tadah hujan
Air biru: Kebutuhan domestik, Industri, Irigasi
-> make best use of local rain
• Kesiapan untuk:
Pertumbuhan penduduk
Pembangunan ekonomi
Peningkatan Kesejahteraan
Peningkatan kebutuhan pangan
= mengubah keseimbangan antar daerah
Ketahanan Pangan
= memerlukan banyak sekali air
Memenuhi kekurangan air :
- irrigation - limited potential
- rainfed - plenty of green
net deficiency:
3260 km3/yr/ 7 bln
- by import some 40 %
- too poor to pay
60 %
-> horisontal expansion
- to where? not much grazing land
unresolved 1270 km3/yr
M.Falkenmark March 09
Keseimbangan vs. Kelestarian Lingkungan
Keseimbangan :
- Hulu – Hilir
-
Air hijau – Air Biru
- Manusia - Ekosistem
ILWRM
= alat bantu
Kelestarian menjadi ”Kendala” yang
menentukan determinan sumberdaya air