Transcript RUC – RAOB – TAMDAR SOUNDINGS Ed Szoke* NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory

RUC – RAOB – TAMDAR SOUNDINGS
Ed Szoke*
NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory
*Joint collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere,
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs RAOBs – some observations
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At the time of the last meeting...
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Found lots of variability in the TAMDAR soundings
● Often soundings close in time were not consistent
Now...
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Much less variability
Soundings tend to show good consistency
And generally compare better to nearby raobs
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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Overview
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Assessing TAMDAR data quality...quick review
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Examining impact of TAMDAR on RUC forecasts
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Compare TAMDAR soundings with each other
Compare to a “verifying” raob sounding
● Concentrated on DTW and MSP and PIA
Look at RUC forecast soundings with and without
TAMDAR and compare to raobs
Also compare RUC analyses
Potential forecast value of TAMDAR soundings
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Consistency and potential usefulness of TAMDAR
soundings...a brief case
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs RAOBs – Weather at 1200 UTC 19 August 05
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs 1200 UTC 19 August 05 DTW RAOB – flights to ENE
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs 1200 UTC 19 August 05 DTW RAOB – flights to ENE
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Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs 1200 UTC 19 August 05 DTW RAOB – flights to ENE
Agreement is not as good but note TAMDARS are heading NW and
the raob would have headed to the ene.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs RAOBs – DTW 1200 UTC 22 August 05
Quite a bit of lower
level moisture over
the Upper Midwest.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs DTW RAOB – flights to the SE
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TAMDAR soundings vs DTW RAOB – flights to the ENE
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Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs DTW RAOB – flights to the NW
Note that the raob heads to the ESE
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs MSP RAOB – flights to the E
Note the good consistency between TAMDARs 2 min apart.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs MSP RAOB – flights to the E-ENE
Not sure about the 1231 UTC TAMDAR flight...
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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TAMDAR soundings vs MSP RAOB – flights to the S
Excellent agreement on the height of the inversion base.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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Next we will look at impact of TAMDAR on the RUC
- Examine RUC with (“dev2”) and without (“dev”) TAMDAR
- Using mainly DTW and MSP locations
- Look first at RUC analyses and compare to raobs
- Then see if impact is seen in the forecasts by looking at mainly
3 and 6 h forecasts and comparing to raobs.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analysis soundings vs RAOBs – 18 August 2005
Surface map with radar for 1200 UTC.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analysis soundings vs DTW RAOB – 18 August 2005
Comparison of RUC analyses for 1200 UTC with (dev2) and without
(dev) TAMDAR. Appears to be a better match to the sounding when the
TAMDAR data was included.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analysis soundings vs MSP RAOB – 1200 UTC 18 August 05
The same type of example from MSP; could argue that dev2 is a slightly
better match to the raob.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 19 Aug
Comparison of RUC forecast soundings for Detroit at 0000 UTC – 3 h forecasts.
-soundings are different, but dev1 (w/o TAMDAR) may be closer match to raob.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 19 Aug
Comparison of RUC forecast soundings for Detroit at 0000 UTC – 6 h forecasts.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 19 Aug
Comparison of RUC forecast soundings for Detroit at 0000 UTC – 9 h forecasts.
-9 h is rather far into the forecast but note differences do appear between the
forecasts...not clear which one is better for this case.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 19 Aug
Comparison of RUC forecast soundings for Detroit at 0000 UTC – 12 h forecasts.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 23 Aug 05
Quite a bit of
low level
moisture MIMN with
extensive low
clouds over MI.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 23 Aug 05
TAMDAR data available for 2300-0100 UTC, approximating what was
available for the RUC 0000 UTC runs.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug
Comparison with
the Detroit 0000
UTC raob. RH
differences exist
between the RUC
analyses but dev2
(with TAMDAR)
does not look as
good as dev1
(RUC analysis
without
TAMDAR) for
this site.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug
Comparison with
the Minneapolis
0000 UTC raob.
This time dev2
(with TAMDAR)
looks better at
lower levels.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug
Comparison with
the Davenport
Iowa 0000 UTC
raob. Dev2 (with
TAMDAR)
temperature looks
better at and
above 850 mb.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug
Comparison with
the Peoria Illinois
0000 UTC raob.
No improvement
seen for this site,
but there are much
fewer flights into
PIA.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC 6h forecasts with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug
Comparison of 6h
RUC forecasts
with the Detroit
0000 UTC raob.
Mixed results,
down low dev
(w/o TAMDAR)
looks best with T,
but above ~850
mb dev2 (with
TAMDAR)
closely matches
the raob in T and
Td.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC 6h forecasts with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug
Comparison with
the MSP 0000
UTC raob. Less
differences in the
forecasts.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC 6h forecasts with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug
Comparison with
the Green Bay
0000 UTC raob.
Mixed...T better,
RH not, for dev2
(with TAMDAR).
