Transcript Assessing Army Deployments to OEF/OIF Tim Bonds Dave Baiocchi

Assessing Army Deployments
to OEF/OIF
Tim Bonds
Dave Baiocchi
September 2009
Objective: Determine How Close Army Is To Providing Maximum Flow
of Soldiers To OIF/OEF
• Approach: High-level assessment using data from OSD sources
– Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) analyses for USD (P&R)
• Provides “snapshots” of troop deployments to OIF/OEF
• Assess Army Soldier deployments to date
– Extend analyses to assess cumulative deployments and troop flows
– How Army manages troop needs of OIF/OEF and other assigned
missions and tasks
• Where data available, look to other Services as a benchmark
– We will focus on “Active Duty” Soldiers
• Assess degree to which Army could provide more, considering:
– Flow of Soldiers from recruits to veterans (to ending time in service)
– Balance between OIF/OEF and other important missions and activities
Deployments to OEF/OIF-2 Jul-09
DMDC Presentation Provides “Snapshot” Of Current Force
(Based on end strength as of December 31, 2008)
Navy
Army
11.1%
8.0%
31.7%
21.0%
17.0%
44.9%
30.2%
36.1%
Marine Corps
18.6%
Air Force
12.2%
7.9%
45.8%
27.8%
14.0%
47.6%
26.2%
* Based on all active duty regular Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps members in the DMDC Active Duty
End Strength
Files and deployments in the CTS Deployment File
What other insights can these data reveal about Army deployments?
Deployments to OEF/OIF-3 Jul-09
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
Cumulative Troop-Years
Cumulative Total Army Deployment: Over 1 Million
Troop-Years To OIF/OEF
Note: Does Not Reflect
Services’ Support to Other
Missions and Activities
Deployments to OEF/OIF-4 Jul-09
Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008)
Cumulative Troop-Years
Army Generating Largest Share Of DoD Active
Duty OIF-OEF Troop Deployments …
52% of DoD
Active Duty
Deployments
Note: Does Not Reflect
Services’ Support to Other
Missions and Activities
19%
15%
15%
Deployments to OEF/OIF-5 Jul-09
*Percentages have been rounded up
Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008)
… In Total And As A Percentage Of FY2008 DoD
Active Duty Assigned Strength
Active Duty
800,000
600,000
52% of DoD
Active Duty
Deployments
Note: Does Not Reflect
Services’ Support to Other
Missions and Activities
39% of DoD
Active Duty
Strength
400,000
200,000
24%
23%
15%
USMC Deployments
15%
Navy Deployments
F Active Assigned Strength
*Percentages have been rounded up
y Active Assigned Strength
Army Deployments
0
USAF Deployments
14%
C Active Assigned Strength
19%
y Active Assigned Strength
Cumulative Troop-Years
1,000,000
Deployments to OEF/OIF-6 Jul-09
Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008)
Growth Of Deployed Pool Depends Upon Flow Of
Soldiers Into, Through, And Out Of Army
Soldiers That
Have Deployed
to OIF/OEF
New Recruits
In Training
Ending Time
Of Service
Theater Forces
Medical Corps
Air Defense
National Intel
Forces Assigned to
Other Missions
Deployments to OEF/OIF-7 Jul-09
Source: DMDC(2008)
Snapshot Of Army Troop Flows: CY2008
376,000
68% of
Active Duty
Soldiers That
Have Deployed
to OIF/OEF
New Recruits
117,000
21% of
Active Duty
In Training
Ending Time
Of Service
64,000
11% of
Active Duty
Forces Assigned to
Other Missions
Deployments to OEF/OIF-8 Jul-09
Source: DMDC(2008) and US Army HRC
Deployed Soldiers Have Highest Cumulative
Deployment Times …
(As Of June 2008)
25 - 37+ Months
61,000 Soldiers
1 - 12 Months
135,000 Soldiers
13 - 24 Months
167,000 Soldiers
Deployments to OEF/OIF-9 Jul-09
DMDC Data: June 2008
… And Soldier Numbers And Cumulative Deployed
Time Continues To Grow
(As Of December 2008)
25 - 41+ Months
79,000 Soldiers
1 - 12 Months
122,000 Soldiers
13 - 24 Months
174,000 Soldiers
Deployments to OEF/OIF-10 Jul-09
DMDC Data: December 2008
Bulk Of Deployment Burden Falls On Mid-Grade
Soldiers -- And Junior Soldiers Starting Out
Army
Marine Corps
Navy
Air Force
• Junior Soldiers are on their
way up the curve
• Army Warrants, E-5 to E-9,
and O-3 and O-4 highest
cumulative time
– across all services and
pay grades
• May take time to deploy
pool of senior NCOs and
Officers
Deployments to OEF/OIF-11 Jul-09
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
Army Is Also Relatively Efficient In Providing Forces
(FY08 OSD Estimate)
350
71%
300
Forces
Infrastructure
Troops (K)
250
200
150
56%
55%
29%
45%
44%
68%
100
32%
50
0
Army
Navy
Marine Corps
Air Force
Deployments to OEF/OIF-12 Jul-09
Source: Defense Manpower Requirements Report, FY2009, ODUSD(PI)(RQ)
Who Are Soldiers That Have “Not Yet” Deployed?
