Transcript Document 7660621

Aviation Products from the Localized
Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)
Judy E. Ghirardelli
National Weather Service
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Presented at
Eastern Region Aviation Weather Conference
November 19, 2008
Outline
•
•
•
•
LAMP Overview
Brief LAMP Verification
Current Status and Products
Future Plans
LAMP Overview
Localized Aviation MOS Program
(LAMP) Background
• LAMP is a system of objective analyses, simple models, regression
equations, and related thresholds which together provide guidance
for sensible weather forecasts
• LAMP acts as an update to GFS MOS guidance
• Guidance is both probabilistic and non-probabilistic
• LAMP provides guidance for aviation elements
• LAMP bridges the gap between the observations and the MOS
forecast
• Good quality recent surface observations help to decrease
the uncertainty in the short term. As the observations become
less predictive later in the forecast period, the uncertainty
increases.
• Verification shows improvement on MOS in the first hours,
then skill comparable to MOS
LAMP Guidance Details
LAMP guidance is in the range of 1- 25 hours in 1 hour projections
•
•
•
LAMP provides station-oriented guidance for:
– all LAMP forecast elements
– ~1600 stations
– CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico
•
•
•
•
Temperature and dewpoint
Wind speed, direction, and gusts
Probability of precipitation (on hr)
Probability of measurable
precipitation (6- and 12-h)
LAMP provides grid-oriented guidance for:
• Precipitation type
– Thunderstorms:
• Precipitation characteristics
• Probability of thunderstorm occurrence • Thunderstorms
in a 2 hour period in a 20-km grid box • Ceiling height
• Best Category Yes/No of thunderstorm • Conditional ceiling height
occurrence in a 2 hour period in a 20- • Total sky cover
km grid box
• Visibility
• Conditional visibility
– CONUS only
• Obstruction to vision
As of November 13, 2008, LAMP is running 24
times a day (every hour) in NWS operations
Brief LAMP Verification
0900 UTC LAMP compared to MOS
Categorical Ceiling Height < 1000 feet
0900 UTC threat for ceiling height < 1000 feet
Cool season (October 2003 - March 2004); 1523 stations
1
0.9
Persistence
GFS MOS
LAMP
Threat score
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
3
6
9
12
15
Projection (hours)
0900 UTC LAMP verified against 0000 UTC GFS MOS
18
21
24
0900 UTC LAMP compared to MOS
Categorical Visibility < 3 miles
0900 UTC threat for visibility < 3 miles
Cool season (October 2003 - March 2004); 1523 stations
1
0.9
Persistence
GFS MOS
LAMP
Threat score
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
3
6
9
12
15
Projection (hours)
0900 UTC LAMP verified against 0000 UTC GFS MOS
18
21
24
Current Status and Products
Current Status and Products
• Guidance sent out from NCEP on SBN/NOAAPort and NWS
FTP Server
– ASCII text bulletin
– BUFR data
– GRIB2 thunderstorm data
• Available Products:
– Guidance viewable in AWIPS D2D and AvnFPS
– Website products:
• Text bulletins
• Station plots
• Meteograms
• Gridded Thunderstorm images
Overview of Available Products
• Available to NWS forecasters via AWIPS
– Guidance is viewed as text or graphically by forecasters
– Guidance is input into software for preparing TAFs
Example of a LAMP Text Bulletin
KBUF
UTC
TMP
DPT
WDR
WSP
WGS
PPO
PCO
P06
TP2
TC2
POZ
POS
TYP
CLD
CIG
CCG
VIS
CVS
OBV
BUFFALO
13 14 15 16
21 22 21 22
12 12 12 12
25 25 25 25
20 18 19 18
27 26 26 25
74 69 72 63
Y Y Y Y
0 0
99 99
S S
OV OV
6 6
5 5
7 7
6 5
N N
GFS LAMP
21 22 23
22 22 21
12 12 12
24 25 25
20 19 18
27 26 25
74 67 60
Y Y Y
GUIDANCE
2/19/2008
17 18 19 20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
22 22 22 22
21 20 20 20 20 20 19
12 12 12 13
12 13 13 13 13 13 12
25 25 24 24
25 25 25 25 24 24 25
19 18 19 19
17 15 13 12 12 11 10
26 26 26 27
24 21 NG NG NG NG NG
64 59 68 74
55 50 51 48 49 49 49
Y Y Y Y
Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
40
35
36
0 0 0 0 0 0
0
0
0
0
0
N N N N N N
N
N
N
N
N
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
99100100100100100100100100100100 99100100100100
S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S
OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV
6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
5 5 5 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N
1200
07 08
19 18
12 11
25 25
09 09
NG NG
48 47
Y Y
1
99
S
OV
6
6
7
5
N
UTC
