California Energy Commission

Global Climate Change: Trends and Policy Issues

March 3, 2005 Susan J. Brown California Energy Commission

California Energy Commission

Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends

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CA produces 7.5 percent of U. S. carbon dioxide emissions and 1.8 of the world’s human-caused GHG emissions.

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CA has low carbon intensity per capita, relative to other states.

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CA’s GHG emissions are large and growing, due to population and economic growth.

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Based on latest CEC data, GHG emissions grew 13 percent from 1990 to 2001 and will grow 32 percent from 1990 to 2020.

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Imported power has had a greater carbon intensity than in-state electricity since 1990.

California Energy Commission

California’s 2001 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Nitrous Oxide 7% Industrial Gases 4% Methane 7% Carbon Dioxide 82%

California Energy Commission

California’s 2001 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Imported electricity is included.) Commercial, Residential & Others 8% Electric Power 21% Transportation 42% Industrial 22% Agriculture & Forestry 7%

California Energy Commission

California GHG Emissions Growth

(Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent) 600 500 400 Imported Electricity In-State Electricity 300 Industrial Ag & Forestry Commercial, Residential, etc 200 Other Transportation Jet Fuel 100 Gasoline 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

California Energy Commission

Growth in GHG Emissions: Historical and Projected (Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent)

700 600 Projected 500 400 300 200 Historical 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

California Energy Commission

Current Energy Commission Activities

 State energy and climate change policy development through the 2005 Integrated Energy Policy Report  State coordinator for the West Coast Governors’ Global Warming Initiative  Climate Change Advisory Committee (Chapter 1018, Statutes of 2000)  State greenhouse gas emissions inventory  Climate change science: $4 million annual research budget

California Energy Commission

State Policies with Climate Co-Benefits

 Promote energy efficiency through standards and other programs  Accelerate the Renewable Portfolio Standard to 2010  Expand markets for low-carbon fuels  Support R&D for high-efficiency gas generation and carbon sequestration.

 Improve waste recycling, forest and livestock management  Incorporate climate change risk in utility resource procurement and state PERS investment portfolios

California Energy Commission

West Coast Governors’ Global Warming Initiative

 California, Oregon and Washington Governors called for regional actions in September 2003.

 Staff recommendations in November 2004.

    Three states have agreed to work together to:

Adopt common motor vehicle standards Explore a market-based carbon allowance Establish regional climate change goals

California Energy

CEC Climate Change Advisory Committee: Key Policy Questions:

 What strategies should California pursue beyond existing policies and programs?

 What criteria should be used to select these strategies?

 What business opportunities exist for California corporate leaders?

 What options warrant further evaluation?

California Energy Commission

CEC Advisory Committee Feedback

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Strategies to reduce greenhouses should be practical and cost-effective.

Largest emitting sectors are transportation, industrial (e.g. petroleum refining, semi conductor, cement) and power generation. Any “cap-and-trade” system should be comprehensive and economy-wide.

State level GHG accounting should promote consistency at the national and international levels.

Policy input is requested for the 2005 Integrated Energy Policy Report.

California Energy Commission

CEC Climate Research Program: Key Research Questions

     What are plausible climate change scenarios for California?

How would climate change (the physical impacts) affect CA’s environment and economy?

What are the merits of different mitigation and adaptation strategies?

How would climate change affect energy supply and demand?

How would climate change policies affect the state’s economy?

California Energy Commission

Recent Scientific Findings

  Scientists agree that climate change is real and human-induced.

Climate change will affect the state’s natural resources and the economy  Climate modeling suggests probable scenarios of precipitation, snow pack and temperature changes.

 Not yet consensus on the timing and magnitude and degree of climate change impacts.

California Energy Commission

Climate Change Web Page

The Energy Commission’s web page links to other federal, state and international web sites on global climate change.

For further information, please see www.climatechange.ca.gov