Transcript Sanchez Climate Challenges-PADEP Mar 2010.ppt

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Actions Needed To Protect
The Water Resources
of the
Delaware River Basin
Jessica
CarolR.R.Sanchez,
Collier, PP,
MCRP,
AICPPhD
River
Executive
BasinDirector
Planner
Delaware River Basin Commission
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Extreme water resource
management
Delaware River
Watershed Facts
Basin + Bay =13,539 mi²
 12,757 mi² Drainage
(~ 0.4 of 1% of the continental US)
 330 miles: Longest undammed
river east of the Mississippi
 ~ 50% basin land is in PA
 Over 15 million people rely on
the waters of the basin
(~ 5% of the US population)

In last 6 years,
cumulative
departure from
“normal” >40inches
or +6 inches
per year since 2004
on average
Drought of the 1960’s
DROUGHT: Extreme Water Supply Planning
Cannonsville Reservoir
December 2001
Serial Flooding: Extreme Flood Mitigation
3 record-breaking floods in 22 months:
•Sept 2004
•April 2005
•June 2006
Variability within Extremes
DRY
WET
…and Changing Averages
Rutgers – Office of NJ State Climatologist
Flow Target @Trenton= 3000 cfs
Philadelphia
Intake
1964
2002
Salt Line
Range
Prepared by Philadelphia Water Dept
Critical Water
Supply Areas
2 critical ground water
areas
Special withdrawal limits/
review thresholds
Emphasis on conjunctive
use - surface water
alternative is crucial
Operating Plans
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Montague
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Trenton

NYC Delaware Basin
Reservoirs drive the Basinwide Operating Plan
DRBC storage in 2 Army
Corps reservoirs drive Lower
Basin Operating Plan

Beltzville

Blue Marsh
Merrell Creek Reservoir
DRBC Drought
Emergency Actions
can mobilize
additional 69 BG for
flow augmentation
Extreme issues
 Is
there sufficient storage to meet increases
in demand…under a prolonged drought?
 Is 3000 cfs target sufficient to support
oysters, repel salt front and keep intakes
safe?
 Is 69 BG of emergency storage enough to
meet flow needs…in the next drought
emergency?
 What more does climate change add to the
stressors in our management scenarios?
Assumptions for Future
Scenarios
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Increasing Temperatures: > 2- 4o C
Equal or Increased Precipitation: > 7 – 9%
Greater Intensity of Storms
More Precip. in Winter Months
Warmer Summers (Higher Demand & ET)
Working at the Extremes

