Transcript "Double the Numbers and the Role of Adult Learners"

Double the Numbers
And the Role of Adult Learners
Kentucky Adult Learner Summit
February 4, 2008
John C. Hayek, Ph.D.
Interim, Vice President, Finance
Associate Vice President, Planning & Performance
Council on Postsecondary Education
College readiness/developmental education
2
STEM education and careers
3
Adult education
4
Affordability and access
5
Degree production and productivity
6
Kentucky’s 2020 vision
Postsecondary Education Improvement Act of 1997
(HB 1)
Increase educational attainment and promote economic
development to raise the standard of living and quality of life in the
Commonwealth above the national average by the year 2020
Kentucky Adult Education Act of 2000 (SB 1)
Acknowledges adult literacy as a fundamental barrier to every
major challenge facing Kentucky and calls for a multi-faceted
strategy to address the low level of education of Kentucky’s adult
population
7
Reform is working
15%
Four-Year Enrollment Growth:
Before and After Reform
9%
10%
5%
0%
0%
1991-98
1998-2005
Public and Independent Four-Year Institutions
Undergraduate, Graduate and Professional
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Reform is working
Growth in Degrees:
Before and After Reform
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
23%
12%
1991-98
1998-2005
Public and Independent Four-Year Institutions
Associates, Bachelor’s, Graduate and Professional Degrees
9
Reform is working
Growth in Associate Degrees:
Before and After Reform
60%
40%
20%
0%
59 %
20%
1991-98
Includes all public, two-year institutions in 1991 and 1998
1998-2005
10
Reform is working
Growth in Adult Education College
Going and Enrollment
144%
150%
120%
90%
60%
58%
30%
0%
GED to College
1998-2002
Enrollment
2000-2005
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Reform is working
Growth in Federal R&D Investment:
Before and After Reform
200%
157%
150%
100%
62%
50%
0%
1992-98
Annual Federal R&D Expenditures at all Kentucky Institutions
1998-2004
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Still a long way to go
Bachelor’s Degrees
 Despite fifth largest percentage increase in the nation (1990-2000),
Kentucky remains:
 47th in adults with at least a bachelor’s degree
High School or GED Graduates
 Despite the largest increase (9.5%) in the nation (1990-2000),
Kentucky remains:
 49th in adults with at least a high school diploma or equivalent
Per Capita Income
 Despite 29% increase since 1998, Kentucky remains:
 43rd in per capita income
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Necessity of
increasing
college
graduates
The single factor
with the greatest power
to explain differences in
per capita income between states
is the percentage of college graduates.
Milken Institute, 2002
$30,000
High Income, Low Educational Attainment
High Income, High Educational Attainment
CT
State New Economy Index (2004)
Top Tier
Middle Tier
NJ
Low Tier
MA
MD
$25,000
DE
Personal Income
Per Capita, 2000
CA
AK
NV
FL
OH
IN
$20,000
TN
SC
OK
AR
US
WI GA
OR
PA
NC AZ
MO
IA ME
TX
WY
AL
KY
WV
MI
LA
ID
SD
NM
IL
NH VA
NYMN
WA
CO
HI RI
VT
KS
NE
ND
UT
MT
MS
Low Income, Low Educational Attainment
$15,000
15%
20%
25%
Low Income, High Educational Attainment
30%
35%
40%
Percent of the Adults Population Ages 25 to 64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
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Necessity of
increasing
college
graduates
in Kentucky
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Necessity of
increasing
college
graduates
in Kentucky
States that experienced the greatest increases in
educational attainment also experienced the
greatest increases in personal income from 1980 to
2000.
300%
MA
250%
NH
GA
NC
CT
Percent Change
in Personal
Income Per
Capita (from
1980 to 2000)
CO
200%
MS
TX
IDOR
UT
CA
NM
NV
HI
150%
ME
KY
IL
RI
PA
WV
LAAZ
OK
DE WA
NJ
SD
NY TN MN VT
SC
VAND
MD
ALNE
MO
US
AR
IN
MI
FL
WI
OH
IA
KS
MT
WY
100%
AK
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Percent Change in the Adult Population Ages 25 to 64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (from 1980 to 2000)
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Where does
Double the Numbers
come from?
