Transcript ccac_august_14_2009_(081409).ppt

Climate Change Advisory
Committee
August 14, 2009
Welcome & Introductions
Agenda
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Action Items:
– Approval of Minutes July 17 Meeting
– Approval of Voting Record July 17 Meeting
Updated Cumulative Impacts
Discussion of Establishment of Baseline and Targets
Public Comment
Lunch
Status of Climate Change Action Plan
Federal Legislative and Regulatory Update
Action Item – Approval of Minutes
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July 17th Meeting
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Questions or comments prior to action?
Motion to approve; second; vote
July 17th Voting Record
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Questions or comments prior to action?
Motion to approve; second; vote
Revised Results for Work Plans
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Residential/Commercial –
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Electricity Generation, Transmission, & Distribution (EGTD) –
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W-2 – Cost & cost/ton values revised (cumulative impacts revised)
W-3 – Not approved by CCAC (non-quantified option; no change to cumulative
impacts analysis)
Land Use & Transportation –
–
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E-6 cost and cost/ton values revised (cumulative impacts revised)
Waste –
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RC-5, RC-10, & RC-11 cost & cost/ton values revised (cumulative impacts
analysis revised)
RC-12 – Not approved by CCAC (removed from cumulative impacts analysis)
Revised emission reductions for “Federal Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE
Standards” recent action (cumulative impacts revised)
Forestry –
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F-5 – revised emission reductions for “Shift to Uneven-aged Management”
scenarios (no change to cumulative impacts analysis)
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Comparison of Summary Table – July 17 (top row)
to Revised Results – August 14 (bottom row)
Work
Plan No.
Work Plan Name
Annual
2020
Costs
(M$)
CostEffectiveness
($/tCO2e)
Cumulative
2009-2020
Costs (M$)
CostEffectiveness
($/tCO2e)
RC-5
Commissioning &
Retrocommissioning
PA Buildings
-$0.6
-$17
-$0.4
-$11.2
-$3
-$71
-$0.4
-$7.4
RC-10
DSM- Natural Gas
-$42
-$51
-$6
-$7
-$293
-$357
-$7
-$9
RC-11
Conservation & Fuel
Switching for
Heating Oil
-$21
-$21
-$4
-$4
$136
$140
$4
$4
E-6
Improve Coal-Fired
Efficiency by 5%
$82
$8
$1
$1.5
$903
$101.9
$1
$1.8
W-2
Statewide Recycling
Initiative
-$75
-$41
-$14
-$8
-$451
-$246
-$13
-$7
Revised
Residential/Commercial
Results
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RC-5 (Commissioning and Retrocommissioning PA Buildings)
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RC-10 (DSM - Natural Gas)
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Added cost and energy bill reductions from non-commonwealth buildings
Increased cost savings by $16 million in 2020; $67 million for 2009-2020
Revised 2020 annual cost savings = $17 million ($11.2/tCO2e)
Revised 2009-2020 cumulative cost savings = $71 million ($7.4/tCO2e)
Revised comm. sector estimates to use levelized cost for comm. rather than resid.
Increased cost savings by $9 million in 2020; $64 million for 2009-2020
Revised 2020 annual cost savings = $51 million ($7/tCO2e)
Revised 2009-2020 cumulative cost savings = $357 million ($9/tCO2e)
RC-11 (Conservation and Fuel switching for Heating Oil)
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–
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Revised comm. sector estimates to use levelized cost for comm. rather than resid.
