Transcript Typhoon tracks shift during the 20th century over the western north

Typhoon tracks shift during the 20th century
over the western north Pacific
Hisayuki Kubota
Research Institute for Global Change,
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
(JAMSTEC)
(Helen Reef in Palau)
Acknowledgements
•
•
•
Data Integration & Analysis System (DIAS)
Global Environment Research Fund B-061
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 20240075 and 21684028
Cooperation with
• Central Weather Bureau, Dr. Mong-Ming Lu
• Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Dr.
Susan R. Espinueva
• Hong Kong Observatory, Mr. Edwin W. L. Ginn
• Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Dr. Zhao Bingke
Collaborators
• Prof. Bin Wang (International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii)
• Prof. Johnny C. L. Chan (Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre,
City University of Hong Kong)
• Dr. Mong-Ming Lu (Central Weather Bureau)
• Prof. Jun Matsumoto (JAMSTEC/ Tokyo Metropolitan University)
• Dr. Kooiti Masuda (JAMSTEC)
Sharing historical data with
• Dr. Kumi Kataoka (Shumei University)
• Prof. Chih-Wen Hung (National Taiwan Normal University)
• Dr. Joo-Hong Kim (National Taiwan University)
Intensified TC increases associated with the increase of SST
However Chan (2006) insists TC trends
is a part of inter-decadal variability.
Longer dataset is needed to understand
TC variability further.
Emanuel (2005)
PDI: Power Dissipation Index
Atlantic Ocean temperature and TCs trends
Knutson et al. (2010)
Available global tropical cyclone track datasets
1945-
1877-
1949-
1851-
1877-
by NCAR
Purpose
•Historical typhoon track data are collected back to 19th century over the
western North Pacific.
•Typhoon track dataset for 100 years is created over the western north Pacific.
• Typhoon variability is investigated during the past 100 years.
Monthly Bulletins of Philippines Weather Bureau
(1901-1940)
stored in Hamilton Library
at University of Hawaii
300 stations observation data
Typhoon tracks over the WNP
Udias (1996) BAMS
Introducing 19th-20th century
meteorological observation over
the world
Philippine weather observation
Spanish (from 1865)
American (20th century)
meteorologists
collected 2007-2008
First observation of TC passage by instruments at Manila in Sep 26-28 1865
barometer
temperature
humidity
wind direction
Deppermann (1939)
Typhoon track and surface isobar map
on May 1913
Typhoon tracks were detected by using
station observations, ship observations
reports of typhoon eyes and damages.
Taiwan TC track data
Available data: TC location, central surface pressure, maximum wind speed
1897 and 1898
received from CWB on 2008
Shieh et al. (1998)
Seasonality of typhoon track
1893-1918
Major four typhoon track dataset
were used
(Philippines, Japan, Hong Kong,
and Zi-ka-Wei)
Visher 1922 MWR
Historical typhoon track data collected and digitized over the
western north Pacific
digitized
collected
Philippines
(Univ. Hawaii)
available
Japan
(JMA library)
Hong Kong
Shanghai(Zi-Ka-Wei)
(Hong Kong Observatory) (Shanghai observatory)
（1958 reedited）
（1957 reedited）
Historical typhoon track data over western north Pacific
period
coverage
typhoon definition
data
interval
reference
Central
Philippine Weather Meteorological
Hong Kong
Bureau
Observatory Tokyo Observatory
Japan and Taiwan
1902-1940 Aug.
1892-1977
1884-1953
WNP
WNP
WNP up to 30N
less than 750mmHg
more than 64kt
N/A
(1000hPa)
and others
Typhoon locations
Typhoon locations
Typhoon locations
and date, (some)
and date
and date
center pressure
daily (some 6
daily (some 6
6 hourly
hourly)
hourly)
interpolated
Monthly Bulletins Geophysical Review . Chin, P. C., 1958:
of Philippine
1900-1950, CMOJ Tropical cyclones
Weather Bureau
1951: Typhoon
in the Western
1902-1940
tracks 1940-1950, Pacific and China
Xu, H. et al. 1973: Sea area from
80 years typhoon 1884 to 1953
track 1892-1977
Zi-Ka-Wei
(Shanghai)
Observatory
1884-1957
WNP
N/A
Typhoon locations
and date
daily
Gao and Zeng
1957: Typhoon
tracks and
statistical analysis
Digital Tropical Cyclone tracks over the Western North Pacific from 1902 to 1940
Data source
Monthly Bulletins of the Philippine Weather Bureau 1901-1940
Datasets
TC (tropical cyclone) track locations
Data files
TYByyyymmdd.a.dat (for example: TYB19020706.a.dat)
yyyymmdd: It is the first date of each TC track.
