Transcript ERCOT Annual Validation Suspension Analysis Update to RMS Carl Raish ERCOT Load Profiling

ERCOT Annual Validation Suspension Analysis
Update to RMS
Carl Raish
ERCOT Load Profiling
October 12, 2005
Test Data Aggregation Runs
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Objective: Quantify the settlement impact associated with 2005
Annual Validation Residential Profile Assignment Changes
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Lodestar iTest environment set up and refreshed as of
07/30/2005
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Sample of 30 days selected between October 2004 – April 2005
 Stratified by differences between RESHIWR and RESLOWR profiles
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Base-line data aggregations have been run for all 30 days
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Profile IDs have been updated to reflect Annual Validation
changes
 578,000 Residential Assignment changes
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Data Aggregation has been re-run to capture the affect of the
assignment changes
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Next steps
 Compare before and after results to estimate differences attributable
to AV 2005
 Primary metrics will be UFE and Load Ratio Share
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Residential Survey Update
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Objective is to quantify the accuracy of the 2005 Annual Validation
Residential Profile Assignment Changes
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Build an accurate algorithm to predict presence and use of electric space
heating based on the survey responses in conjunction with each
responder’s usage history in
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Apply the algorithm to each of the ESIIDs with Profile Assignment
changes
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Determine the percent of changes which are correct
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RESHIWR with electric heat
RESLOWR without electric heat
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If the majority of changes are correct then AV 2005 is improving Profile
Assignment Accuracy
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Survey status
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41,000 surveys were mailed on August 30 (plus Pilot Survey)
Returns have been received and processed
Response rate is 11.4% (4,669 returns) as of 09/30/2005
Data entry is complete and response data has been provided in electronic form by the Market
Research firm
Next steps
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Response validation is underway
Statistical Assignment Algorithm development
Apply algorithm to all ESIIDS with Profile Assignment Changes and determine accuracy
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Conclusion

Analysis findings will be presented to PWG in
October

Findings and a PWG recommendation to either
suspend or continue with AV 2005 transactions
will be presented to RMS in November

RMS recommendation to TAC and the Board in
December

Note: based on the Board motion, submission of
transactions will commence December 31, 2005 ...
Suspension of AV 2005 will require approval of a
motion
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Questions?
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