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International Academy of Astronautics International Academy of Astronautics IAA Space Debris Committee Paris, March 22nd, 2016 International Academy of Astronautics Agenda 1. IAC 1.1. IAA Space Debris Committee 1.2. Lessons learned from Jerusalem 2015 1.3. Status of Space Debris Symposium for Guadalajara 2016 1.4. Preparation of Space Debris Symposium for Adelaide 2017 2. Exchanges 2.1. Past events: workshops, conferences, congresses, … 2.2. Ongoing 2.3. On the Agenda 2.4. New achievements 2.5. Round table – Open discussion 3. IAA SG 5.14 Situation Report Meeting restricted to Study Group members International Academy of Astronautics 1.1. IAA Space Debris Committee General frame: Officially created within IAA in 2012 - Independent Committee - Permanent Committee - Attachment to Commission V questionable Actions of the Committee: - Position Paper on Orbital Debris in 1993, revised in 2000 - Position Paper SG 5.1 on Space Debris Mitigation in 2006 - Position Paper SG 5.5 on Space Debris Remediation in 2013 - Participation to SG 5.10 on Orbital Debris Removal: Policy, Legal, Political and Economic considerations - Situation Report Paper SG 5.14 ongoing, to be discussed today International Academy of Astronautics 1.1. IAA Space Debris Committee Terms of Reference (recall): Scope Coordination of all activities related to Space Debris within the Academy •Organization of the IAA Symposium on Space Debris A6 for the IAC, proposals for Keynote Lectures within the A6 Symposium, or Highlight Lectures in the more general IAC frame, •Organization of any stand-alone conference on Space Debris on behalf the Academy, •Coordination of the Academy sponsoring, participation and contribution to selected conferences dedicated to Space Debris, such as for instance the ESA Conference on Space Debris in Darmstadt, •Coordination of the Space Debris contribution in conferences not dedicated to Space Debris, but where some sessions may be devoted to the topic, sponsored by the Academy, •Dissemination of information among the members of the Committee, mainly during regular meetings taking place twice a year, before the IAC and during the IAA March meetings in Paris. International Academy of Astronautics 1.1. IAA Space Debris Committee Membership: No need to be member of IAA ! - Members of the IAA A6 Symposium Program Committee (chairs & rapporteurs) - Members of the Program Committee of other IAA sponsored conferences with Space Debris concerns - Members of Space Debris related working groups (IADC, UNCOPUOS, COSPAR, ISO …) - Academics, Labs, Universities, Industrials… working on the topic However, it is requested to be somehow “active”: - Participation to the meetings - Debriefing of activities during the meetings - Cross information with other members - Contribution to studies and reports Two meetings per year: - One just before each year’s IAC Includes the status of the sessions, workshops, round tables… of the week - One just before or during the IAC March Meeting in Paris Includes the pre-selection of the abstracts for the following IAC International Academy of Astronautics 1.1. IAA Space Debris Committee Official membership: Co-Chair: Bonnal Christophe Co-Chair: Klinkrad Heiner Co-Chair: Liou Jer-Chyi Members: Agapov Vladimir Ailor William H Akahoshi Yasuhiro Alby Fernand Anselmo Luciano Anz-Meador Phillip Berend Nicolas Brachet Gerard Cazaux Christian Christiansen Eric L Crowther Richard DiPentino Frank Dolado-Perez Juan-Carlos Faucher Pascal Finkleman David Flury Walter Francesconi Alessandro Ganeshan A S Hanada Toshiya Kelso T. S Kibe Seishiro Kouprianov Vladimir Krag Holger Krisko Paula H Masson-Zwaan Tanja Matney Mark McKnight Darren S Meshcheryakov Sergei A Oltrogge Daniel L. Pardini Carmen Piergentili Fabrizio Schaefer Frank Schildknecht Thomas Stokes Hedley van Breukelen Eddy D Wiedemann Carsten Yakovlev Michael Yasaka Tetsuo New on-going (but agreed upon) Fitz-Coy Norman Flohrer Tim Lewis Hugh Mathieu Charlotte Metz Manuel Sorge Marlon Spencer David Fuentes Nathalie Not yet formal members Proposed Fuentes Nathalie To be removed 44 + 7 members Attendance list for today: see Appendix 1. Kouprianov Vladimir van Breukelen Eddy D International Academy of Astronautics 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015 STATISTICS IAC 2015 - Jerusalem Number of abstracts submitted 2669 Number of papers selected 2130 Number of papers presented 1149 Total number of attendees 2133 Number of countries represented 62 International Academy of Astronautics 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015 Sessions 2012 2013 2014 2015 Naples Beijing Toronto Jerusalem Number of abstracts submitted 3212 3657 3584 2669 Number of papers selected 2184 2320 2392 2130 Number of papers confirmed 1600 1640 1558 1448 Number of papers presented 1374 1304 1256 1149 Ratio Paper Not Presented/ papers selected 37% 43% 47% 46% - Nearly half of the selected papers are not presented! - Special