Transcript Risk and Opportunity Management A Formal Process for use by Teams ∫

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Boeing Applied
Photonics
Risk and Opportunity Management
A Formal Process for use by Teams
Thomas L. Weaver
Boeing Phantom Works
St. Louis, Missouri
314-233-0305
[email protected]
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Definition of the Nouns
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
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Definition of the Process
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Photonics
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Descriptions of Plans
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Photonics
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Risk Handling Approach
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
• Risk a function of:
– Likelihood of Failure
– Consequences of Failure
• Easily diagrammed on a 2-D Chart
O
High
Moderate
Low
Likelihood
5
4
O- Original
X - Current
T - Target
3
X
2
T
1
1
2
3
4
5
Consequence
Example above is of a risk that has been largely mitigated
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Risk Likelihoods
Level
Characteristics
0
Boeing Applied
Photonics
Complexity
5
Near Certainty
Planned approach and processes cannot
mitigate this type of risk; no known processes
or workarounds are available
Extremely complex
4
Highly Likely
Planned approach and processes may mitigate
this risk, but a different approach might
Significant increase
in complexity
3
Likely
Planned approach and processes may mitigate
this risk, but workarounds will be required
Moderate increase
in complexity
2
Low
Likelihood
Planned approach and processes have usually
mitigated this type of risk with minimal
oversight in similar cases
Minor increase in
complexity
1
Not Likely
Planned approach and processes will effectively
avoid or mitigate this risk based on standard
practices
Simple design
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Risk Consequences
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
Consequences come in three types: Technical, Schedule, and Cost
Level
1
Minimal
Technical
Minimal
or no
impact
Schedule
Cost
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2
Minor
3
Moderate
4
Significant
5
Severe
Minor
performance
shortfall, same
approach
retained
Moderate
performance
shortfall, but
workarounds
available
Unacceptable,
but
workarounds
available
Unacceptable;
no
alternatives
exist
Minimal
or no
impact
Additional
activities
required; able
to meet key
dates
Minor
Program
schedule slip; critical path
will miss need affected
date
Cannot
achieve key
program
milestone
Minimal
or no
impact
Budget increase
or unit
production cost
increase <1%
Budget
increase or
unit
production
cost increase
<5%
Budget
increase or
unit
production
cost increase
>10%
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Budget
increase or
unit
production
cost increase
<10%
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Risk Example
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
Optical Linear Position Sensor
Description: The optical position sensor concept has a serial optical
position track on the ram shaft. This exposes the optic code and read head
to contamination, and the serial track is sensitive to backlash.
Risk Source: Technical
Likelihood Rationale: The actuator is exposed to water, ice, oily fluids,
sand, and dust. Backlash could cause the shaft direction of motion to not
match the commanded motion, making a misread of the digital position.
Consequence Rationale: The linear sensor could be placed in a sealed
case and mechanically connected to the actuator, adding weight and
volume. Additional track might solve the backlash problem, but reducing
the optical power.
Risk Handling Strategy: At the request of the customer, the supplier will
be given the opportunity to develop the sensor with the code on the metal
shaft. If all mitigation plans for the various risks involved fail, the sensor
development contract will be recompeted for a traditional sensor with a
code plate in a protected environment.
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Plan A, Page 1
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
Description: The optical position sensor concept has a serial optical position
track on the ram shaft. This exposes the optic code and read head to
contamination, and the serial track is sensitive to backlash.
Likelihood Rationale: The actuator is exposed to water, ice, oily fluids, sand,
and dust. Backlash could cause the shaft direction of motion to not match the
commanded motion, making a misread of the digital position.
Consequence Rationale: The linear sensor could be placed in a sealed case and
mechanically connected to the actuator, adding weight and volume. Additional
track might solve the backlash problem, but reducing the optical power.
Evaluation Phase Sensor failed to perform on EMA.
Alternative designs using traditional code plates in protected locations
R
have been proposed.
Initial Plan Risk Level
1=Establish sensor power
budget. Obtain sample shaft
material, form code on shaft, and
test code for reflectance and
contrast ratio.-CM
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3
4
5
Plan: Current
Code-on-Shaft - Baseline Plan A
Date
Schd.
2
Consequence
Type (based on source of risk) High
O- Original Moderate
Technical
X - Current
Low
Mitigation Plan Status:
Action/Event
X
O
Likelihood
Visibility
5
Site
4
Program
3
Platform
Integration Team 2
Local
1
Phase
Archived
1
Open
ECD
N/A
7/10/08 7/10/08
Act.
Success Criteria
N/A
Reflectance and contrast ratio
with expected readhead
performance allow sufficient
power to reach detector for
clear reading of sensor with
TBD accuracy.
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Risk Level if
Successful
L
C
5
4T
4
4T
Suc.
