Transcript 2组.ppt

Analysis on Chinese Tobacco
Economy
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mid-term review
coping strategy
specific measures
feasibility analysis
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Tobacco consumption on the actual
impact of the national economy
Natural
monopoly
goods
Lack of
flexibility
negative
externality
Market
failure
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The impact of tobacco consumption
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Expand the income gap
Increase the economic losses
Medical costs
2. Human Capital
3. Total economy
1.
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Do harm to people's health and public
health
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Conclusion
The effect of
tobacco industry
on the national
economy is
negative, the
more prospers of
the tobacco
industry , the
more damage will
be done to the
national economy.
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Smoking
control
Demand
reduction
Tax
adjust
ment
configuration
tobacco
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coping strategy---configuration tobacco
The reform direction:
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Health
education
Smoking
control
measures
Direct
control
Tax
adjustment
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coping strategy---configuration tobacco
Health
education
Smoking
control
measures
Direct control
Tax
adjustment
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• Limit cigarette advertising and promotional activities
• Ban smoking in public places and work site
• Forbidden to sell cigarettes to minors
• Reform of tobacco monopoly system
• Levy tobacco surtax
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Discussion
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The cost of control—benifit analysis
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The tobacco tax analysis
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The cost of control—benifit analysis
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The cost of control
——reduce economic costs、increase opportunity cost
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The benefit of control
——Economic performance over the economic costs
significantly fire danger 、occupational hazard、 health insurance…
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Increase tobacco tax analysis
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Demand reduction of tobacco
Tobacco consumption reduction of social harm
Increase the quota of tax
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Demand reduction of tobacco
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一包烟提价10%预计平均可使香烟需求量在
高收入国家减少约4% ,而在中低收入国家
可减少约8% ,因为较低的收入往往使人们
对价格变化更加敏感[1]。
儿童和青少年比年长的成人对提价更加敏
感,因此这一干预措施将对他们产生重大影
响[2]。
[1]Buck,David, C. Godfrey,M. Raw, andM. Sutton. 1995. Tobacco and Jobs. York, U. K. :
Society for the Study of Ad diction and the Centre for Health Economics,University of York.
[2] Chaloupka, F. J. , and H. wechsler. 1997. “Price, Tobacco Control Policies and
SmokingAmong Young Adults. ”Journal of Health Economics 16 (3) : 359 - 73.
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Feasibility analysis
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The effect of ban smoking indoor
The effect of ban teenager smoking
Ban cigarette advertising and promotional
activities
The effect of the advertisement against
tobacco consumption
Increase the effect of tobacco tax
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1.1The effect of ban smoking indoor
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二手烟患者自主选择权回归
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室内吸烟率及吸烟量大幅降低
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1.2The effect of ban teenager smoking
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限制了青少年对香烟的可及性，增加了吸
烟的成本，控制了吸烟人数。
关于禁止青少年吸烟效果的研究表明: 只
有这些措施及相关的法律、法规被全面、
彻底地执行时, 才能取得显著的效果。
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1.3 Ban cigarette advertising VS
Advertisement against tobacco
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全面禁止烟草广告可以有效地降低烟草的
消费
反烟广告利用媒体提高大众对吸烟危害的
认知, 也可以明显地降低烟草消费。
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1.3 Ban cigarette advertising VS
Advertisement against tobacco
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Saffer 和Chaloupa 的研究表明增加15%
的反烟广告时间可以使烟草的消费量降低
约4%。一些区域性的反烟广告的效果分析
如美国的California、Massachusetts 以
及芬兰、希腊、英国、挪威、以色列、奥
地利、加拿大等国的研究均表明反烟广告
可以降低烟草消费[3]。
[3]Henry Saffer: Tobacco advertising and p romo tion. Tobacco Contro l in Develop ing Countries. Oxford Press.
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1.4Increase the effect of tobacco tax
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中国(包括台湾)、土耳其、巴布亚新几内亚、以
及南非的研究表明: 中低收入国家的香烟的需求
对价格的敏感性要高于发达国家, 需求弹性的值
大都集中于-0.5～-1.0之间[4～5]。
发达国家对香烟的需求弹性的研究比较多, 美国、
加拿大、澳大利亚、日本、英国以及许多西欧国
家的研究发现发达国家的香烟的需求弹性的值集
中于一个较窄的范围内, 并且大都集中于-0.25～
-0.5 之间[3]
[3]Henry Saffer: Tobacco advertising and p romo tion. Tobacco Contro l in Develop
ing Countries. Oxford Press.
[4]毛正中, 蒋家林1“卷烟需求及其影响因素:一个断面资料模型”[J]. 中国卫生事业管理, 1997;
5: 2272229.
[5]毛正中, 蒋家林等1“卷烟需求与价格政策”[J]. 中国卫生经济, 1997; 6: 50～ 52.
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a illusion ?
1.
2.
the substitutes of tobcco
the perspective of tobcco
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参考文献
[1] Buck,David, C. Godfrey,M. Raw, andM. Sutton. 1995. Tobacco and Jobs.
York, U. K. : Society for the Study of Ad diction and the Centre for Health
Economics,University of York.
[2] Chaloupka, F. J. , and H. wechsler. 1997. “Price, Tobacco Control
Policies and SmokingAmong Young Adults. ”Journal of Health
Economics 16 (3) : 359 - 73.
[3]Henry Saffer: Tobacco advertising and p romo tion. Tobacco Contro l in
Develop ing Countries. Oxford Press.
[4]毛正中, 蒋家林1“卷烟需求及其影响因素:一个断面资料模型”[J].
中国卫生事业管理, 1997; 5: 2272229.
[5]毛正中, 蒋家林等1“卷烟需求与价格政策”[J]. 中国卫生经济,
1997; 6: 50～ 52.
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组员分工安排
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陈鹏辉、曹 康：资料查找、演讲
金之怡、李静然：资料整理归纳
胡 丹、庄子燕：PPT制作 中翻英
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