attention to this phenomenon within IPC Steering Group International Academy of Astronautics 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015 #1 Attendance, Min, Max, Avg #2 Number of papers presented International Academy of Astronautics 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015 Symposium attendance (average) 450 400 350 Attendance 300 250 200 150 100 50 - A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 C1 C2 C3 C4 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 International Academy of Astronautics 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015 Abstract Rejection Rate 60% 50% Ratio 40% 30% 20% 10% International Academy of Astronautics 1.2. Feedback from Jerusalem 2015 Statistics: - Rather well equilibrated among sessions - HVI - Protection A6.3 a bit weaker as usual, due to hyper-specialization - A6.2: 11 papers presented may be a bit to high but no withdrawal… - A6.6: #3 highest “maximal attendance” and #1 highest “minimal attendace” of the congress - Average of 57 participants, maximal, per session (not inc A6.10): good, but less than Toronto (73). - Globally 3 papers out of 4 presented: good figure at IAC level, but could be improved International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Guadalajara 2016 Number of IAC abstracts since 2008 3584 4000 3180 3500 3000 2500 3675 271 2442 2428 2616 2483 2000 2095 1500 1000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2716 abstracts = Slightly less than the average of the past 8 years 2015 2016 International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Guadalajara 2016 Rate of arrival of abstracts (for fun…) 4000 3500 3000 2500 IAC-13 sum 2000 IAC-14 sum IAC-15 sum IAC-16 sum 1500 1000 500 International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Guadalajara 2016 Abstracts per symposium 250 200 150 100 50 0 5th best (but used to be better…) International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Guadalajara 2016 Number of abstracts, Space Debris Symposium, since 2008 250 200 150 100 50 0 Glasgow Daejeon Praha CapeTown Naples Beijing Toronto Jerusalem Guadalajara Status before the selection, IPC March 24th meeting: 155 abstracts International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Guadalajara 2016 Number of Oral sessions, Space Debris Symposium, since 2000 + Interactive Presentation session, - Back to 9 Oral + IP this year: maximal number without overlaping International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 A few inconsistencies between MoM of Jerusalem, IAF web site, and IAC Call for Papers A6: Space Debris Symposium Liou – Bonnal The Symposium will address the complete spectrum of technical issues of space debris: measurements, modelling, risk assessment in space and on the ground, reentry, hypervelocity impacts and protection, mitigation and standards, and Space Surveillance. A6.1: Measurements: Oltrogge - Schildknecht – Agapov This session will address advanced ground and space-based measurement techniques, relating processing methods, and results of space debris characterization. A6.2: Modelling and Risk Analysis: Pardini – Sorge – Bastida-Virgili This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for inorbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based on statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active avoidance. A6.3: Hypervelocity Impacts and Protection: Fitz-Coy – Schäfer – XXX The session will address passive protection, shielding and damage predictions. Shielding aspects will be supported by experimental and computational results of HVI tests. Use of HVI techniques for debris mitigation. A6.4: Mitigation and Standards: Krag – Cazaux – Yasaka This session will focus on the definition and implementation of debris prevention and reduction measures and International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 A6.5: Space Debris Removal Issues: Piergentili – Kibe – Santoni A6.6: Space Debris Removal Concepts: Berend – Innocenti –Haussmann This session will address active removal techniques “ground and space based”, review potential solutions an Identify implementation difficulties. This session will address active removal techniques “ground and space based”, review potential solutions an identify implementation difficulties. A6.7: Operations in Space Debris Environment, Situational Awareness: Kelso – Dolado-Perez – Wiedemann This session will address the multiple aspects associated to safe operations in Space dealing with Space Debris, including operational observations, orbit determination, catalogue build-up and maintenance, da aggregation from different sources, relevant data exchanges standards and conjunction analyses. A6.8 (joint with Space Security Committee): Political, Legal, Institutional and Economic Aspects of Space Debris Mitigation and Removal Plattard – Spencer – Soucek – Finkleman This session will deal with the non-technical aspect of space debris mitigation and