Comments
If unsuccessful, fall back to code plate
technology already demonstrated on
tactical aircraft. Note, if successful,
consequence of failure of subsequent
step is use of regular code plate in a
housing, which has a size and weight
impact and so a consequence of 5.
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Plan A, Page 2
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
Code-on-Shaft - Baseline Plan A
Date
Action/Event
Schd.
ECD
Act.
Success Criteria
Risk Level if
Successful
Suc.
Comments
L
C
Measured reflectance and
contrast ratio with
contamination and with
expected readhead
performance allow sufficient
power to reach detector for
clear reading of sensor with
TBD accuracy.
4
3T
If unsuccessful, fall back to code plate
technology already demonstrated on
tactical aircraft. Note if successful,
consequence of failure of subsequent
step is to re-work the optics. Size and
weight impact is small, so the
consequence of failure becomes 4.
3=Analyze backlash and
10/30/08 10/30/08
stiffness of the actuator,
compare with sensor bit size and
determine if backlash will be a
problem.-DP
Either the backlash is less
than a sensor bit size, or the
actuator stiffness is sufficient
to prevent buffeting from
moving the shaft through the
backlash counter to the
commanded motion.
3
3T
If unsuccessful, go to mitigation plan B.
4=Develop readhead and test
with code for reflectance and
contrast ratio.-CM
Reflectance and contrast ratio
with contamination and
prototype readhead allow
sufficient power to reach
detector for clear reading of
sensor position.
2
3T
If unsuccessful, redesign the readhead.
2=Test code for reflectance and
contrast ratio in presence of
water, ice, oil, and sand and dust
with oil.-DP
8/15/08 8/15/08
3/31/09 3/31/09
Suppose the outcome of Event 3 is not successful
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Plan B
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
Description: The optical position sensor concept has a serial optical position
track on the ram shaft. This exposes the optic code and read head to
contamination, and the serial track is sensitive to backlash.
Likelihood Rationale: The actuator is exposed to water, ice, oily fluids, sand,
and dust. Backlash could cause the shaft direction of motion to not match the
commanded motion, making a misread of the digital position.
Consequence Rationale: The linear sensor could be placed in a sealed case and
mechanically connected to the actuator, adding weight and volume. Additional
track might solve the backlash problem, but reducing the optical power.
Evaluation Phase Sensor failed to perform on EMA.
Alternative designs using traditional code plates in protected locations
R
have been proposed.
Initial Plan Risk Level
Schd.
ECD
N/A
Act.
Success Criteria
N/A
3
4
5
Plan: Current
Backlash-countering linear position sensor - Alternate Plan B
Date
2
Consequence
Type (based on source of risk) High
O- Original Moderate
Technical
X - Current
Low
Mitigation Plan Status:
Action/Event
X
O
Likelihood
Visibility
5
Site
4
Program
3
Platform
Integration Team 2
Local
1
Phase
Archived
1
Open
Risk Level if
Successful
L
C
3
3T
Suc.
Comments
1=Produce conceptual design for 11/10/08 11/10/08
sensor and software that can
detect and correct for backlash.DP
Sensor that detects and
corrects for backlash can be
designed with existing
technologies in existing
number of tracks.
3
3T
If unsuccessful, develop a design with
more tracks, per Alternate Plan C.
2=Develop readhead and test
with code for reflectance and
contrast ratio.-CM
Reflectance and contrast ratio
with contamination and
prototype readhead allow
sufficient power to reach
detector for clear reading of
sensor position.
2
3T
If unsuccessful, redesign the readhead.
3/31/09 3/31/09
Suppose the outcome of Plan B, Event 1 is not successful
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Plan C
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
Description: The optical position sensor concept has a serial optical position
track on the ram shaft. This exposes the optic code and read head to
contamination, and the serial track is sensitive to backlash.
Likelihood Rationale: The actuator is exposed to water, ice, oily fluids, sand,
and dust. Backlash could cause the shaft direction of motion to not match the
commanded motion, making a misread of the digital position.
Consequence Rationale: The linear sensor could be placed in a sealed case and
mechanically connected to the actuator, adding weight and volume. Additional
track might solve the backlash problem, but reducing the optical power.
Evaluation Phase Sensor failed to perform on EMA.
Alternative designs using traditional code plates in protected locations
R
have been proposed.
Initial Plan Risk Level
Schd.
ECD
N/A
Act.
Success Criteria
N/A
3
4
5
Plan: Current
Multi-Track Ram Position Sensor Risk - Alternate Plan C
Date
2
Consequence
Type (based on source of risk) High
O- Original Moderate
Technical
X - Current
Low
Mitigation Plan Status:
Action/Event
X
O
Likelihood
Visibility
5
Site
4
Program
3
Platform
Integration Team 2
Local
1
Phase
Archived
1
Open
Risk Level if
Successful
L
C
3
3T
Suc.