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Floods and Droughts
Increase in Sea Level Rise
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
Inundation (height + tidal range change)
Storm Surge
Salinity Increases
Changes in Snowpack and Snowmelt
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Less snow in the winter - affects water supply for many
who depend on the melting of snowpack as a water
source.
Timing of snowmelt - earlier snowmelt may require
changes to how water supply reservoirs are managed.
Sea Level Rise
Global Sea Level Rise
Regional Changes
gravity, ocean currents and ocean density
subsidence
Global + Regional
0.45 + 0.27 = 0.72m
(2.3 ft)
1.4 + 0.27 = 1.67m
(5.5. ft)
Model
0.5 meter rise
1.0 meter rise
1.5 meter rise
SLR: Northeast US Regional Changes
Northeast US Sea level trends, 1950-1999
(mm/yr)
0.00
Eastport, ME
Bar Harbor, ME
Portland, ME
Boston, MA
Woods Hole, MA
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
In the Northeast US
sea level is rising
much faster than the
global average, most
likely due to local land
subsidence.
Newport, RI
Providence, RI
New London, CT
Montauk, NY
Willets Point, NY
The Battery, NY
Sandy Hook, NJ
Atlantic City, NJ
Inferred subsidence
rates are -0.6 to 2.7
mm yr-1.
Philadelphia, PA
Lewes, DE
Baltimore, MD
Annapolis, MD
Solomons Island, MD
Washington, DC
Gloucester Point, VA
Sewells Point, VA
Global average
Source – Ray Najjar
Over the 21st Century,
this is an additional
sea-level rise of -6 to
27 cm.
Sources: Zervas (2001),
Church et al. (2004)
Potential Impacts to Water
Supply and Infrastructure
Droughts – Storage?
 More ET - Increased Irrigation?
 Stormwater system re-vamps?
 Sea Level Rise - Salinity Pushing Inland
 Infrastructure placement - Water Lines,
Sewer Lines, Wastewater Treatment
 Loss Of Snow Pack
 Prolonged
Water Intakes at Risk from Drought and Sea Level Rise:
location of the salt line at high tide during drought
Power
• Exelon Delaware
Generating Station
• Exelon Richmond
Generating Station
• Philadelphia Gas
Works Richmond
Industrial
• Koch Material Co.
• NGC Industries
• Rohm and Haas
Philadelphia
• MacAndrew and
Forbes Co.
• Pennwalt
Corporation
• Sunoco
Public Supply
• Torresdale Water
Intake (provides
• almost 60% of
Philadelphia’s
water supply)
• New Jersey
American Water
Co. Tri-County
Water Treatment
Plant
Special Protection
Waters
Antidegradation
program in place to
protect the existing
high quality waters in
the non-tidal River
and headwaters…but
Vulnerability of Headwaters
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the most sensitive areas of
a watershed
Existing contiguous forest is
critical to water quantity and
quality
Multiple stressors
 Increasing development
& impervious cover
 Road cuts, pipeline
connections,
 Forest Fragmentation
Philadelphia Source Water
Protection Analysis
 #1 threat: Change in
Delaware River
Headwaters
“Adaptation to climate
change is now inevitable…
The only question is will it
be by plan or by chaos?”
Roger Jones, CSIRO, Australia; Co-author of
IPCC
Time to Plan & Take Action
 Partnerships,
multiple agencies and
stakeholders
 Holistic Analysis –
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Geography – basinwide
Water quality, quantity, biological/habitat,
human needs
 Informed
options
decision makers – risks and
Develop Informed Options
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Sophisticated models & scenario testing
Test drought mitigation plans: drought and flood (of
Record ?)
Evaluate effects of reservoir ops on downstream flooding
Evaluate effect of land use change on stream flows
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Analysis / Options based on Potential Risk
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What infrastructure is at risk?
Relative costs/benefits/potential of adapting in place vs.
moving.
Develop Informed Options
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Overlay Climate Change on other water resource
stressors
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Increasing demand – potable supply, power generation, irrigation
Land use change: increased impervious cover, loss of
forests,etc.
Evaluate Adaptation Options
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Reduce Demand - Water Conservation - System Efficiency

Better Stormwater Management
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Need for Increased Upstream Storage (?)

Flood Mitigation – move or protect?
Time for Action !
Thank you.
A
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Water
Availability
2030 Withdrawal
Demand
Instream Flow Needs
(ecological / salinity)
Drought
Vulnerability
Flood
Vulnerability
GOAL: Determine basin-wide concerns, identify location and
magnitude of deficits for vulnerable watersheds and river points
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Reduction of Demand by Conservation Measures
Conservation pricing, drip irrigation, residential irrigation alternatives,
water loss control, plumbing requirements, water reuse, education, etc.
Increasing Instream Flow / Mitigating Flood Loss
Local solutions, LID, riverine buffers, protection of headwaters,
stormwater infiltration, storage in old quarries/ mine rec., ASR
New / Modified Storage & Infrastructure
Water storage / flood mitigation / Interconnections
Extent of Marcellus Shale Formation within
the Delaware River Basin
36% (4,937 mi2) of
the Delaware Basin
is underlain by the
Marcellus Shale
Hydro-fracking Phase –
(a week or two)
Injection pumps, supplies,
and many frack tanks for
fresh and flowback waters
Photos Courtesy NYC DEP
Other Stressors in the Basin
 Increasing
impervious surfaces
 Changing demographics/ water demand –

Population size and location
 Threats

to the Headwaters
Quantity and Quality