Transcript Anticipated Climate Change Effects in the Pacific Northwest

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Beverly Law and students, Oregon State
University
Ron Neilson and MAPSS team, Pacific
Northwest Research Station
Climate Impacts Group, University of
Washington
Chris Ringo, ecology tech team
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Northwest expected to warm 2 degrees C by
the 2040s and 3.3 degrees C by the 2080s
Area burned by fire expected to double by
2040s and triple by 2080s
--Climate Impacts Group
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Variability in el Nino-la Nina events and
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) will
increase, causing more intense winter
storms
Short-term outlook is warmer and wetter
As warming further increases, expect
increased summer drought
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More winter precipitation as rain
Earlier spring melt means lower summer
flows
2 degrees C increase in next 20 years means
25 percent less snowpack
…….a coming water crisis in the West
(Barnett et al. 2008)
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Initially growth may increase since carbon
dioxide has a fertilizer effect
But with prolonged warming some areas
will become more water limited, growth will
decrease, and fire risk will increase
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Tree regeneration may become more
difficult on lower elevation sites and better
at higher elevations
Whitebark pine will be at high risk of loss
due to multiple stressors
Species shifts are likely to be gradual
Recall vulnerability assessment
Climate-Informed
Vegetation
Vulnerability
Climate-Informed
Wildlife
Population
Vulnerability
Climate-Induced
Vegetation Shifts
Species Ability to
Adapt
Neilson, USGS
Models, Veg
Synthesis
Data source
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Proceed carefully
Neilson and MAPPS group projections
Look at range of possible outcomes rather
than specific future
MAPSS Simulated Vegetation Distribution
Current Climate
CGCM1
Coarse-Level Physiognomic Classification
Possible Future Woody Expansion, and
Carbon Sequestration
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More carbon dioxide, warmer and wetter
winters mean more growth and carbon
accumulation
If this is followed by pronounced summer
droughts, higher risk of fire
This is true Region-wide, but the change will
be most pronounced in the west Cascades
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Build planning efforts for an uncertain
future, not any specific one
We are looking at various possible scenarios
and using them to bracket the range of
possibilities
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The best climate change
strategy is a rigorous ,
viable restoration policy to
make landscapes resilient
to a variety of possible
futures.
We have to take climate change seriously, not
because we know what the future will be,
but because we don’t.
--The Economist