removal. Political, legal an institutional aspects includes role of IADC and UNCOPUOS and other multilateral bodies. Economic issues including insurance, financial incentives and funding for space debris mitigation and removal. T role of international cooperation in addressing these issues will be considered A6.9: Orbit Determination and Propagation Jah – Klinkrad – XXX This session will address aspects of space debris orbit determination related to assessment of raw and deriv data accuracy, optical measurements processing and modelling and risk analysis of space debris International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 A6: Space Debris Symposium Number of Abstracts Total number of abstracts: 155 A6.1: Measurements: 19 A6.2: Modelling and Risk Analysis: 22 A6.3: Hypervelocity Impacts and Protection: 8 A6.4: Mitigation and Standards: 9 A6.5: Space Debris Removal Issues: 18 A6.6: Space Debris Removal Concepts: 30 A6.7: Operations in Space Debris Environment, Situational Awareness: 15 A6.8 (joint with Space Security Committee): Political, Legal, Institutional and Econom Aspects of Space Debris Mitigation and Removal: 16 A6.9: Orbit Determination and Propagation: 12 A6.P: Posters: 6 International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 Recall of a few basic rules Avoid the No-shows from Jerusalem: A6.6: Alaa Hussein, Xin Qu A6.8: Olga Stelmakh Be cautious with withdrawn; try to make sure they will come: A6.1: Wei Niu A6.3: Japneet Singh A6.4: Michèle Lavagna, Emma Kerr, Shraddha Gupta A6.5: Braven Leung, Mariella Graziano A6.6: Alessandro Chiesa, Nevo Taaseh A6.7: Noelia Sanchez Ortiz A6.8: Annamaria Nassisi, Susumu Yoshitomi International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 Recall of a few basic rules Selection process: - Check completeness of web site if you started preselection - Check equilibrium of your session - Not to many Americans, Europeans or Chinese - No duplication of subject, at least within one given session - Beware the “risky papers” or choose one more than recommended - Avoid “political” papers or very general roadmaps - Interactive Presentations: as many as you want, provided they are good - Dedicated zone - Competition for best Interactive Presentation Award - Be careful to follow the request of an author: O, IP, or open - Beware: 4 manuscripts are Interactive Presentation, although not in IP session To be transferred to IP session (2 from A6.1, 2 from A6.3) - Numerous students (54): keep a good equilibrium and select only if promising International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 Recall of a few basic rules: how to fill the table Thursday morning - Normally 9 papers per session, but 10 is recommended considering one or more “risky” papers - In case of “merger”, identify the “prime” International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 Plenaries: Selected list (out of 29 proposals): PE HoA PE HC PE 2 PE 4 Head of Agencies Host country Realizing Mars Sample Return through Human and Robotic Collaboration Projection and Stability of the Orbital Debris Environment in the Light of Planned Mega-Constellation Deployments PE 7 PE 13 Living For a Whole Year on ISS: Early Results and Lessons Learned. #YearInSpace Space and Climate : How space agencies will contribute to the implementation and follow-up of the Paris agreement during COP 21 ? PE 14 Innovative Solutions for Making Space Accessible and Affordable Highlight Lectures: Selected list not yet frozen – IPC SG meeting tomorrow - Could include: Pluto, Saturn, New Shepard Late Breaking News : - SpaceX Others will be decided later International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 Plenary Event PE 4: Projection and Stability of the Orbital Debris Environment i Light of Planned Mega-Constellation Deployments Prepared by Heiner and Jer-Chyi International Academy of Astronautics 1.3. Space Debris Symposium Guadalajara 201 Plenary Event PE 4: Projection and Stability of the Orbital Debris Environment i Light of Planned Mega-Constellation Deployments Prepared by Heiner and Jer-Chyi International Academy of Astronautics 1.4. Space Debris Symposium Adelaide 2017 International Academy of Astronautics 1.4. Space Debris Symposium Adelaide 2017 A6: Space Debris Symposium Liou – Bonnal The Symposium will address the complete spectrum of technical issues of space debris: measurements, modelling, risk assessment in space and on the ground, reentry, hypervelocity impacts and protection, mitigation and standards, and Space Surveillance. A6.1: Measurements: DiPentino - Schildknecht – Cowardin This session will address advanced ground and space-based measurement techniques, relating processing methods, and results of space debris characterization. A6.2: Modelling and Risk Analysis: Pardini – Oltrogge – Sorge This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for in orbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based o statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active