Transcript Energy Assurance Gil Weigand Strategic Programs Computing and Computational Sciences Directorate

Energy Assurance
Gil Weigand
Strategic Programs
Computing and Computational Sciences Directorate
December 10, 2007
U.S. Energy Production, Distribution and
Consumption System is Complex
• Today the system is tightly balanced between supply and demand
• Disruptions impact economy, jobs, & U.S. competitiveness, and may
lead to a recession
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Energy and Efficiency, U.S. Energy
Flows 2002 (UCRL-TR-129990-02) https://eed.llnl.gov/flow/02flow.php
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Avoidance of Costly Energy
Disruptions = Energy Assurance
Energy Assurance is:
The ability to obtain, without costly disruption, the energy
required by the United States in assured, economically
viable ways to satisfy residential, commercial, and
transportation requirements.
Disruptions to the Energy We Need Are Inevitable.
You Cannot Eliminate Disruptions!
You Can, However, Make Their Impact Small.
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Energy Assurance
Energy Assurance
Has Three Critical
Parts
Energy Assurance Is Also A
Complex Relationship Among
Four Security Themes
Energy Assurance
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Energy
Security
Environmental
Security
Energy
Production
Economic
Security
Distribution
National
Security
Consumption
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Not All Elements Within These
Security Themes Are Under U.S.
Control
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Energy Security
Environmental
Security
Economic Security
National Security
Energy Assurance
Within
U.S.
Control
Out of
U.S.
Control
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Prevailing Conditions Today
 U.S. Energy Supply vs. Demand is very “tightly wound” and
increasingly lacks the flexibility necessary to cope with
inevitable disruptions and competition for supply
 Environmental Security increasingly becoming a factor in
energy consumption
 All major candidates for President have stated the
importance of a more independent energy supply and more
efficient consumption and distribution of energy for the
United States
 The threats to Energy Assurance for the United States are
increasing and are increasingly outside of U.S. control
 Economic Growth and Energy Assurance are tightly linked
 Cyber-based systems are perceived by the public as having
a poor record for security and the protection of private
information
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Why An Energy Assurance
Technology-Based Effort Now?
 The U.S. Public is Poised to Demand Energy Assurance
 Technology-Based Solutions Are the Most Viable Option for
the Central Focus for Achieving Energy Assurance in the
Near Term
 They offer the best opportunity to balance Energy, National,
Economic, and Environmental Security
 They depend upon the existence of a strong U.S. science and
technology program
 They are completely in U.S. control
 They engage a wide and diverse science, technology and
production workforce
 They address all energy sectors
 They address production, distribution, and consumption
 They fuel renewed growth and entrepreneurship
 They are enabling; not defensive
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There is no “Silver Bullet”
The U.S. Energy
System is Very
Tightly Balanced
Between Supply
and Demand
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Harmful
Disruptions
(status-quo)
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Fortunately Small Changes Have an
Impact on Energy Assurance
recursive
Exa-Scale Will
Introduce
Systems Level
Modeling
Energy Assurance
A Small
Change Will
Have a Big
Impact
The U.S. Energy
System is Very
Tightly Balanced
Between Supply
and Demand
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Energy Assurance:
Path Forward for High Impact
Industry Will Deliver the Broad Solutions
Solutions, Jobs, $$
IPO
Companies
Demonstration
s
Investment
Capital Model
Dream-Team
Model
(VCs drive business to
IPO)
Fix the Legacy
Create the New
Solutions, Jobs, $$
(Industry leads
partnership)
Science, Technology, and Innovation
Exa-Scale Computing by 2015 and 20 by 20
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Achieving Energy Assurance
-- Bet on a Science, Technology, and Innovation --
 The successful strategy requires a prolific S&T
activity targeting all energy sectors to drive
innovation and technology-based solutions
 The successful strategy uses computer
technology to drive an aggressive pace—2
decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance
 The successful strategy employs high
dependence on cyber-based control and
information systems
 The successful strategy links the S&T activity
with industry to drive energy assurance whether
production-, distribution-, or consumption-based
solutions into the marketplace
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Success Model for S&T Focus for Energy
The Essential Three Parts Are:
Modeling and
