Transcript AOSS_NRE_480_L16_Policy_Intro_Peer_20140318.ppt

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2014
March 18, 2014
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14
• Something I am playing with
– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
• Assignment
– Emailed
– Posted
Politics of
Dismissal Entry
Model
Uncertainty
Description
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
Readings on Local Servers
• Reading to understand relation of science to
policy
– Jasanoff: The Fifth Branch (Chapter 1)
• Foundational References
–
–
–
–
UNFCCC: Text of Convention
Kyoto Protocol: Text
Kyoto Protocol: Introduction and Summary
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Web Portal
Reading Response: Due March 24, 2014
• Socolow and Pacala, “Stabilization
Wedges,” Scientifc American, 2006 (link)
• Other versions, additional reading
– Pacala and Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges,”
Science, 2004 (link)
– Socolow, “Wedges Reaffirmed,” Climate
Central, 2011 (link)
– Blog at climateprogress (link)
Wedges on the Web
• Carbon Mitigation Initiative @ Princeton
University
Today
• Structured problem solving / Redux
• Policy Interface 1: General considerations
– Uncertainty Fallacy
• Policy Interface 2: Global Mitigation
– Global Mitigation
We arrive at levels of granularity
WEALTH
Need to introduce spatial scales as well
Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change
LOCAL
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
GLOBAL
SPATIAL
Small scales inform large scales.
Large scales inform small scales.
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
Election
time scales
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
0 years
25 years
There are short-term issues
important to climate change.
50 years
75 years
100 years
Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition
• The details of the problem often de-correlate
pieces of the problem.
– What do I mean? Think about heat waves?
• This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based
experts, and the ability to generalize.
– For example --- Detroit is like Chicago.
• The consideration of the system as a whole
causes tensions – trade offs - optimization
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration
Today
• Structured problem solving / Redux
• Policy Interface 1: General considerations
– Uncertainty Fallacy
• Policy Interface 2: Global Mitigation
– Global Mitigation
Policy
• A natural reaction to greenhouse gas
emissions is to look to government, to the
development of policy to address the
problems that we are faced with.
Policy
• What do we look to policy to accomplish?
– Some common, relevant purposes of policy
• Stimulate technology: Provide incentives or disincentives for
behavior. (Often through financial or market forces.)
• Set regulations: Put bounds on some type of behavior, with
penalties if the bounds are exceeded.
• Make internal some sort of procedure or behavior or cost that
is currently external.
– A more abstract point of view
• Represents collective values of society: what is acceptable
and what is not.
• Interface with the law?
• Provides the constraints and limits, the checks and balances
in which we run our economy.
Policy-climate science interface (1)
• It is sensible to look at governance and policy to address
climate change
– It’s a “greater good” problem
– It relates to natural resources and waste from the use of natural
resources
– It matters to economic and national security
– There is precedence (Ozone and Acid Rain)
• Given the relation to energy and wealth it is natural to
expect there will not to be a “one size fits all solution” for
climate change.
– One size fits all is one of the most common traps that
“managers” and “leaders” fall into.
• Feeds polarization and rhetoric
• Guided to one size by political interests
Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty
Knowledge from Predictions
Motivates
policy
Uncertainty of the Knowledge
that is Predicted
1) Uncertainty always exists
2) New uncertainties will be revealed
3) Uncertainty can always be used to
keep policy from converging
Policy
Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty
Knowledge from Predictions
Motivates
policy
Uncertainty of the Knowledge
that is Predicted
Policy
1) Uncertainty always exists
2) New uncertainties will be revealed
3) Uncertainty can always be used to keep
policy from converging
What we are doing now is, largely, viewed as successful. We are reluctant to
give up that which is successful. We are afraid that we will suffer loss.
A Premise
• Climate change problem cannot be solved
in isolation.
• Requires integration with all elements of
society.
– Requires identification of reasons to motivate
us to take action
• Apparent benefit
• Excess Risk
A Conclusion about Policy
• Policy cannot stand alone as our response to climate
change.
– Every person and every group of people will feel the impact of
climate change, and therefore, by feel the impact of policy to
address climate change.
• In fact, some feel that there are more policy impacts than climate
change impacts.
• Policy has to not only be effective, but it has to include
and balance the interests of all who have a stake.
– Policy opportunity
• Policy represents our values – our societal belief system.
– It sets the bounds on behavior to benefit society
The Uncertainty Fallacy
• That the systematic reduction of scientific
uncertainty will lead to development of
policy is a fallacy.
– Uncertainty can always be used to keep
policy from converging.
– That is – this is a political issue
• What might lead to successful policy
efforts?
Today
• Structured problem solving / Redux
• Policy Interface 1: General considerations
– Uncertainty Fallacy
• Policy Interface 2: Global Mitigation
– Global Mitigation
The Official Policy is:
• United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
– Framework Convention on Climate Change
What is COP?
• COP is the Conference of Parties
– Parties are those countries who have signed
the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change. There are 192 signatories.