avoidance. A6.3: Hypervelocity Impacts and Protection: Fitz-Coy – Schäfer – Francesconi The session will address passive protection, shielding and damage predictions. Shielding aspects will be supported by experimental and computational results of HVI tests. Use of HVI techniques for debris mitigation. A6.4: Mitigation and Standards: Finkleman – Cazaux – Krag This session will focus on the definition and implementation of debris prevention and reduction measures a vehicle passive protection. The session will also address space debris mitigation guidelines and standards that exist already or are in preparation at the national or international level. International Academy of Astronautics 1.4. Space Debris Symposium Adelaide 2017 A6.5: Space Debris Removal Issues: Piergentili – Santoni – Bastida-Virgili A6.6: Space Debris Removal Concepts: Berend – Innocenti – Haussmann This session will address active removal techniques “ground and space based”, review potential solutions an Identify implementation difficulties. This session will address active removal techniques “ground and space based”, review potential solutions an identify implementation difficulties. A6.7: Operations in Space Debris Environment, Situational Awareness: Kelso – Dolado-Perez – Wiedemann This session will address the multiple aspects associated to safe operations in Space dealing with Space Debris, including operational observations, orbit determination, catalogue build-up and maintenance, da aggregation from different sources, relevant data exchanges standards and conjunction analyses. A6.8 (joint with Space Security Committee): Political, Legal, Institutional and Economic Aspects of Space Debris Mitigation and Removal Plattard – McKnight – Soucek This session will deal with the non-technical aspect of space debris mitigation and removal. Political, legal an institutional aspects includes role of IADC and UNCOPUOS and other multilateral bodies. Economic issues including insurance, financial incentives and funding for space debris mitigation and removal. T role of international cooperation in addressing these issues will be considered A6.9: Orbit Determination and Propagation Jah – Klinkrad – Lewis This session will address aspects of space debris orbit determination related to assessment of raw and deriv data accuracy, optical measurements processing and modelling and risk analysis of space debris International Academy of Astronautics 1.4. Space Debris Symposium Adelaide 2017 • Any ideas for Adelaide 2017? - Joint Session? - Could be interesting with B1 Earth Observation and/or B2 Space Communication and Navigation - Could be interesting with B4 Small Satellites, reviewing practices, identifying future trends => - Could be discussed with D2 Space Transportation to have a good status of the situation, if operators explain what they do… - Could be worth a session with E7 = IISL • If we decide for such a joint session, Darren volunteers to start discussions and prepare the ground • Other ideas? - Keynote lecture at the beginning of one of our sessions in line with Host country (Australia a Space Debris…) International Academy of Astronautics 2.1. Past events • 6th Workshop on End of Life - CNES-HQ, Paris, 28 January 2016 See presentation • Reinvent Space Conference - 9-13 November 2015, Oxford, UK Small satellites, debris Discussions on licensing by UK Mining, NEO, … International Academy of Astronautics 2.2. Ongoing • IAA studies Two following pages, for information • SG 5.10 Orbital Debris Removal: Policy, Legal, Political and Economic considerations Dedicated meeting on Monday 21 March 2016 See following pages International Academy of Astronautics 2.2. Ongoing International Academy of Astronautics 2.2. Ongoing International Academy of Astronautics • 2.2. Ongoing SG 5.10 Orbital Debris Removal: Policy, Legal, Political and Economic considerations International Academy of Astronautics • 2.2. Ongoing SG 5.10 Orbital Debris Removal: Policy, Legal, Political and Economic considerations (ctd) International Academy of Astronautics 2.3. On the agenda • 4th Workshop on Space Debris Modeling and Remediation - CNES-HQ, Paris, 6 – 8 June 2016 - Modeling, including uncertainties and specificities coming from small satellites and constellations; - High level actions, road-maps, associated to debris remediation; - Remediation system studies, including those relative to small debris; - Design of specific concepts; - Associated technologies; - GNC aspects, rendezvous sensors and algorithms, de-spin, control during de-boo - Lasers; - Economics, insurance, intellectual property; - Policy, national security, international cooperation… aspects on aspects of debris remediation. - Program Committee: ESA-HQ (Luisa Innocenti), ESA-ESOC (Holger Krag), DLR (Manuel Metz), JAXA (Satomi Kawamoto), NASA-JSC (Jer-Chyi Liou), SWF (Brian Weeden), Roscosmos, (Valeriy Trushlyakov), UK Space Agency (Richard Crowther) , CNSA (Li Ming), and CNR-ISTI (Luciano Anselmo), in