Comments
1=Design additional sensor track 12/19/08 12/19/08
to compensate for backlash.-DP
Analysis indicates additional
track will reduce position
ambiguity to less than one
position track bit width, and
that direction ambiguity is not
an issue for the system.
3
3T
If unsuccessful, redesign backlash
compensation track.
2=Review contamination tests
and select marking technology.DP
Reflectance and contrast ratio
with lab test readhead allow
sufficient light to reach
detector for clear reading of
sensor position for selected
markings.
2
3T
If chemical marking is selected, this
step is successful, and the risk is
reduced to 2, 3, and no seal wear test
is needed. If laser marking is selected,
the risk stays at 3, 3, and a step to test
seal wear is needed.
1/15/09 1/15/09
Suppose the outcome of Plan C, Event 1 is also not successful
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Plan D, Page 1
0
Boeing Applied
Photonics
Description: The optical position sensor concept has a serial optical position
track on the ram shaft. This exposes the optic code and read head to
contamination, and the serial track is sensitive to backlash.
Likelihood Rationale: The actuator is exposed to water, ice, oily fluids, sand,
and dust. Backlash could cause the shaft direction of motion to not match the
commanded motion, making a misread of the digital position.
Consequence Rationale: The linear sensor could be placed in a sealed case and
mechanically connected to the actuator, adding weight and volume. Additional
track might solve the backlash problem, but reducing the optical power.
Evaluation Phase Sensor failed to perform on EMA.
Alternative designs using traditional code plates in protected locations
R
have been proposed.
Initial Plan Risk Level
1=Assemble sensor with laseretched code tracks for laboratory
demonstration environments
only.-DP
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Schd.
ECD
N/A
7/31/09 7/31/09
Act.
Success Criteria
N/A
Sensor operates properly at
supplier facility and has optical
loss and contrast that indicate
it will work with a
optoelectronic control and
cable plant with nominal
laboratory environment
performance.
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2
3
4
Plan: Current
High Contrast and Resolution Sensor Track - Alternate Plan D
Date
T
5
Consequence
Type (based on source of risk) High
O- Original Moderate
Technical
X - Current
Low
Mitigation Plan Status:
Action/Event
X
O
Likelihood
Visibility
5
Site
4
Program
3
Platform
Integration Team 2
Local
1
Phase
Archived
1
Open
Risk Level if
Successful
L
C
2
3T
2
3T
Suc.
Comments
If unsuccessful, rebuild and retest
sensor.
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Plan D, Page 2
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
High Contrast and Resolution Sensor Track - Alternate Plan D
Action/Event
2=Integrate actuator with Hbridge, optoelectronic controller,
and cable plant, and
demonstrate position sensor
operation.-CM
Closure Event
Design validation phase
sensor to incorporate
different chemical etching
technique to form high
resolution code tracks and
lessons from previous step,
and test with read head.
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Date
Schd.
ECD
Act.
Success Criteria
Risk Level if
Successful
L
C
1/31/10 1/31/10
Linear position sensor output
matches output from
processing shaft angle sensor
data in the lab demo
environment.
2
3T
3/31/10 3/31/10
Closure Criteria
Chemically etched code
track achieves same
resolution and higher
contrast than laser etched
track when read by sensor
read head
1
3T
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Suc.
Comments
Closure Rationale/
Verification of Effectiveness:
To have reached this step, the
sensor must have worked with
contaminated surfaces, have met
backlash resistance
requirements, and operates with
chemically etched markings
which are smooth and do not
affect the seals.
Opportunity Management
Approach
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
• Opportunity a function of:
– Likelihood of the Opportunity Arising
– Consequences of taking advantage of the
Opportunity
• Easily diagrammed on a 2-D Chart
T
X
High
Moderate
Low
Likelihood
5
4
3
2
O
O- Original
X - Current
T - Target
1
1 2 3 4 5
Consequence
Example above is of a opportunity that has been largely exploited
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Opportunity Likelihoods
Level
Probability
0
Boeing Applied
Photonics
Maturity
5
Near Certainty
90% or more Probability of Occurrence Existing Design or Processes.
under current plan.
4
Highly Likely
65% to 90% Probability of Occurrence
under current plan.
Technology available in
similar application or process.
3
Likely
35% to 65% Probability of Occurrence
under current plan.
Redesign or adaptation of
existing design or process.
2
Low Likelihood
10% to 35% Probability of Occurrence
under current plan.
Major redesign of existing
design or process.
Less than 10% Probability of
Occurrence under current plan.
New design or process.
1
Not Likely
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Opportunity Likelihoods
Level
Complexity
0
Boeing Applied
Photonics
Dependency
5
Near Certainty
Simple Design or Process. No
training needed.
