Climate Change

October 29, 2007 By: Mr. Slater (Ms. Slater’s father-in-law)

The Greenhouse Effect

CO 2 Levels are More Than 30% Higher Than Pre-industrialized Levels 380 360 372ppm in 2002 340 * 320 300 280 * 260 900 * * * * 1000 * 1100 ** ** * * * * ** * * * * * * * * ** ** *** 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are now at levels unprecedented in at least the past 400,000 years

The Carbon Cycle

What is a Carbon Sink?

Green House Gases (GHGs)

 Carbon Dioxide  Methane  Nitrous oxide  Sulphur hexafluoride  Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s)  Perflurocarbons Up to 20,000 times more potent than CO 2 Come from diverse sources: from wetlands and cow burps to transportation and industry

Average Global Temperature Has Increased by Approximately 0.6

0 Since the Late 19th Century

Temperature Patterns in Canada will Change Substantially by 2050 What are GCM’s?

Heat Waves in Canadian Cities are Expected to Become More Frequent

Fredericton Quebec Toronto London Winnipeg Calgary Victoria 2080 2100 2041 2069 2020 2040 1961 1990 0 10 20 30 40 50 Number of days above 30 0 C 60 70 80 … and warmer weather means the possible arrival of exotic diseases

Much of Canada’s Coastline is Sensitive to Sea-level Rise

… and melting sea ice has implications for Arctic sovereignty

The General Effects

• Higher temperatures will effect eco systems • Flooding of coastal areas • Storms more severe and frequent • Floods and Droughts

Extreme Events Can Cause Many Types of Disasters

Lightning damage Floods Fires Wind damage Ecological disaster Loss of life Structural damage

The Risk of Forest Fires Will Increase

Coastal Erosion Means Buildings, Roads and Railways Will Have to be Moved

…and Finally There are Small Risks of Impacts of Catastrophic Proportions

Primary Sources of GHGs

 Burning fossil fuels  Industry  Transportation  Refrigeration systems  Deforestation  Agriculture and livestock  Volcanoes

The problem is not just about increasing sources, but also the reduction of ‘sinks’

Not Just Warming

 Some places will experience cooling  Longer Growing Season  Animals winter outside  Changes in water distribution – flooding and droughts  Melting glaciers and rising sea level  Spread of Tropical Diseases  Storms will be more frequent and more violent

Impacts of Climate Change

 Impacts are felt on many different scales  Local – urban heat  Regional – Arctic, Prairies, Maritimes  National – Becomes a warmer country  Global – Environmental refugees

Impacts in Other Countries Have Implications for Canada

 Environmental refugees  3 billion more in water stressed regions  200 million more displaced by sea level rise  80 million more malnourished  Offshore disasters  Financial assistance  Peace making/keeping  International conflict over dwindling natural resources  Darfur (Sudan)

State of Play of Climate Change

 Science is clear – serious problem that needs to be dealt with immediately  Must be dealt with at global level  Emission reductions can take place anywhere in world  Global Convention 1992  Kyoto Protocol 1997  Protocol ratified in 2002, in effect 2003

Climate Change Plan

Canada’s “Kyoto Gap”

900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550

1990 Emissions: 607 Mt

500

1990 1995 2000 Projected 2010 Business as Usual Emissions: 809 Mt 2001 Emissions: 720 Mt 2005 Business as Usual “Kyoto Gap”: 270 Mt Kyoto Target -6%: 571 Mt 2010 2015 2020

… and Canada is Furthest From its Target 10 5 0 -5 -10 30 25 20 15 *These countries have reached or surpassed their Kyoto target in 2002 but in France and the United Kingdom emissions started to increase in 2002

So What is Needed?

 New sources of energy  New technologies  New ways of doing business  Responsible extraction and use of resources  New social/community values  Regulations, taxes, trade in emissions  Incentives, rewards, recognition  Leadership

What Has Happened Since Kyoto?

 Main elements of program in place but very slow implementation  Conservative government backed out but now is legally obligated to follow-up on Kyoto commitments  30% increase in CO 2 emissions

Commissioner on Environment and Sustainable Development

  “Achieving success on a problem as pervasive as climate change demands that all levels of government, industry and business groups, science, academia, and civil society organizations collaborate.” “…developing and deploying new technology will play a key role in building a healthier and more sustainable future. Canadians will have the opportunity to contribute and compete at home and globally.”

Johanne Gelinas, 2006 Commissioners Report to Parliament

Canada’s Clean Air Plan (Oct 2006)

 New baseline of 2003  Intensity targets up to 2020  Emission caps for sectors 2020 to 2030  National target 45-65% reduction by 2050  Kyoto not mentioned  Canada subject to Kyoto penalties Good enough?

Takeaways

 Climate change is real and already happening  “greatest challenge to humanity this century”  Global approach essential but Canada not pulling its weight  Technology is seen as being integral to combat climate change  Full long-term consequences unknown

The End