• Essential Background UNFCCC
Michigan Observer Status
• Framework Convention Parties and
Observers
– Parties are signatories of Framework
Convention
– Observers are invited to the meeting for
participation, transparency, and accountability
• United Nations Representatives
• Intergovernmental Organizations
• Non-governmental Organizations
– Virtual Participation
Framework Convention on Climate Change
(US in part of this.)
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(1992, non-binding, voluntary, 192 signers)
– Reduce CO2 Emissions in 2000 to 1990 levels
– Inventories of greenhouse gas emissions
– Mitigate Climate Change
• Mid-1990’s
– No reduction in emissions
– Evidence of warming and impacts
Framework Convention on Climate Change
Development of International Approach to Climate Change
1988
1992
1995
1997
2001
2009
2007
IPCC
established
Framework
Convention
(UNFCCC)
Kyoto
Protocol
Copenhagen
Accord
Scientific
assessment
Non-binding
aim
Binding
emissions
target
Keep warming
less than 2 C
Dangerous climate change?
• What is dangerous?
Stern Report: Influential: Useful for thinking about problem
• Draws on recent science which points to
‘significant risks of temperature increases above
5°C under business-as-usual by the early part
of the next century’ — other studies typically
have focused on increases of 2–3°C.
• Treats aversion to risk explicitly.
• Adopts low pure time discount rates to give
future generations equal weight.
• Takes account of the disproportionate impacts
on poor regions.
Dangerous climate change?
Stern, 2006
Stern Report
• Considered a radical revision of climate change
economics.
– If we don’t act now it will cost between 5% and 20%
of gross domestic product (an aggregate measure of
economy.)
• Stands in contrast to many studies that usually
come to numbers of closer to 1%
– The idea that initiation of a policy with a slow growth
rate will have little impact on the economy or
environment in the beginning, but will ultimately
become important when the nature of expenditures is
more clear.
Some carry away messages
• Determine what is a tolerable ceiling for carbon
dioxide.
- Gives cap for a cap and trade system.
- Tolerable ceilings have been posed as between 450
and 550 ppm.
- Ice sheet melting and sea level?
- Oceanic circulation / The Gulf Stream?
- Ocean acidification?
- Determine a tolerable measure of increased
temperature
- Copenhagen Accord (2009)  2o C
Dangerous climate change?
Stern, 2006
1992 Convention Commitments
• All Parties agree to:
4.1.b. Mitigate emissions and enhance sinks
4.1.c. Promote technology development and
transfer
4.1.e. Cooperate on research and observation
• Developed Countries’ aim to return emissions
to 1990 levels by the end of the century
Assessment
• Mid-1990’s
– No reduction in emissions
– Evidence of warming and impacts
• 2001
– No reduction in emissions
– Evidence of warming and impacts
• 2007
– No reduction in emissions
– Evidence of warming and impacts
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
“This generation
has altered the
composition of the
atmosphere on a
global scale
through…a steady
increase in carbon
dioxide from the
burning of fossil
fuels.”
--Lyndon Johnson
Special Message
to Congress,
1965
Data and more information
Kyoto Protocol followed 1995 assessments
• Is the Kyoto Protocol still relevant?
– It has officially expired
– It frames much of the language we use
– It sets a foundation for market-based
approaches to climate change
– Some countries strive to adhere to the
protocol
Constituencies in the community
• OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation
and Development
• Annex 1: Developed Countries and Economies
in Transition
– List of Annex 1 countries
• Annex 2: The OECD Countries
– Provide financial and technical support to Economies in
Transition
• Annex B: Annex 1 parties with emission targets
• Least Developed Countries
Constituencies in the community
• “G-77” and China: ~130 developing countries,
work by consensus (generally represent The
Africa Group)
– Economic development and emission limits
– Sell their potential carbon credits for profit
• The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)
– Tightest control on global emissions
• Organization of Petroleum Export Countries
(OPEC)
– Protection of their economic well being
Constituencies in the community
• European Union (EU)
– Coordinated position as environmental leader with
very ambitious emission reduction goals
• Japan, U.S., Switzerland, Canada, Australia,
Norway, New Zealand (JUSSCANNZ)
– Non-EU developed countries
– Cost of tackling the climate problem
• U.S., Canada, Australia: Low-efficiency energy use
• Japan, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand: High-efficiency
energy use
Kyoto Protocol
• Kyoto Protocol (December, 1997, binding
limits on or reduction of emissions)
– Must be signed (155 signers (?186)) and
ratified
• At least 55 countries
• That represent 55 % or more of emissions
– Open for signatures on March 16, 1998
– Went into effect on February 16, 2005
• After Russia signed and ratified
Kyoto Protocol Requirements
• Developed nations reduce their emissions 5.2% below 1990
emissions
– Reduction (increases) vary across countries
– Relaxed a little over the years to attract signers
– (Treaty: U.S. 7% reduction: Actual: 12% higher in 2004, 30% by 2012)
• Addresses “six” greenhouse gases (CO2, Methane CH4, Nitrous
Oxide N2O, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur
hexafluoride)
• Commitment period 2008-2012
• Set of other activities
–
–
–
–
Improve “local emission factors”
Inventories of emissions and sinks
Mitigation and adaptation plans
Environmentally sound technology diffusion to developing nations
Kyoto Protocol Issues
• Amount and distribution for limits and
reductions
• What greenhouse gases to include
• Developing countries in or out of emission
requirements
• Trading, market-based mechanisms
• Role of removing greenhouse gases
Kyoto Protocol: Important Add ons
• Market-based mechanisms
– Emissions trading
– Joint implementation
– Clean development mechanisms
Flexibility in Achieving Targets
• “What” flexibility
– Targets apply to CO2-equivalent emissions
of basket of six GHGs
– Can use carbon sinks (e.g. forests) as
offsets
• “When” flexibility
– Five-year commitment period
– Banking
• “Where” flexibility
– Market mechanisms: ET, JI, CDM
Thanks to Rosina Bierbaum
“Flaws” in Kyoto Protocol
• Participation of Developing Countries
– Large populations, large projected growth
• Participation of the United States
– Large portion of greenhouse gas emissions
• Other “flaws”
– Does not go far enough: Emission goals don’t
adequately mitigate dangerous climate
change
– 2008-2012 commitment period – then what?