Data format
YYYYMMDDHH lat lon type flag
1902 7 6 12 12.19 128.34 2 1
1902 7 7 12 12.25 125.63 2 1
1902 7 8 12 12.57 123.54 2 1
1902 7 9 12 13.36 121.16 2 1
1902 7 10 12 14.70 118.30 2 1
1902 7 11 12 17.09 114.66 2 1
HH: Philippine local time (+8 hours GMT)
This data is available at
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/drc/maps/e/k
adai/mon/mon_tt.html
Typhoon definition compared by landfall numbers in the Philippines
To check the reliability of the historical datasets
• 1945-2005 when TS passed over Philippines
Max wind speed >35kt (JTWC TS best track data)
(JMA best track data used for comparison)
• 1902-1939 when TS passed over Philippines
ps <1000hPa observed at station using
Monthly Bulletins of Philippines Weather Bureau
Comparison between two definitions
Typhoon landfall from 1951-1978 by “Tropical Cyclones
Summaries from 1948 to 1978”
Max wind speed >35kt TS 124(JTWC), 124(JMA)
Ps<1000 hPa
107
105
(difference 13.7%,
15.3%)
Kubota and Chan (2009)
Quality check of the density of typhoon numbers over the WNP
• Restrict the target area, within
600km radius of each weather station
•Check typhoon passage through
the perturbation of the station
pressure data
80% of typhoons passed target
area (JTWC, JMA)
Count enough numbers of
typhoons throughout the year
near Philippines from 1908
▼ : typhoon by Philippines dataset
▼: typhoon by Hong Kong dataset
▼: typhoon by Japan dataset
▲ :typhoon landed Philippines
Typhoon track dataset over the target area 1910-2009
1910
1911-1939
1940
1941-1944
1945-2009
Combination of Philippine and Japan dataset
Philippine Weather Bureau
Japan (Central Meteorological Observatory of Tokyo Japan)
data missing
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Historical daily rainfall dataset created from early 20th century
Korea 1904-2008
Japan 1888-2009
Taiwan 1897-2009
Philippines 1891-2009
Hong Kong 1884-2010
Manila Central
Observatory + PAGASA
South Seas Bureau & WNP islands
1923-2009
South Sea Bureau+PACRAIN
Typhoon numbers of the target area over the Western North Pacific
MBP+CMOJ
JTWC
JMA
:10 years running mean
10-20N
>20N
<10N
MBP, JTWC
JMA
Trends in typhoon numbers
5°×5°boxes
▲：95% significant
▲：99% significant
Typhoon numbers differences (1910-39), (1980-2009)
1910-39
1980-2009
Total annual
20.2 (1910-39)
20.5 (1980-2009)
▲：90%
significant
▲：95% significant
Discussions
Typhoon frequency difference (El Niño – La Niña)
•: 95% significant
Weakening of Walker circulation during 20th century
SLP Trends from 1861 from 1992
Vecchi (2006)
Eastward intensification of low-level westerly wind
over tropical western Pacific
Trends from 1950 to 2008
Tokinaga et al. 2011 submitted
Summary
• Historical typhoon track dataset during the 20th century is created.
Collect historical typhoon track data during the early 20th century
Digitize the data reported in books
Perform the quality check compared to the present data
Connect the data with the present available data
• Typhoon variability during the past 100 years is investigated.
Typhoon numbers have inter-decadal variability but no trend over the target
area of WNP.
Typhoon tracks have trends during the 20th century .
Typhoon track tends to shift northward from low latitude to higher latitude, and
eastward from coastal region along Philippines Sea to the eastern region during
the past 80 years.
To explain the typhoon track shift pattern, we need further discussions.
謝謝
Taiwan and Okinawa, HadSLP sea level pressure JJA
HadSLP
Taiwan, Okinawa
21years running
mean correlation
+1000hPa
Historical northern hemisphere Weather map
Stored in JMA library
1899-1956
By US Weather Bureau