09 10
17 16
11 11
25 25
09 08
NG NG
46 48
Y Y
11
16
10
25
08
NG
48
Y
0
0
N
N
1 1 1 1
99 99 99 99
S S S S
OV OV OV OV
6 6 6 6
6 6 6 6
7 7 7 7
5 5 5 5
N N N N
12
15
10
25
08
NG
48
Y
27
0
N
1
99
S
OV
6
6
7
5
N
13
16
9
25
08
NG
50
Y
1
99
S
OV
6
6
7
4
N
LAMP Station Plots
Elements
• Flight Category
• Ceiling Height
• Visibility
• Obstruction to Vision
• Total Sky Cover
• Precipitation Type
• Probability of
Precipitation
• Wind Speed
• Wind Gust
• Wind Direction
• Temperature
• Dewpoint
Click an element name on this slide to see its plot
LAMP Station Meteograms
Features
• Up to 12 displayable LAMP
forecast elements
• Real-time verification of
current and past cycles
• Verification of completed past
cycles including the
corresponding GFS MOS
forecast
Realtime Meteogram
Example
LAMP guidance for
Islip 11/17 12 UTC
Meteogram Example Continued
LAMP guidance for Islip 11/17 12 UTC
Verified Meteogram
Example
LAMP guidance for
Islip 11/16 12 UTC
(Note: MOS shown is
06 UTC GFS MOS)
LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category (Y/N)
All Projections
Future Plans
Depicting probabilities and
uncertainty in best category
forecast
Proposed new web page product
LAMP Categorical Forecast Selection
Process
The probability of “few” exceeds the
threshold value for “few” – LAMP
categorical forecast is “few”
80
Forecast Probability
Does the forecast
Threshold Value
Does the forecast
probability of few
probabilityDoes
of the forecast
equal or exceed the
probability
of broken
scattered equal
or
threshold for few?
Does
equal or exceed
thethe forecast
exceed the threshold
for scattered?threshold forprobability of
broken?overcast equal or
exceed the threshold
for overcast?
Probability (%)
60
40
20
0
Clear
Few
Scattered
Broken
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Overcast
Category 5
Depicting Probabilistic
Information
Purpose: indicate to user the uncertainty associated with the Best Category
forecasts given the probabilistic information
Threshold = dashed black line
Probability < thres = green line
Probability ≥ thres = red line
St. Louis – slight
chance of precip
St. Cloud – high
chance of precip
Chicago – slight
chance yes and slight
chance no precip
San Francisco –
very small chance
of precip
LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories
Threshold Plot Tab
Look at rarest of
these categories
first.
The probability of vis < 1 mile (solid line) does not
exceed the threshold (dashed line). Look to next
rarest category.
LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories
Threshold Plot Tab
Look at next
rarest of these
categories.
The probability of vis < 3 miles (solid line) exceeds
the threshold (dashed line) only for the last hour;
therefore this condition is indicated for only that hour.
Look to next rarest category to determine the
conditions for other hours.
LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories
Threshold Plot Tab
Look at next
rarest of these
categories.
The probability of vis ≤ 5 miles (solid line) DOES
exceed the threshold (dashed line) at times; therefore
this condition is indicated for those times.
Note that vis ≤ 5 is not chosen for the last hour,
because a rarer condition (vis < 3 miles) was already
indicated.
LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories
Threshold Plot Tab
Show all
together.
Looking at these categories, look at the rarest first,
then the next rarest, etc. The condition indicated is
the rarest probability which exceeds its threshold.
This is indicated by the red probability line.
LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories
Uncertainty Plot Tab – looking at vis ≤ 5 miles
Red=Yes
Probability exceeds
threshold by more
than 10%
Orange=Likely
Probability exceeds
threshold but NOT by
more than 10%
Yellow = Chance
Cyan = No
Probability is less
Probability is less
than threshold
butthis shows you one condition
than
threshold
Note that
(e.g.,
vis ≤ 5 by
withinmiles).
10% To determine the most likely condition,
more thanyou
10%
should consider the rarest conditions first.
LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories
Uncertainty Plot Tab – looking at vis ≤ 5 miles
What’s next?
Gridded LAMP
Total sky cover - Station guidance
Total sky cover - Gridded guidance
LAMP Aviation Grids
LAMP Probability of ceiling height ≤ 3000 feet
Questions?
• LAMP Website:
– http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/gfslamp.shtml
• Contact:
– [email protected]