Computer Systems
Science and
Technology
Cyber Secure
Information
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The successful strategy uses computer
technology to drive an aggressive pace—2
decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance
 103 simulation & computer capability advancement =
innovation cycle (3 to 4 years)
 Provide S&T budget stability suitable to support recursive
cycle of innovation
 106 simulation & computer capability advancement =
systems engineering development cycle (8 to 9 years)
 Provide Demonstration and Deployment budget suitable to
support recursive cycle of systems engineering
development
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The successful strategy employs high
dependence on cyber-based control and
information systems
 Perfectly secure system is not achievable
 Augment traditional device- and filtering- based
protection methods with aggressive use of realtime threat detection
 Systems have built in capability advancement
 Learning
 Knowledge discovery
 Threat isolation
 Performance / Speed / Scope
 Systems have built in capability to capture increased
knowledge and understanding
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Physical Science and Technology
Disciplines to Target for Innovation
Opportunities
Geosciences/Climate
Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Combustion
Energy Storage
Nanoscience
Superconductivity
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Science and Technology
Bioenergy
Modeling and
Computer Systems
Cyber Secure
Information
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Science and Technology Drivers in
Key Science Domains
Science Domains
Science and Technology Driver
Accelerator Physics
Optimize a new low-loss cavity design for the ILC
Astrophysics
Explosion mechanism of core-collapse supernovae and Type Ia supernovae
Biology
Can efficient ethanol production offset the current oil and gasoline crisis?
Chemistry
Catalytic transformation of hydrocarbons; clean energy & hydrogen production and
storage
Climate
Predict future climates based on scenarios of anthropogenic emissions
Combustion
Developing cleaner-burning, more efficient devices for combustion.
Fusion
Plasma turbulent fluctuations in ITER must be understood and controlled
High Energy Physics
Find the Higgs particles thought to be responsible for mass, and find evidence of
supersymmetry
Nanoscience &
Superconductivity
Designing high temperature superconductors, magnetic nanoparticles for ultra high
density storage
Nuclear Energy
Can all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle be designed virtually? Reactor core, radiochemical separations reprocessing, fuel rod performance, repository
Nuclear Physics
How are we going to describe nuclei whose fundamental properties we cannot
measure?
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Modeling and Computer Systems
Disciplines to Target for Innovation
Opportunities
PetaOps Computers &
ExaOps Architectures
Zoning and Problem Setup
106 Processor Algorithms
Parallel Graphics and
Display of Results
Pathforward Engineering
Numerical Mathematics
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Modeling and
Computer Systems
Simulation Tools
Cyber Secure
Information
Science and
Technology
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Cyber Secure Information Disciplines to
Target for Innovation Opportunities
Data Integrity
Knowledge Discovery
Graphs, Statistics, and
Linear Programming
Real-Time Algorithms for
Learning & Detection
Simulators
Data Analysis
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Cyber Secure Information
Authentication, Authorization,
and Accounting
Science and
Technology
Modeling and
Computer Systems
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Goal of This S&T
 Apply novel S&T investigation simultaneously
among
 Physical R&D in areas (e.g., Transportation,
Renewables, or Nuclear Energy),
 High Performance Computing and Modeling, and
 Cyber Secure Information
to develop new or accelerate significantly recent
technology advances with direct and near term
application to Energy Assurance
 The S&T will treat these three central focuses as a
whole versus the traditional independence
 This approach is novel and will drive towards technology
options that have a physical and virtual representation with
cyber secure information as an integral element.
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Energy Assurance Timeline
High
20
years
 2010-2019 – 1st decade
Create Science Base for
Sustained, Decade-Long
Technology Demonstration and
Deployment In All Energy
Sectors
Demonstrate Technical
Feasibility of Reaching Energy
Assurance for US by 2029
10 years
1/3-way Based on Early
Technology Innovation,
Demonstration, and Deployment
Low
Flexibility / Resilience
Energy Assurance
Assessment
Today
Low
 2020-2029 – 2nd decade
High
Security / Independence
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Technology Demonstrations and
Deployments
Achieve Energy Assurance
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