No change to 2020 annual cost savings
Lowered 2009-2020 cumulative costs by $4 million
Revised 2009-2020 cumulative cost savings = $140 million ($4/tCO2e)
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Revised EGTD and Waste
Results
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E-6 (Improve Coal-Fired Power Plant Efficiency by 5%)
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Previous annual 2020 cost was calculated using cumulative emission reductions for
2010 – 2020
Lowered costs by $74 million in 2020; $801.1 million for 2009-2020
Revised 2020 annual cost = $8 million ($1.5/tCO2e)
Revised 2009-2020 cumulative costs = $101.9 million ($1.8/tCO2e)
W-2 (Statewide Recycling Initiative)
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Revised based on Subcommittee revisions to diversion rate (42.4% in Pennsylvania
by 2020)
Lowered cost savings by $34 million in 2020; $205 million for 2009-2020
Revised 2020 annual cost savings = $41 million ($8/tCO2e)
Revised 2009-2020 cumulative cost savings = $246 million ($7/tCO2e)
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Revised Land Use & Transportation
Results
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Recent action for “Federal Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards”
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Remove double-counting of emission reductions for Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) requirements already included in baseline forecast (cumulative impacts
analysis revised)
Emission reductions decrease by 11.15 MMtCO2e for 2020
Previous 2020 annual emission reductions = 12.2 MMtCO2e (July 17 meeting)
Revised 2020 annual emission reductions = 1.05 MMtCO2e
Revised title: “Federal Vehicle GHG Emission Standards”
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Revised Forestry
Results
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F-5 (Improved Forest Management - Shift to Uneven-aged Management Scenario)
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July 17 Meeting – Cumulative emissions were also (incorrectly) shown as 2020 annual
reductions. Correct 2020 annual emissions are:
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Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
1.98 MMtCO2e
1.72 MMtCO2e
1.33 MMtCO2e
1.01 MMtCO2e
Recommended Revisions to Presentation of Results:
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Scenario 1: Reported emissions are included in baseline forecast
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Scenarios 2-4: Revised to show incremental difference in emissions relative to scenario 1
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Revised Results now show emission reductions instead of emission increases
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Scenario 2:
 2020 annual reductions = 0.26 MMtCO2e; 2009-2020 reductions = 0.82 MMtCO2e
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Scenario 3:
 2020 annual reductions = 0.65 MMtCO2e; 2009-2020 reductions = 2.04 MMtCO2e
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Scenario 4:
 2020 annual reductions = 0.97 MMtCO2e; 2009-2020 reductions = 3.07 MMtCO2e
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PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results
Annual Results (2020)
Sector
GHG
Reductions
(MMtCO2e)
Costs
(Million $)
Cumulative Results (2009-2020)
CostEffectiven
ess
($/tCO2e)
GHG
Reductions
(MMtCO2e)
Costs
(NPV,
Million $)
CostEffectiven
ess
($/tCO2e)
Res / Comm
32
-$538
-$17
215
-$3,668
-$17
Electricity GT&D
32
$1,006
$31
131
$1,060
$8
Industry
5.8
-$365
-$62
33
-$1,072
-$33
Waste
5.9
-$49
-$8
37
-$298
-$8
Land Use &
Transportation
6.6
-$494
-$75
60
$2,805
$47
Agriculture
1.4
-$62
-$44
10
-$380
-$37
11.3
-$1,376
-$121
98
-$10,177
-$104
96
-$1,879
-$20*
583
-$17,730
-$20*
Forestry
Total
Note: Underlined values identify numbers that have been revised since the July 17 CCAC meeting.
* Cost-effectiveness value is weighted-average (total costs are divided by total reductions)
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GHG Reductions Associated with
Recent State and Federal Actions
295
290
1
Mostly from Decline in
Industrial Emissions
285
MMtCO2e
280
1
1
2
275
270
1. Reference Case Projection: Consumption; Gross Emissions
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2. Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS): Tier I
265
3. Federal Appliance Standards - Electricity
260
5. Federal Vehicle GHG Emission Standards
4
5
4. Act 129
6, 7, 8
6. Biofuel Development and In-State Production Incentive Act
255
7. Federal Appliance Standards - Natural Gas
8. Diesel Anti-Idling Program
250
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
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PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results
Consumption Basis - Gross Emissions
1990
2000
Projected GHG Emissions (BAU)
279.5
283.9
Reductions from Recent State & Fed. Actions
Projected GHG Emissions After Recent State & Fed.
Actions
2005
2010
2015
2020
278.6
278.1
283.6
289.1
0.0
5.4
14.6
24.6
278.6
272.8
269.1
264.5
Total GHG Reductions from PA Work Plans
95.6
Percent Below 2000 Levels
34%
Projected Emissions After Quantified PA Work Plan
Reductions and Recent Actions
168.8
Production Basis - Gross Emissions
1990
2000
Projected GHG Emissions (BAU)
308.8
316.4
Reductions from Recent State & Fed. Actions
Projected GHG Emissions After Recent State & Fed.
