Transcript Revising FDA’s “Statistical Guidance on Reporting Results from Studies Evaluating Diagnostic Tests”

Revising FDA’s “Statistical
Guidance on Reporting Results
from Studies Evaluating
Diagnostic Tests”
FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop
September 28-29, 2006
Kristen Meier, Ph.D.
Mathematical Statistician, Division of Biostatistics
Office of Surveillance and Biometrics
Center for Devices and Radiological Health, FDA
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Outline
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Background of guidance development
Overview of comments
STARD Initiative and definitions
Choice of comparative benchmark and implications
Agreement measures – pitfalls
Bias
Estimating performance without a “perfect”
[reference] standard - latest research
• Reporting recommendations
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Background
• Motivated by CDC concerns with IVDs for sexually
transmitted diseases
• Joint meeting of four FDA device panels (2/11/98):
Hematology/Pathology, Clinical Chemistry/Toxicology,
Microbiology and Immunology
• Provide recommendations on “appropriate data collection,
analysis, and resolution of discrepant results, using sound
scientific and statistical analysis to support indications for use
of in vitro diagnostic devices when the new device is
compared to another device, a recognized reference method or
‘gold standard,’ or other procedures not commonly used,
and/or clinical criteria for diagnosis”
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Statistical Guidance Developed
“Statistical Guidance on Reporting Results from Studies
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests: Draft Guidance for
Industry and FDA Reviewers”
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issued in Mar. 12, 2003 with a 90-day comment period
http://www.fda.gov/cdrh/osb/guidance/1428.html
for all diagnostic products not just in vitro diagnostics
only addresses diagnostic devices with 2 possible
outcomes (positive/negative)
• does not address design and monitoring of clinical
studies for diagnostic devices
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Dichotomous Diagnostic Test
Performance
New
Test
Study Population
TRUTH
Truth+
Truth
Test+
TP (true+)
FP (false+)
Test
FN (false ) TN (true)
estimate:
sensitivity (sens) = Pr(Test+|Truth+)  100%×TP/(TP+FN)
specificity (spec) = Pr(Test|Truth)  100%×TN/(FP+TN)
“Perfect” test: sens=spec=100% (FP=FN=0)
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Example Data: 220 Subjects
TRUTH
New +
Test 
total
+ 
44
1
7 168
51 169
Unbiased Estimates
Sens 86.3% (44/51)
Spec
99.4% (168/169)
Imperfect
Standard
+

New + 40
5
Test 
4 171
total
44 176
Biased* Estimates
90.9% (40/44)
97.2% (171/176)
* Misclassification bias (see Begg 1987)
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Recalculation of Performance Using
“Discrepant Resolution”
STAGE 1 – retest discordants
using a “resolver” test
Imperfect Standard
+