Climate Assessment
• Perhaps the most present accomplishment
of international climate change policy is
assessment
– Regular ~ 5 years assessment of the state of
the knowledge
– Provides translation of the scientific literature
for policy makers
Generation and reporting of scientific knowledge
Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Problem Solving
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Refereed Journals
Unification
Integration
Assessments
Peer Review: Understanding Science Berkeley
Reviewers:
• Anonymous
• Recuses himself / herself if
prejudiced
Authors Often:
• Chooses amongst Editors
• Recommends Reviewers
• Provides names of Collaborators
• Provides names of Competitors
Editors:
• Often volunteer from community
• Approved by publisher
• Professional society
• Commercial publisher
• Recuses himself / herself if
prejudiced
Peer Review
• Standard in Science, Social Science, and
Academics
– Part of the checking – or validation process
– Designed to provide checks and balances to human
behavior – supports objectivity
– Slow from submission to publication  many months
 years
– Attacked as closed and prejudiced (East Anglia email
hack )
– Current efforts to shake it up, open it up, speed it up
Peer Review
• New efforts at “Open Review”
– American Geophysical Union Experiment
– Open Review Chronicle for Higher Ed
• Some links to peer review
– Cracking Open Scientific Processes, 2011
– European Peer Review, 2011
– Future of Peer Review, 1997
– Peerless Science: Peer Review and the U.S.
Science Policy, 1990
Peer Review
• The world, as a whole, does not follow a
peer review process
– Reports
– Analysis
– News
– Self Interests
• New models of publication
– Mediacommons
Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Problem Solving
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Refereed Journals
Unification
Integration
Assessments
Assessment
• Bringing together knowledge to evaluate
that knowledge as a body of work relevant
to some specific subject or application.
– What can we say about climate change?
– What are the gaps in knowledge?
– How certain are we?
– Reconcile conflicting information?
• How the scientific community
communicates with policy makers
Some Assessments
• USGCRP (US Global Change Research
Program) Scientific Assessments
– National Climate Assessment (current)
– First National Climate Assessment (2000)
– Synthesis and Assessment Reports
• Climate Change Science Program
– National Academy of Sciences
– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
(The assessment process)
How is this
information
evaluated,
integrated and
transmitted to
policymakers?
Published in refereed
literature
IPCC CLIMATE
REPORTS
2001
2007
What we know + uncertainty
U.S. Climate Change Science
Program
 U.S. Global Change
Research Program
 Assessments
U.S. National Assessment
National Academy of Sciences
Study Process
Review by
government officials
// Final language //
All agree
Scientist-authors are
nominated by
governments to
assess the state of
the science
Draft documents are
reviewed by experts
who did NOT write
the draft. // Open
review as well
Draft revised
IPCC Report Process
Note
A paper of interest
• Daniel Farber:
– Review of Climate Modeling Activities and
why they should have legal standing.
Where do assessments sit in problem solving?
Iconic and Fundamental Figures
Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate
SUN: ENERGY, HEAT
EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Sun-Earth System in Balance
SUN
EARTH
PLACE AN
INSULATING
BLANKET
AROUND
EARTH
The addition to the
blanket is CO2
FOCUS ON
WHAT IS
HAPPENING
AT THE
SURFACE
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary
increase comes
from burning
fossil fuels –
coal, oil,
natural gas
Data and more information
Temperature and CO2: The last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
 Medieval warm period
 “Little ice age”
 Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2
increases beyond approximately 300 ppm,
the value seen in the previous graph as the
upper range of variability in the past
350,000 years.
The Earth System
SUN
CLOUD-WORLD
ATMOSPHERE
ICE
(cryosphere)
OCEAN
LAND
Radiation Balance Figure
Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)
1998
Climate Forcing
(-2.7, -0.6)
2001
Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001)
(-3.7, 0.0)