Transcript Document 7624917

Future of
Application
Development
Keith Jaeger
Unprecedented Change

Huge amounts will be spent to change applications
in the next 5 years

The rate of change will increase the risk to
development projects - which already “fail” up to
90% of the time (IDC)

The opportunity to make MIS a competitive
advantage consequently grows for those who know
how to succeed
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Driving Forces Behind Change
Technology
Driven
Feature
Driven
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Cost
Driven
Mandated Business Changes
Technology
Driven
Feature
Driven
Year 2000
European Currency
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Cost
Driven
Two Strategies
Application
Application
Application
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Budget Impact of Patching
$1.00 a line
of code
Technology
Driven
Feature
Driven
Year 2000
European Currency
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Cost
Driven
Driving Forces Behind Change
Distributed Computing
Components
Technology
Driven
Feature
Driven
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Cost
Driven
Increased Pace of Technology Change
VS
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Technology Risks
Smalltalk Glockenspiel
Taligent
Gupta
OpenDoc
NEXT
MOTIF
Token Ring
OS/2
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CGI
Bin
ADcycle
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“N-Tier” Client Server
Windows
client
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NT
NT
MVS
HP/UX
HP/UX
AS/400
AS/400
Dynamic Partitioning
Mobile computing, Failover, Distributed servers
PgmB
NT
PgmB
HP
PgmA
PgmB
Client
PgmB AS/400
PgmB AS/400
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SMP’s and Clustering
Application
Task
Processor
Processor
#1
#4
Processor Processor
#2
#3
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Cost Pressures
Technology
Driven
Feature
Driven
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Cost
Driven
New Platforms
Labor Shortages
Packages
Labor Challenges

Labor Shortage

Skills Mismatch

Shortening Tenure
Cost of skilled
developers:
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Software Economics
Software becomes a commodity
Price = Fixed Cost + Marginal Cost
Units

Bill Joy’s Law (SUN):
Don’t write software for less than 100,000
customers - $10 million = $1000 price

Bill Gates Law (Microsoft):
Don’t write software for less than 1,000,000
customers - $10 million = $100
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The 90’s - Move to Packages
Efficiencies of Multiple Implementations
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Grove’s Law - Horizontal Consolidation

Breaks old vertical
model

Each layer picks
best from lower
layer

A dominant player
tends to emerge in
each layer

Different layers for
different price
points/hardware
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Function
Operation
Integration
Applications
Database
Baseware
System
Chips
PC's
AT&T
EDS
SAP
Oracle
Microsoft
Compaq
Intel
…
Grocery
Retail
Manufacturing
Court House
Stock Exchange
Local Government
Distribution
Pensions
Reinsurance
Commercial Insurance
Health Care
“Generic” Layer Within Applications
ERP, Financials, Human Resources …

Pressure to integrate
with “complete
solution”
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
New applications
move to “generic” list
Dominant Players “Stretch” Layers

Extend to other
platforms
Function
PC's
Operation
Integration
Applications
Database
Baseware
System
Chips
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
Redefine layers to
leverage dominance
Midrange Mainframe
Oracle
Moore’s Law
Hardware technology
improves 4X every
3 years

While some
improvement
means more
capacity at the
Time
same price,
Mainframe
Midrange
there is a
downward pressure on prices
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Price

PC
Gordon Bell’s Platform Economics
Software prices follow hardware prices
1000000
100000
10000
Cost
1000
App Price
App Volume
100
10
1
Mainframe
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Midrange
Server
NetPC
Cost Pressure
Software price follows hardware
However, costs remain constant
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Application Growth Segments


New Hardware Markets

NT

Internet

Hand held

Home applications

Lower price, little differentiation
New Vertical Niches

High price, highly customized
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Customization to Fill Gap
Customization
Solution
Price
Package
Price
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Reuse Through O-O
Procedural
Relational
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Object
Oriented
Failed to Take Hold in Applications
Procedural
Relational
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Object
Oriented
New Answer: Components
Procedural
Relational
Object
Oriented
Components
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Components
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Component Types

VBX controls



Sliders, graphs, fuel gauges, grids etc.
ActiveX controls

similar to VBX

32 bit COM controls

Internet enabled
Java beans

Internet enabled

Downloadable to browser
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Benefits
AS/400
NT
Allows you to mix your objects with others on
other platforms at any time
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Move to “Business Components”
Packages
Business
Components
Controls
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Large Scale Business Components
Business
Object
User Classes
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Jaeger’s Law
The more complex a component, the smaller
the number of opportunities for its use
Corollary:
The more business content in a component,
the smaller the number of opportunities for
its use
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Gartner View of Options
Packages
Components
Cost
Templates
Custom
Flexibility
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Next Major Leap

Packages/components that can be customized at a
lower cost

More flexibility like templates

Reuse like business components
Vendors (or in-house development) that
achieve these two objectives will establish
dominance in the next cycle
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Template “Types”
Design
Level
“Patterns”
Source
Level
“Frameworks” San
Francisco
Obsydian
Execution “Components” Packages
Level
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Building a Kitchen

Plug-ins: add customization
into a pre-built kitchen

Frameworks: customize by
following rules to extend a
kitchen blueprint

Patterns: customization draws
a new blueprint
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End User Control of Desktop
Fixed
Character
Windows
Desktop
Browser
Navigation
Customized
Display
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End User Control of Behavior
Fixed
Programs
“.Ini File”
Control
Control of
Business Rules
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Driving Forces
Distributed Computing
Components
Technology
Driven
Feature
Driven
Year 2000
European Currency
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Cost
Driven
New Platforms
Packages
Conclusions

Massive redevelopment in next 3-5 years due to Y2K,
EUC, Web, NT, components

NT and Moore’s law will push package prices lower,
but not necessarily solution price

Vendors who lead the next wave will be easiest to
customize

New tools and development technologies will take on
increased importance
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