Transcript Knight-ClimateAdapt.ppt

National Tribal Forum on Air Quality
June, 2011
Climate Change:
Adaptation to Implementation
Ed Knight, AICP, Senior Planner
Swinomish Indian Tribal Community
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Understanding the challenges
of climate change
IEA 2011: GHG emissions higher than ever, still increasing
Changes will happen regardless of
action; how best to adapt
Changes not the same everywhere, vary
locally and regionally
Changes will continue long term;
thinking across generations
Uncertainty in data and projections,
change may occur faster than projected
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Some terms and references:
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (United Nations)
Mitigation: Actions to try to reduce
the causes of climate change
Adaptation: Actions to respond to the
unavoidable effects of climate change,
either actual or projected
Adaptive capacity: ability to respond
to or accommodate changes
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
What Is Adaptation Planning?
A process for evaluating and
responding to the potential
risks to the community from
a range of projected impacts.
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Fundamentals of adaptation planning:
underlying questions
What are the important elements of the
community? (what needs to be protected)
What are existing conditions (not all changes
are climate change), and what changes can be
observed? (what is happening now)
What community values are important to
response? (adaptation goals)
What is the level of awareness in the
community of changes occurring? (outreach
and communication)
What challenges/constraints exist in the
community for response? (implementation)
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Getting Started on Adaptation
Preliminary scoping of issues, disciplines
Assess organizational capacity, needs
Organizational education and buy-in
Define approach, methodology
Identify funding, partners
Community outreach
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Location of Swinomish Indian Reservation
Fidalgo
Island
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Swinomish Indian Reservation
SWINOMISH
INDIAN
RESERVATION
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Potential sea level rise, WA state
(CIG 2006)
Local Response to Climate Change: Swinomish Case Study
Sea level rise scenarios, low-lying areas
New High Tide
(accelerated)
MHHW
New High Tide
(conservative)
Sea Level Rise
(accelerated)
MLLW
Sea Level Rise
(conservative)
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Tidal surge, Swinomish Reservation
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Tidal surge, Swinomish Reservation
Chilberg Ave.
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Swinomish Climate Change Initiative
Two-year, $400,000 project
80% federal funding (ANA), 20% Tribal
Univ. of WA Climate Impacts Group (CIG),
science advisors
Advisory Partners: Town of LaConner,
Skagit County, Shelter Bay Community
Year 1: Impact assessment, outreach,
strategy scoping
Year 2: Develop recommendations,
action plan
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Preliminary impact assessment matrix
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Community Engagement
Tribal
Leaders
Tribal
Elders
Tribal
Youth
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Impact Assessment
(Guidance: CIG/King County guidebook)
Impact Analysis: at-risk areas (zones),
range/probability of impacts
Vulnerability Assessment: inventory
risk zones, sensitivity/adaptive capacity
Risk Analysis: value of at-risk assets;
vulnerability X probability = risk
Technical Report (2009)
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Impact Assessment Report
Review of climate data
Broad impact analysis
Many disciplines/sectors
Risk zone mapping
Inventory of at-risk assets
Vulnerability assessment
Risk analysis
Basis for Action Plan
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Inundation Risk Zones –
Sea Level Rise, Tidal Surge
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Property Type
Residential
Non-Residential
Buildable Lots
TOTAL
Structures
Number
1,368
Acres
1,995 $ 493,688,000
9
143
183
80
1,560
Approximate
Value
$
4,806,000
$ 19,918,000
2,218 $ 518,412,000
Vulnerability
Assessment of
Wildfire Risk Zone,
Swinomish Indian
Reservation
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Impacts on tribal traditions
Beach seining
Native plants
Shellfish harvesting
Fishing
Cultural sites
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Strategy and Response Planning
Goals for adaptation planning
Strategy evaluation & priorities
Community input
Action recommendations
Coordination, funding needs
Implementation issues
Action Plan Recommendations
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Adaptation Strategy Toolbox
Incentives/non-regulatory
Regulatory options and controls
Practical/engineering solutions
Risk prevention planning
Emergency preparedness
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Strategy evaluation criteria
Comprehensiveness:
Addresses range of impacts and risk
Sustainability:
Long-term solution, not band-aid fix
Dynamic approach:
Responds to changing facts, circumstances
Fiscal impact/feasibility:
Considers financial commitments, term
Community goals:
Aligns with desires/needs of the community
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Community Engagement
Events:
School Science Fair
Annual Tribal Clam Bake
Earth Day Activities
Communications:
Tribal Newsletter
Community Meetings
Individual Interviews
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Toward Implementation:
Mainstreaming Adaptation
Institutionalize across disciplines, sectors
Look for “no regrets” opportunities
Political barriers and constraints
Relevancy to real world issues
Partnerships: shared interests/burdens
Funding: options and sources
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Institutionalizing adaptation
Land use planning
Natural resource planning
Transportation planning
Infrastructure planning
Financial planning
Emergency planning
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Implementing Action Plan Priorities
Coastal zone measures
($$$)
Dike management authority
($$$$$)
Regional access preservation
($$$$$$$)
Wildfire control (Firewise)
($)
Local emergency planning
($)
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Maintaining momentum
Evaluating response: how to define
and measure success
Ongoing monitoring: tracking science,
data, conditions, and progress
Reality check: adaptation goals
Pacing response: incremental steps to
deal with inertia, costs
Dealing with the unexpected: adaptive
flexibility in planning
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
The Ultimate Beneficiaries:
Working for future generations
Results of our efforts may
not be seen in our lifetime,
but it’s up to us to start.
Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation
Credits & References
Swinomish Climate Change Initiative supported by a grant from the U.S. Department of Health &
Human Services, Administration for Native Americans.
Washington Department of Ecology (2006) Impacts of Climate Change on Washington’s
Economy: A Preliminary Assessment of Risks and Opportunities, Publication No. 07-01-010,
November, 2006.
Snover AK, Whitely Binder LC, Lopez J, Willmott E, Kay J, Howell D, Simmonds J (2007) Preparing
for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In
association with and published by ICLEI, Oakland, CA.
IPCC Working Group I (2007). Climate change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary
for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New
York.
Photos: Channel Town Press (Doug Cole), Feb. 2006; Swinomish Indian Tribal Community.
Presentation preparation/contact: Ed Knight, AICP, Senior Planner, Swinomish Indian Tribal
Community, LaConner, WA, 360-466-7304, [email protected]. More information and
complete copies of reports available on the Swinomish Climate Change web site,
www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_change/project/reports.html