Three Or More
13.3%
(74,000)
• Starting Point: DMDC numbers for
Not yet
32.7%
(182,000)
Twice
20.6%
(115,000)
“Active Duty” Army Deployments to
OEF/OIF
• We will focus on “Not yet” category
– Represents roughly 1/3 of Active
Duty Force
Once
33.5%
(187,000)
Deployments to OEF/OIF-13 Jul-09
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
New Soldiers Make Up Majority of
“Not Yet” Deployed
• 117,000 Soldiers average 2 or
less years in Army
– 87K Average 1 year
8+ yrs
12.6%
(22,900)
4 - 7 yrs
11.6%
(21,000)
– 30K Average 2 years
– Nearly all appear to be in IET,
or preparing with unit for
first deployment
1 yrs
47.9%
(87,000)
3 yrs
11.2%
(20,300)
– Some actually deployed to
Korea, Europe, etc.
– Includes USMA cadets
• 64,000 Soldiers average 3 or
more years
2 yrs
16.8%
(30,400)
– 9000 of them deployed to
Korea, Europe, etc
– Less than 10% of force in
CONUS and trained, but “not
yet” deployed (55,000
Soldiers)
Deployments to OEF/OIF-14 Jul-09
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
Remaining Soldiers Supporting Other
Missions Or Preparing To Deploy
Exemplar MOSs
Korea,
Overseas
9,000
Military
Occupational
Specialty
Medical/
Health
CONUS
Not Yet
Deployed
10,519
Intelligence/
Networks
5815
Air Defense
1921
Recruiting
2289
= 20,544 Soldiers
Deployments to OEF/OIF-15 Jul-09
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
May Take Time To Rotate Some Soldier Specialties Into
Deploying Units
Exemplar MOSs
Military
Occupational
Specialty
Medical/
Health
CONUS
Not Yet
Deployed
Deployed
Peers
10,519
23904
Intelligence/
Networks
5815
36155
Air Defense
1921
4134
Recruiting
2289
N/A
20,544 Soldiers
Deployments
to (Dec
OEF/OIF-16
Source:
DMDC
2008) Jul-09
Summary
• Our assessment of CY 2008 Army concludes that:
–
–
–
–
68% have deployed to OIF/OEF – have large cumulative deployed time
21% are new to Army – still training, integrating, or preparing to deploy
1.5% are deployed to other overseas locations
[At least] 3.5% are in jobs key to current global military operations
• Total: 94% [or more] appear to be where needed to support
priority national missions and activities
• Therefore: Army is close to providing maximum Soldier flow
– More detailed analysis required to assess remaining 6%
• Includes a diverse mix of USMA students, special, “rebalanced”,
injured, other, etc
• At any given time, will always be some Soldiers who have not
deployed YET
– Large number of Soldiers entering Army each year need time to train
– Experienced Soldiers needed to generate deploying forces
– Some MOSs critical for other Army-assigned missions
Deployments to OEF/OIF-17 Jul-09
Soldiers Committed To OIF/OEF
Soldiers
250,000
Army National Guard
Army Reserve
Army Active Duty
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
SEP MAR SEP MAR SEP MAR SEP MAR SEP MAR SEP MAR SEP MAR SEP MAR
2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009
Source: DMDC
Deployments to OEF/OIF-18 Jul-09
Soldiers
Source: DMDC
Deployments to OEF/OIF-19 Jul-09