STAGE 2 – revise 2x2*
based on resolver result
Resolver/imperfect std.
“+”
“”
New + 40
5 (5+, 0)
Test 
4 (1+, 3) 171
New +
Test 
45
1
0
174
total
total
46
174
44
176
“sens” 90.9% (40/44)
“spec”
97.2% (171/176)
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
97.8% (45/46)
100% (174/174)
*assumes concordant=“correct”
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Topics for Guidance
Realization:
• Problems are much larger than “discrepant
resolution”
• 2x2 is an oversimplification, but still useful to start
Provide guidance:
• What constitutes “truth”?
• What to do if we don’t know truth?
• What name do we give performance measures when
we don’t have truth?
• Describing study design: how were subjects,
specimens, measurements, labs collected/chosen?
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Comments on Guidance
FDA received comments from 11 individuals/organizations:
• provide guidance on what constitutes “perfect standard”
– remove “perfect/imperfect standard” concept and include and define
“reference/non-reference standard” concept (STARD)
• reference and use STARD concepts
• provide approach for indeterminate, inconclusive, equivocal,
etc… results
– minimal recommendations
• discuss methods for estimating sens and spec when a perfect
[reference] standard is not used
– cite new literature
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include more discussion on bias, including verification bias
– some discussion added, add more references
• add glossary
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STARD Initiative
STAndards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy
Initiative
• effort by international working group to improve
quality of reporting of studies of diagnostic
accuracy
• checklist of 25 items to include when reporting
results
• provide definitions for terminology
• http://www.consortstatement.org/stardstatement.htm
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STARD Definitions Adopted
Purpose of a qualitative diagnostic test is to determine
whether a target condition is present or absent in a
subject from the intended use population
• Target condition (condition of interest) – can refer
to a particular disease , a disease stage, health status,
or any other identifiable condition within a patient,
such as staging a disease already known to be
present, or a health condition that should prompt
clinical action, such as the initiation, modification
or termination of treatment
• Intended use population (target population) – those
subjects/patients for whom the test is intended to be
used
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Reference Standard (STARD)
Move away from notion of a fixed, theoretical “Truth”
• “considered to be the best available method for
establishing the presence or absence of the target
condition…it can be a single test or method, or a
combination of methods and techniques, including
clinical follow-up”
• dichotomous - divides the intended use population
into condition present or absent
• does not consider outcome of new test under
evaluation
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Reference Standard (FDA)
What constitutes “best available method”/reference method?
• opinion and practice within the medical, laboratory and
regulatory community
• several possible methods could be considered
• maybe no consensus reference standard exists
• maybe reference standard exists but for non-negligible % or
intended use population, the reference standard is known to
be in error
FDA ADVICE:
• consult with FDA on choice of reference standard before
beginning your study
• performance measures must be interpreted in context: report
reference standard along with performance measures
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Benchmarks for Assessing
Diagnostic Performance
NEW: FDA recognizes 2 major categories of benchmarks
• reference standard (STARD)
• non-reference standard (a method or predicate other than a
reference standard; 510(k) regulations)
OLD: “perfect standard” and “imperfect standard”, “gold
standard” – concepts and terms deleted
Choice of comparative method determines which performance
measures can be reported
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Comparison with Benchmark
• If a reference standard is available: use it
• If a reference standard is available, but impractical:
use it to the extent possible
• If a reference standard is not available or
unacceptable for your situation: consider
constructing one
• If a reference standard is not available and cannot
be constructed, use a non-reference standard and
report agreement
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Naming Performance Measures:
Depends on Benchmarks
Terminology is important – help ensure correct interpretation
Reference standard (STARD)
• a lot of literature on studies of diagnostic accuracy (Pepe
2003, Zhou et al. 2002)
• report sensitivity, specificity (and corresponding CIs),
predictive values of positive and negative results
Non-reference standard (due to 510(k) regulations)
• report positive percent agreement and negative percent
agreement
• NEW: include corresponding CIs (consider score CIs)
• interpret with care – many pitfalls!
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Agreement
New
Test
Study Population
Non-Reference Standard
+

Test+
a
b
Test
c
d
Positive percent agreement (new/non ref. std.) =100%×a/(a+c)
Negative percent agreement (new/non ref. std.)=100%×d/(b+d)
[overall percent agreement=100%×(a+d)/(a+b+c+d)]
“Perfect” new test: PPA≠100% and NPA≠100%
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Pitfalls of Agreement
• agreement as defined here is not symmetric:
calculation is different depending on which
marginal total you use for the denominator
• overall percent agreement is symmetric, but can be
misleading (very different 2x2 data can give the
same overall agreement
• agreement ≠ “correct”
• overall agreement, PPA and NPA can change
(possibly a lot) depending the prevalence (relative
frequency of target condition in intended use
population)
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Overall Agreement Misleading
New +
Test 
total
Non-Ref
Standard
+ 
40
1
19 512
59 513
Non-Ref
Standard
+

New + 40 19
Test 
1 512
total
41 531
overall agreement = 96.5% ((40+512)/572))
PPA = 67.8% (40/59)
NPA = 99.8% (512/513)
PPA = 97.6% (40/41)
NPA = 96.4% (512/531)
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Agreement ≠ Correct
Original data: Non-Reference Standard
+

New +
40
5
Test 
4
171
Stratify data above by Reference Standard outcome
Reference Std +
Reference Std 
Non-Ref Std
Non-Ref Std
+ 
+