addition to 4 CNES, CNES-HQ (Pascal Faucher), CNES-Toulou International Academy of Astronautics • 8th IAASS - • 23rd April 2016 Cal Poly U in SLO Some debris presentations Small sats conference - • Melbourne, Florida - USA, 18 – 20 May 2016 See following pages Small sats workshop - • 2.3. On the agenda Logan, Utah http://www.smallsat.org/ Space Risk Forum - Dubai - Coordinated by Insuranceorldspaceriskforum.com Www.worldspaceriskforum.com International Academy of Astronautics 2.3. On the agenda International Academy of Astronautics 2.3. On the agenda International Academy of Astronautics 2.4. New achievements International Academy of Astronautics ISO TC20/SC14 ORBITAL DEBRIS MITIGATION STANDARDS WG1 DESIGN WG2 INTG & TEST Tests of smallscale satellites (19683) Notes As of February 2015 1) Abbreviated titles used 2) Text colour code: Green: IS published Brown: FDIS stage Red: DIS stage Blue: CD stage Black: WD stage 4) Items of ECCS high priority underlined 5) Controversial items not shown. 6) To be added: TR – SDM Design and Opes Manual for LV WG3 OPERATIONS WG4 ENVIRON. Disposal at GEO (26872) Disposal in LEO (16164) Estimating mass remaining usable propellant (23339) WG5 MANAGEMEN T Process-Based implementation of M/D Env. Models (14200) transfer to WG7 Earth atmosphere density (14222) Re-entry Risk Magment for unmanned S/C (27875) Estimation of orbit lifetime (27852) Orbit determination and estimation (11233) Avoiding collisions with orbiting objects (16158 TR) WG6 MATERIALS WG7 (ODWG) Space Debris Mitigation (24113) SDM Design and Operation Manual for S/C (18146) Test procedures for S/C material ejecta upon HVI (11227) Survivability of unmanned S/C against SD and MM impacts (16126) Disposal of Orbital Launch Stages (16699) Prevention of Break-up of of un-manned S/C (16127) International Academy of Astronautics 2.4. New achievements International Academy of Astronautics • Space Orbital object behavioral Sciences - • 2.5. Round table – Open discussion See Appendix Why Should We Estimate the Future Costs of Orbital Debris? - Discussion proposed by Joe Carroll: see Appendix - Business model for ADR – Preliminary ideas: See Appendix • Proposed Series of Orbital Debris Remediation Activities • Risks of atmospheric re-entries on aircraft - See Appendix International Academy of Astronautics 3. IAA SG 5.14 Situation Report Goal Reference status of the Space Debris problematic, acting as an update of the IAA Position Papers 1993 and Revision fr 2001, taking into account the IAA Position Papers on Space Debris Mitigation (SG5.1) and on Space Debris Remediati (SG5.5). Available elements from on-going SG5.10 devoted to Policy, Legal and Economic Issues in Orbital Debris Removal will also be included. Today: 132 pages, Completed at 99% Progress in past six months: • Good progress these last days!... • Finalization of the paper ongoing International Academy of Astronautics Structure 3. IAA SG 5.14 Situation Report Status before the meeting Co-Editors: Darren McKnight & Christophe Bonnal Executive summary Darren McKnight 3 pages Table of contents 2 pages 1. Introduction, recall of scope and past studies: Darren McKnight 3 pages 2. Present status: Heiner Klinkrad 12 pages 3. Measurements: Thomas Schildknecht & Vladimir Agapov 6 pages 4. Space surveillance: Cazaux, Finkleman, Alby, Oltrogge 15 pages 5. Collision risks: Cazaux, Finkleman, Alby, Oltrogge 4 pages 6. Reentering space objects: Holger Krag & Marlon Sorge 13 pages 7. Future environment: Paula Krisko & Juan-Carlos Dolado-Perez 16 pages 8. Debris mitigation: Manuel Metz & J-C. Liou 11 pages 9. Remediation: Darren McKnight & Seishiro Kibe 10 pages 10. Protection: Frank Schäfer 12 pages 11. Legal: Tanja Masson-Zwaan 9 pages 12. International aspects: Charlotte Mathieu & MYS Prasad 6 pages 13. References & Standards: Christophe Bonnal 7 pages Appendixes 3 pages International Academy of Astronautics • 3. IAA SG 5.14 Situation Report General remarks: • Thank you to all contributors, including last-minute… :o) • Current text includes reviews from Akira, Carmen, Hedley, Luciano • Choice is made to write 1,000 km, rather than 1 000 or 1,000km (Acta Astronautica style) • Choice is made to duplicate references throughout the chapters • All numerical data will have to be harmonized prior to publication (not done yet) • More generally, harmonization (figures, tables, references) will be done during polishing • We should add much more references; don’t hesitate to put your own! • For future revisions, we need inputs from other contributors (China, India, S-Korea, …) • Status report to IAA distributed, as requested, on Feb. 23rd; additional discussions in Commission • PDF version freely accessible on IAA web-site • Revision of the pdf version whenever considered adequate “permanently” updated “living” document, acting as Reference • • Initial hard-copy publication agreed by CNES Once the text is complete, Darren and Christophe will do polishing, then send to IAA for Peer