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC 6h forecasts with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug
Comparison with
the Peoria 0000
UTC raob. Little
difference
between the 2
forecasts aob 800
mb, but better RH
with dev2 above
this level.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 23 Aug
Quiet weather
aloft but still
lots of low level
moisture,
especially
eastern WI
through MI.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 23 Aug
TAMDAR flights before 1200 UTC.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 23 Aug
For Detroit.
Not much
difference
down low, but
aob 750 mb
dev2 RH
better.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 23 Aug
MSP shown
here...much
better
temperature for
dev2 in the
lowest 100 mb.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 23 Aug
Not true
though at PIA,
but again less
TAMDAR
here.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 24 Aug
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 24 Aug
The same type of example for 12z from MSP; could argue that dev2 is a
better analysis.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 24 Aug
Analyses for
Detroit.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 24 Aug
Analyses for MSP
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecasts without TAMDAR for Detroit for 0000 UTC 24 Aug
3 and 6 h forecasts
for Detroit.
Improvement with
time around 800
mb but not lower
down.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecasts with TAMDAR for Detroit for 0000 UTC 24 Aug
Dev2 forecasts
more consistent.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecasts without TAMDAR for MSP at 0000 UTC 24 Aug
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecasts with TAMDAR for MSP valid at 0000 UTC 24 Aug
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC forecasts with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 24 Aug
Comparing the
two 3-h forecasts.
Note the great
match from dev2
for lower level T
but dev is better
for Td.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 24 Aug
Still lots of lower
level moisture
around.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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~TAMDAR availability for the 1200 UTC 24 Aug RUC
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 24 Aug
Analyses for
Detroit.
Much better
moisture
down low
with
TAMDAR.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 24 Aug
Analyses for
MSP. Dev2
with
TAMDAR
captures the
low level
inversion
better.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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Case study of potential forecast value of TAMDAR soundings
-rapidly evolving environment in the Dakotas leading to tornadoes
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Radar overview – 1900 UTC
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Radar overview – 2100 UTC
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Radar overview – 2200 UTC
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Radar overview – 2300 UTC
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TAMDAR availability: area is at the western edge of flights.
August 25, 2005
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BIS RAOBs – the day starts with VERY shallow moisture but
increasing southerly flow above the surface.
A lot happens
before the next
raob at 0000 UTC
to set up a
supercell
environment what did
TAMDAR show?
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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ABR RAOB with 1301 and 1326 UTC TAMDARs
Note the increase
in moisture just
after the sounding
launch and the
increasing low
level southerly
flow.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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ABR TAMDARs from 1533 to 1938 UTC.
This Aberdeen
TAMDAR series of
soundings nicely
shows the
increasing depth
of low-level
moisture even as
the boundary
layer warms.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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GFK TAMDARs from 1705 to 1913 UTC.
Grand Forks
TAMDAR series of
soundings also
shows the
increasing depth
of low-level
moisture.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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GFK CAPE/CIN for TAMDARs from 1705 vs. 1913 UTC.
Considerably less inhibition and more CAPE in just 2 h as shown by the
TAMDAR soundings.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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Environmental variability within the spacing of the raob network
Huge amount of variability on this day.
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Overall Summary
TAMDAR quality has improved since our last meeting
● This allows forecasters to have more confidence in using the
data
● Showing impact of TAMDAR on RUC forecasts is tricky
● But is fairly clear that one can see the impact on the
analyses
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Would like to look more at < 3 h forecasts
It is easier to find examples of how TAMDAR data can aid
operational forecasting and these can be quite dramatic
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Compared with “smaller” effects in NWP models.
August 25, 2005
Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke
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