Goal:
To achieve postsecondary education reform
goals, Kentucky must double the number of
people with at least a bachelor’s degree by 2020
791,000
800,000
211,000
23%
32%
Gap:
211,000
bachelor’s
degree
holders
19%
400,000
580,000
402,000
0
2000 (actual)
2020 (target)
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Double the Numbers Plan
Five Strategies
1. Raise high school graduation rates
2. Increase GED graduates and
transition more to college
3. Enroll more first-time students at
KCTCS and increase transfers to 4year programs
4. Increase college attendance and
completion
5. Attract college-educated workers to
Kentucky and create new jobs
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Statewide strategies, tactics, and targets
Strategy #1
Raise high school graduation
rates
• Expand opportunities for students to earn college credits during high school
• More intervention programs in middle and high school to identify and remediate gaps
in preparation for college
• Increase the number of high school graduates from 40,000 to 48,000
• Increase high school graduation rate of 9th graders from 72% to 81%
Strategy #2
Increase the number of GED
graduates and transition more
to college
• Higher academic standards so graduates are better prepared for transition to
college and high quality employment
• Enhanced teacher standards and professional development
• Increase college-going of GED graduates from 19% to 36%
• Increase annual number of GED graduates from 9,000 to 15,000
Strategy #3
Enroll more first-time students
at KCTCS and transfer them
to 4-year programs
• Improve general education credit transfer
• Keep KCTCS affordable
• Increase KCTCS enrollment from 86,500 to 115,800
• Increase number of students transferring from KCTCS to four-year universities
from 3,100 to 11,300
Strategy #4
Increase number of
Kentuckians attending and
completing college
• Increase high school college-going rate from 62% to 74%
• Increase adult college participation rate from 3.6% to 4.5%
• Raise the postsecondary system’s graduation rate from 44% to 56%
Strategy #5
Attract college-educated
workers to Kentucky and
create new jobs
• Create new jobs to attract college-educated, out-of-state residents
• Keep college graduates working in Kentucky
• Increase number of jobs requiring at least a bachelor’s degree
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Adults with some college, no BA degree
25-64, Some college, no
degree 2000
25-64, Associate
degree 2000
25-64, Total, Some
college or Associate
degree
EKU
44,872
12,100
56,972
KSU
17,884
4,963
22,847
Morehead
44,332
12,561
56,893
Murray
50,082
14,489
64,571
NKU
45,933
12,058
57,991
WKU
68,171
19,847
88,018
UK
55,599
17,584
73,183
UofL
103,243
28,878
132,121
TOTAL
430,116
122,480
552,596
Service Region
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000
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KCTCS Transfers to 4-year institutions
12,000
10,000
11,300
8,000
6,000
5,800
4,000
2,000
3,613
3,868
3,907
2003-04
2005-06
0
2001-02
2009-10
2020 Goal
Source: CPE Comprehensive Database
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College-going rate of GED graduates
40%
36%
30%
20%
19%
22%
21%
10%
0%
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2009-10
2020 Goal
Source: Kentucky Adult Education
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2020 bachelor’s degree targets
EKU, 3,397
Independents,
8,231
KSU, 542
Morehead, 1,799
Independents,
3,801
EKU, 1,980
KSU, 198
Morehead, 1055
Murray, 2,834
Murray, 1,521
UofL, 3,043
UofL, 2,253
NKU, 3,149
NKU, 1,584
WKU, 2,313
UK, 3,519
WKU, 4,324
UK, 6,349
2006
2020
Bachelor’s Degrees: 18,700
Bachelor’s Degrees: 33,700
Source: CPE Comprehensive Database, 2020 Projections
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2006-08 college access initiative
Target Audiences
 GEAR UP/At-risk high school
students
 Adults with some college
 GED graduates and adults
without high school degree
 Potential transfer students
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2006-08 college access initiative
KentuckyCAN!
 Launched August 9th as a
collaborative program of CPE and
Prichard Committee
 Network of public, private, civic and
faith-based organizations and
individuals
 Developed to magnify the efforts of
college access effort across the state
 Grassroots arm of the College
Access Campaign
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27
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Presentation to
Transition
Committee on
Education
CPE Funding Model and Budget
Recommendation
 Double the Numbers Fund
 Developmental Education, STEM, and
Other Statewide Priorities such as Bucks
for Brains
 Necessity of support for adult education,
college access, community outreach,
and transfers
Accountability System
 Measures annual progress toward 2020
goals
 State and institution key performance
indicators
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Double the Numbers
And the Role of Adult Learners
Kentucky Adult Learner Summit
February 4, 2008
John C. Hayek, Ph.D.
Interim, Vice President, Finance
Associate Vice President, Planning & Performance
Council on Postsecondary Education