New + 39
5
New + 1
0
Test 
1
6
Test  3 165
tests agree and are wrong for 6+1 = 7 subjects
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Bias
Unknown and non-quantified uncertainty
• Often existence, size (magnitude), and
direction of bias cannot be determined
• Increasing overall number of subjects reduces
statistical uncertainty (confidence interval
widths) but may do nothing to reduce bias
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Some Types of Bias
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error in reference standard
use test under evaluation to establish diagnosis
spectrum bias – do not choose the “right” subjects”
verification bias – only a non-representative subset
of subjects evaluated by reference standard, no
statistical adjustments made to estimates
• many other types of bias
See Begg (1987), Pepe (2003), Zhou et al. (2002)
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Estimating Sens and Spec Without a
Reference Standard
• Model-based approaches: latent class models and
Bayesian models. See Pepe (2003), and Zhou et al.
(2002)
• Albert and Dodd (2004)
– incorrect model leads to biased sens and spec estimates
– different models can fit data equally well, yet produce
very different estimates of sens and spec
• FDA concerns & recommendations:
– difficult to verify that model and assumptions are correct
– try a range of models and assumptions and report range
of results
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Reference Standard Outcomes
on a Subset
• Albert and Dodd (2006, under review)
– use info from verified and non-verified subjects
– choosing between competing models is easier
– explore subset choice (random, test dependent)
• Albert (2006, under review)
– estimation via imputation
– study design implications (Albert, 2006)
• Kondratovich (2003; 2002-Mar-8 FDA
Microbiology Devices Panel Meeting)
– estimation via imputation
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Practices to Avoid
• using terms “sensitivity” and “specificity” if
reference standard is not used
• discarding equivocal results in data
presentations and calculations
• using data altered or updated by discrepant
resolution
• using the new test as part of the comparative
benchmark
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External validity
A study has high external validity if the study
results are sufficiently reflective of the “real
world” performance of the device in the
intended use population
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External validity
FDA recommends
• include appropriate subjects and/or specimens
• use final version of the device according to the final
instructions for use
• use several of these devices in your study
• include multiple users with relevant training and
range of expertise
• cover a range of expected use and operating
conditions
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Reporting Recommendations
• CRITICAL - need sufficient detail to be able
to assess potential bias and external validity
• just as (more?) important as computing CI’s
correctly
• see guidance for specific recommendations
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References
Albert, P. S. (2006). Imputation approaches for estimating diagnostic
accuracy for multiple tests from partially verified designs. Technical
Report 042, Biometric Research Branch, Division of Cancer Treatment
and Diagnosis, National Cancer Institute
(http://linus.nci.nih.gov/~brb/TechReport.htm).
Albert, P.S., & Dodd, L.E. (2004). A cautionary note on the robustness of
latent class models for estimating diagnostic error without a gold
standard. Biometrics, 60, 427–435.
Albert, P. S. and Dodd, L. E. (2006). On estimating diagnostic accuracy
with multiple raters and partial gold standard evaluation. Technical
Report 041, Biometric Research Branch, Division of Cancer Treatment
and Diagnosis, National Cancer Institute
(http://linus.nci.nih.gov/~brb/TechReport.htm).
Begg, C.G. Biases in the assessment of diagnostic tests. Statistics in
Medicine 1987;6:411-423.
Bossuyt, P.M., Reitsma, J.B., Bruns, D.E., Gatsonis, C.A., Glasziou, P.P.,
Irwig, L.M., Lijmer, J.G., Moher, D., Rennie, D., & deVet, H.C.W.
(2003). Towards complete and accurate reporting of studies of diagnostic
accuracy: The STARD initiative. Clinical Chemistry, 49(1), 1–6. (Also
appears in Annals of Internal Medicine (2003) 138(1), W1–12 and in29
British Medical Journal (2003) 329(7379), 41–44)
References (continued)
Bossuyt, P.M., Reitsma, J.B., Bruns, D.E., Gatsonis, C.A., Glasziou,
P.P., Irwig, L.M., Moher, D., Rennie, D., deVet, H.C.W., & Lijmer,
J.G. (2003). The STARD statement for reporting studies of
diagnostic accuracy: Explanation and elaboration. Clinical
Chemistry, 49(1), 7–18. (Also appears in Annals of Internal
Medicine (2003) 138(1), W1–12 and in British Medical Journal
(2003) 329(7379), 41–44)
Lang, Thomas A. and Secic, Michelle. How to Report Statistics in
Medicine. Philadelphia: American College of Physicians, 1997.
Kondratovich, Marina (2003). Verification bias in the evaluation of
diagnostic devices. Proceedings of the 2003 Joint Statistical
Meetings, Biopharmaceutical Section, San Francisco, CA.
Pepe, M. S. (2003). The statistical evaluation of medical tests for
classification and prediction. New York: Oxford University Press.
Zhou, X. H., Obuchowski, N. A., & McClish, D. K. (2002).
Statistical methods in diagnostic medicine. New York: John Wiley
& Sons.
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