Transcript Africa issues of population and food supply Dr Kenny Lynch

Africa - an investigation into
issues of population and
food supply
Dr Kenny Lynch
food security is …
“when all people, at all times, have
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious
food to meet their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life”
food security is …
“when all people, at all times, have
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious
food to meet their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life”
World Food Summit Target:
To halve the number of undernourished
people by no later than 2015
That means reducing the number of
undernourished to 412 million
Millennium
Development
Goal No. 1
Target 1. Between 1990 and
2015 halve the proportion of
people whose income is
less than $1 a day
Target 2. Between 1990
and 2015, halve the
proportion of people
who suffer from
hunger
Comparison MDG T2/WFST
WFST (1996)
• Halve the
number of
undernourished
• by 2015
• = 412 million
MDG T2 (2000)
• Halve the
proportion
• by 2015
• = 585 million
Activity 2
• What proportion of the world’s
population is undernourished now?
• What proportion of Africa’s
population is undernourished?
• All stand …
Source: SOFI, 2006
Changes in measures of
malnourished in LEDCs
Period
Change
(millions)
Change (%)
1970s
- 37
9%
1980s
- 100
8%
Early 90s
- 26
Late 90s
+23
} 3%
Source: SOFI, 2006
Source: SOFI, 2006
http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/
“The region is off track to
meet every Millennium
Development Goal … Without
sustained support, SubSaharan Africa is unlikely to
meet any of the Goals. ”
Millennium Project Final Report (2005)
Earthrise,
Apollo 8 photo
22nd December 1968
Source: NASA
Malthus on
Food & Population
100
deficit
80
60
Food
Population
40
20
0
surplus
Thomas Robert Malthus (1798)
An Essay on the Principle of
Population
Or a View of Its Past and Present Effects on Human
Happiness; with an Inquiry Into Our Prospects Respecting the
Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils which It Occasions
• Population increases
geometrically
• Food production increases
arithmetically
• Leads to food deficit
• Balance is restored by
population ‘checks’ such as
disease, conflict
Esther Boserup (1965)
The condition of Agricultural Growth;
The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population
Pressure
• Population increases lead to population
pressure
• Which leads to …
• Increases in productivity through
intensification and innovation
• Increased population could mean
increased labour leading to increased
productivity
Food insecurity is …
• temporary, localised food shortages
• protracted and large-scale famine.
• Chronic, widespread poverty means
millions of people are permanently
vulnerable to famine
Food Production Headline Trends
• Food
production
has more
than doubled
since 1960
• Food
production
per capita
has grown
• Food prices
have fallen
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Subsistence Cultivation
 > 50% of world population engaged in
subsistence agriculture
 mainly remote areas
 Self-sufficiency
 Production for exchange is minimal
 Extensive - Pastoralism, shifting cultivation
 Intensive - small scale sedentary agriculture
 exclusively subsistence nature breaking
down
Subsistence Cultivation
Peasant Production
 Small-scale
 Labour-intensive
 Production for exchange
 Mostly family labour
 Wealth flows: child-to-parent
Source: FAO, 1996
Case Study 1
• Musa, Tanzanian farmer
• Recently gave up cotton farming to grow
tomatoes
• Delighted with the performance of some
new seeds he bought for last season
• Optimistic about his future as a tomato
farmer
• But: we discovered during the discussion
that his seeds were ‘suicide seeds’ …
Case Study 2
• Lamin, Gambian farmer
• Peasant producer in village near River
Gambia
• Keen to develop his horticultural
production business
• Concerned that villagers moving away
because of the attractions of
employment in tourism on the coast
• Leading to rural labour shortages: ‘If
we had more people in the
countryside, we could produce more
food.’
Case Study 3
• Mustapha, farmer in Kano, Nigeria
• He grows small quantities of
maize, tomatoes and peppers for
the market
• The price he receives varies
according to the economy
• The strength of the economy
depends largely on the global oil
price and the performance of the
Nigerian economy
Conclusions
• Nether MDG Target 2 (on food) nor WFS
Target on track (esp. not in Africa)
• Malthus-Boserup debate continues
• Complexity of systems
• Africa has potential – access to markets,
irrigation, labour, inputs, credit, infrastructure
• Key to this is market (domestic and global)
• 2008 special year, but highlights problems
and solutions
But …
• Poorest are vulnerable to globalisation
• Consumer behaviour in West affects
farmers in LEDCs
• Impact of current economic crisis “credit crunch” and energy prices
To learn more …
www.foodfirst.org
www.fao.org
www.ifpri.org
www.millenniumecosystem.org
www.dfid.gov.uk/mdg/
IFPRI Report 2008
• biofuel production
accounts for about
30% of grain price
increases 2000-7
• Existence of food
stocks would help
reduce volatility
“People living on less than US$2 a day
have cut out health and education and
sold or eaten their livestock.
Those living on less than US$1 a day
have cut out protein and vegetables from
their diet.
Those living on less than US$0.50 a day
have cut out whole meals, and sometimes
go days without meals.
Josette Sheeran, WFP
Policy Responses
•
•
•
•
•
•
Seeds
Fertilise
Financial Services
Infrastructure
Subsidies
Markets
Food price trends 2008
• Appear to have peaked
• But still much higher
than previous years
• High cost of oil leads to
increased transport,
inputs and so food will
remain higher
• Predicted increases in
food production
• Solution in Africa is
increased domestic food
production