Actions
2005
2010
2015
2020
312.7
311.1
318.9
326.7
0.0
5.4
14.6
24.6
312.7
305.7
304.3
302.1
Total GHG Reductions from PA Work Plans
95.6
Percent Below 2000 Levels
30%
Projected Emissions After Quantified PA Work Plan
Reductions and Recent Actions
206.5
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PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results
Consumption Basis - Net Emissions
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
Projected GHG Emissions (BAU)
249.6
262.7
257.7
257.7
263.6
269.5
0.0
5.4
14.6
24.6
257.7
252.3
249.1
244.9
Reductions from Recent State & Fed. Actions
Projected GHG Emissions After Recent State & Fed.
Actions
2020
Total GHG Reductions from PA Work Plans
95.6
Percent Below 2000 Levels
36%
Projected Emissions After Quantified PA Work Plan
Reductions and Recent Actions
Production Basis - Net Emissions
Projected GHG Emissions (BAU)
Reductions from Recent State & Fed. Actions
Projected GHG Emissions After Recent State & Fed.
Actions
149.3
1990
278.9
2000
295.2
2005
2010
2015
2020
291.8
290.6
298.9
307.1
0.0
5.4
14.6
24.6
291.8
285.3
284.3
282.5
Total GHG Reductions from PA Work Plans
95.6
Percent Below 2000 Levels
32%
Projected Emissions After Quantified PA Work Plan
Reductions and Recent Actions
186.9
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PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results
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PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results
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PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results
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PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results
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PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results
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PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results
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Baselines and Targets Discussion
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) recommendations:
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Mid-term goal: 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020
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Long-term goal: 80% to 95% below 1990 levels by 2050
State Climate Change Activities
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27 states have set some kind of targets
22 states have set 2020 as target year
CCAC recommended 2020 and 2050 target years
Establishing target is necessary for action plan
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Baseline & Target Discussion (cont.)
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PA targets must be established at or by
9/16 meeting
Recommended Work Plans:
Production basis: 32.4% below 2000; 24.2% below 1990
(reference comparison only)
Consumption basis: 36.4% below 2000; 30.3% below 1990
(reference comparison only)
Public Comment
Lunch
Lunch is provided for
CCAC members only.
Thank you.
Climate Change Action Plan
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Outline of Draft Action Plan
Acknowledgements from Committee
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Climate Change Action Plan
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Key Dates -Timeline
9/1
Draft Action Plan (minus macroeconomic analysis) is
forwarded to CCAC for review
9/4 Macroeconomic analysis is forwarded to CCAC for
review
9/11 Conference call to discuss Draft Action Plan and
macroeconomic analysis (pending CCAC approval)
9/16 CCAC Meeting
9/24 Minority Report required to be submitted to DEP for
inclusion in Action Plan
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Climate Change Action Plan
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Key Dates –Timeline (continued)
10/9 Draft Action Plan delivered to General Assembly,
Governor’s Office and Public
10/10 Pa. Bulletin
10/10 to 11/9 30 days for Public Comment Period
11/16 Consolidated public comments sent to CCAC
11/17 to 12/4 CCAC Comment Period (additional 15 days)
12/18 Final Action Plan
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Status of Macroeconomic Analysis –
Adam Rose, USC
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Secured and examined all of the necessary data on
mitigation/sequestration work plans
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Refined REMI’s ability to evaluate cost/saving
pass-throughs
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Made trial runs with REMI
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Began mapping work plans to REMI policy variables
and parameters
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Federal Legislative and Regulatory
Update
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New federal fuel economy standards (CAFÉ)
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EPA granted California’s request for waiver of Clean
Air Act preemption for emission standards
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Joint rulemaking from DOT and EPA on May 19
Decision on June 30 replaces denial of CA’s request in 2008
PA Clean Vehicle Program adopted CA’s emission standards
Emissions cut from new vehicles by 14% from 2008 levels in
2011
Both standards cut emissions by 30% in 2016
Waxman-Markey Bill
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American Clean Energy and Security Act 2009
House voted 219-212 to pass bill on June 26
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ADJOURN