30/04/2020

Sustainable mobility: interests, indicators, and instruments

by Lasse Fridstrøm Managing Director Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) [email protected]

www.toi.no

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Institute of Transport Economics

Mission:

To develop and disseminate transportation knowledge with scientific quality and practical application.

      Independent, private foundation 15-20 per cent basic funding Contract research Some 70 researchers Some 20 per cent international contracts

Interdisciplinary © Institute of Transport Economics 30/04/2020 Page 4

Institute of Transport Economics

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a TØI researcher

Ph.D. Candidate in Logistics

, Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Master in Actuarial Science

(MAcS), Faculty of Economics and Applied Economics, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (K.U.Leuven), Belgium

Master in International Business Economics

(M.I.B.E.), Faculty of Economics and Applied Economics, K. U. Leuven, Belgium

Bachelor Degree in Economics

, Department of Finance, Nankai University, P. R. China

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Sustainable mobility – what is it?

A sustainable transport system  [is] defined as one that allows the basic access and development needs of individuals, companies and societies to be met safely and in a manner consistent with human and ecosystem health , and promotes equity within and between successive generations;  is affordable, operates fairly and efficiently, offers choice of transport mode, and supports a competitive economy, as well as balanced regional development;  limits emissions and waste within the planet's ability to absorb them , uses renewable resources at or below their rates of generation, and, uses non-renewable resources at or below the rates of development of renewable substitutes while minimising the impact on the use of land and the generation of noise.

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The interest in sustainable mobility

4.

5.

  6.

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Reducing the external costs of transport

: 1.

2.

3.

Road wear Accidents : investment and maintenance costs : loss of life and health, medical costs, loss of labour, material damage Congestion : increased time costs, increased fuel consumption Barrier effects Noise and vibrations Emissions CO CO 2 NO X VOC Particulates SO 2 : reduced accessibility : loss of health and welfare : loss of health and life years, climate change

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The global tragedy of the commons

A “tragedy of the commons” occurs when an apparently abundant common good is being consumed over and above its capacity to provide or regenerate, because no one has the incentive to hold back.

Our planet is now facing the largest ever tragedy of the commons: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are destroying our atmosphere.

The contribution of any single individual is microscopic. But the macroscopic (societal) effect will be catastrophic. Transportation is one of the culprits. Transportation is the only sector relying almost exclusively on fossil energy. How can GHG emissions from transportation be substantially reduced?

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The local tragedy of the commons

Beijing has now more than 3 million cars and is becoming choked with smog and congestion.

The city is using up its air and the capacity of its road system.

The contribution of any single individual is microscopic. The sum of all contributions will harm people’s health, deter economic growth and reduce the quality of living.

The problem must be addressed at its source , i. e. by measures which lead to 1.

Less transportation 2.

3.

More energy efficient modes of transportation, and/or Less emissions per vehicle kilometer

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At the microscopic (individual) level: We love the car - for a (set of) reason(s).

        We must understand those reasons. It is  fast, safe, comfortable, door-to-door, practical, flexible, classy, suitably private or sociable, and cheap (?).

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At the macroscopic (societal) level: The car is the enemy

It is neither energy efficient nor friendly to the environment. It is about to ruin our atmosphere and many local communities.

It clogs our cities and many intercity roads. It demands large infrastructure investments and maintenance costs. It holds overwhelming market shares in the developed world.

It is about to acquire a similar position in low and middle income countries.

Can the latter countries learn from the mistakes of the former?

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Policy instruments for urban sustainability

      Promoting energy efficient and low-emission modes of transport: bicycles and motorised public transport .

Land use regulation: Avoid urban sprawl . Dense cities lend themselves to public transport and bicycling and are therefore environment friendly. Congestion charging Parking fees and regulation Vehicle taxes Fuel taxes

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The virtuous circle in public transit (Mohring)

Increased demand Increased frequency

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Reduced generalized cost

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The vicious circle in public transit

Deficit/ reduced subsidies Reduced demand

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Reduced supply

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What Oslo PT travellers want

Per cent satisfied 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0,00 Walking time at home Walking time at job Seating Door-to-door travel time Comfort Direct routing (no transfer) Transfer waiting time Weather protection On-line information Fare 0,05 0,10 0,15 Punctuality Importance Frequency 0,20 Source: Oslo Public Transport Company

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A common misunderstanding

“Rail is good, road is bad.” Electric trains, tramways and subways have zero emissions. So to help avoid the tragedy of the commons, we should all go by rail.

The reality

A mode that captures market shares from the car is an environmental mode .

It does not matter if the public transit mode is a railway or busway, as long as it meets the travellers’ demands. Beijing is experimenting with bus rapid transit (BRT) . Good!

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The principle of marginal cost (congestion) pricing

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    

Congestion charging

An Asian city, Singapore, has the longest experience in congestion charging world-wide. In Stockholm, congestion charges have reduced the traffic flow by 22 per cent across the cordon toll ring. Travel times are dramatically reduced, and so are exhaust emissions. Manual toll collection can be replaced by modern electronic devices, thus avoiding queue-ups at toll plazas. Economic science suggests that congestion charging is the right solution. Hence, the European Commission has been advocating it for decades.

However, European politicians generally do not have the guts to go forward with it. Maybe Chinese politicians are more courageous?

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The toolbox of transportation science

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2.

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5.

6.

     Travel surveys : random sampling of travellers GIS : geographic information systems, providing exact origin and destination data based on addresses Revealed preference analysis: discrete choice modelling based on actual behaviour and the random utility maximising paradigm Stated preference analysis: hypothetical consumer choices Network models flows (EMME/2 and others), calculating equilibrium traffic Integrated demand and network modelling , predicting trip frequency destination choice mode choice route choice, and/or departure time depending on network characteristics (travel times, fares, etc). Models can be used for impact assessment of varying policy packages.

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The logit model of discrete choice

p

ik



e

j J

  1

b jk x ij



m



M i

e

j J

  1

b jm x ij

 

m



M

e

V ik i

e

V im

( i

 1

,

2

,..., n )

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The indirect utility:

V ik



j J

  1

b jk x ij

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An EMME/2 network representation of traffic flows in southern Norway

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Conclusions (1)

1.

2.

3.

Beijing needs an extensive, attractive and efficient public transport system . It may also need stiff taxes on vehicles, fuel, and peak-time road use. Busways can be an excellent alternative to subways and rail: cheaper, more flexible, and much faster to implement.

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Conclusions (2)

5.

6.

7.

8.

Transport demand analysis and network modelling made great advances in the last three decades.

have Thus, transportation science can be used to show how policy packages of congestion charging, public transport subsidies and targeted urban development can be optimised, so as to reduce the pressures on the city’s resources and infrastructure and on the local environment. Hence, urban transport planning in Beijing and other cities can and should be scientifically based .

A scientifically based, integrated land use and urban transport policy will also help meet the global environmental challenge.

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If so, the Institute of Transport Economics is willing to contribute.

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Thank you for listening!

For more applied research in transportation, visit www.toi.no

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Outline

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2.

3.

4.

5.

About the Institute of Transport Economics Sustainable mobility: what is it, and what is at stake ?

Instruments to promote sustainable mobility The scientific toolbox and its contribution Conclusion: a research agenda

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