Not dependent on acts of other
organizations.
4
Highly Likely
Design or Process
understandable. Some training
required.
Moderately dependent on acts of other
organizations.
3
Likely
Design or Process is manageable
by the organization. Training
required.
Typical dependence on acts of other
organizations, such as subcontracted
suppliers.
2
Low Likelihood
1
Not Likely
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Significant increase in complexity. Dependent on acts and support of other
Significant training required.
organizations outside the control of the
prime contractor.
Extremely complex design or
process. Requires major
commitment to new training
program.
Highly dependent on acts and support
of other organizations outside the
control of the prime contractor.
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Opportunity Consequences
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
Consequences come in four types: Technical, Schedule, Cost, and Producability
Level
1
Minimal
2
Minor
Technical
Minimal or no
impact to
achieved TPM
performance.
Achieved TPM
performance
improves as
much as 5%.
Schedule
Minimal or no
impact on
schedule.
Cost
Minimal or no
impact on
program cost.
Producability Minimal
improvement
in flow, tooling,
or resources.
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3
Moderate
4
Significant
5
Substantial
Achieved TPM
performance
improves as
much as 15%.
Achieved TPM
performance
improves as
much as 35%.
Achieved TPM
performance
improves more
than 35%.
Major
milestone(s)
met up to 3
weeks early.
Major
milestone(s) met
up to 7 weeks
early.
Major
milestone(s) met
up to 13 weeks
early.
Major
milestone(s) met
more than 13
weeks early.
Reduction in
ETC of up to
1%.
Reduction in
ETC of up to
3%.
Reduction in
ETC of up to
5%.
ETC reduction
exceeds 5%.
Minor
improvement in
flow, tooling, or
resources.
Medium
improvement in
flow, tooling, or
resources.
Significant
improvement in
flow, tooling, or
resources.
Producability
goals exceeded in
multiple areas.
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Opportunity Example
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
Optical Linear Position Sensor
Description: Embeddable rad-hard strain sensors would
allow monitoring of strain during magnet production, first
cool-down, and first field; and, would also allow monitoring
of operational strain.
Opportunity Source: Technical
Likelihood Rationale: Requires development on new types
of sensors, such as grating sensors in hollow photonic band
gap optical fibers.
Consequence Rationale: Would allow major reductions in
recurring costs of magnet production, and would allow
monitoring of magnet health during use.
Opportunity Handling Strategy: Examine capabilities of
photoassisted chemical etching of glass, and develop fusion
techniques for splicing typical optical fiber to photonic band
gap fiber.
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Plan A, Page 1
0
Boeing Applied
Photonics
Description: Embeddable rad-hard strain sensors would allow monitoring of
strain during magnet production, first cool-down, and first field; but, would also
allow monitoring of operational strain.
Likelihood Rationale: Requires development on new types of sensors, such as
grating sensors in hollow photonic band gap optical fibers.
Likelihood
Visibility
5
Site
4
Program
3
Platform
Integration Team 2
Local
1
Phase
Archived
1
Open
Consequence Rationale: Would allow major reductions in recurring costs of
magnet production, and would allow monitoring of magnet health during use.
G
Baseline Plan A Hollow PBG Optical Fiber Sensors
Initial Plan Opp Level
Date
Schd.
ECD
N/A
Act.
Plan: Current
Success Criteria
N/A
Opp Level if
Successful
L
C
1
3P
1=Evaluate Translume Inc. and
Russian techniques for forming
strain-sensitive regions in hollow
core PBG fiber.-CM
6/15/08 6/15/08
At least one technique looks
viable for maturation within 12
months.
2
3P
2=Supplier develops prototype
sensor
6/15/09 6/15/09
Sensor operates in lab
environment with TBD
sensitivity and accuracy.
3
3P
3=Excitation/Read-Out
electronics demonstrates
detection of longitudinal and
transverse strain.-CM
8/15/09 8/15/09
Both types of strain detected
with TBD sensitivity.
3
4P
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X
O
2
3
4
5
Consequence
Type (based on source of opp) High
O- Original Moderate
Technical
X - Current
Low
Achievement Plan Status:
Action/Event
T
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Suc.
Comments
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Plan A, Page 2
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Boeing Applied
Photonics
Embeddable Rad-Hard Magnet Strain Sensors - Plan A
Action/Event
Closure Event
Demonstrate splicing of
traditional optical fiber to
PBG fiber .
Page 21 of 21
Date
Schd.
ECD
10/15/09 10/15/09
Act.
Success Criteria
Closure Criteria
Splicing successful with
less than 1 dB loss per
splice.
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Risk Level if
Successful
L
C
4
4
Suc.
Comments
Closure Rationale/
Verification of Effectiveness:
At this point a prototype
installable sensor system has
been produced with the needed
excitation/read-out electronics .