Transcript Document 7534169

DECISION MAKING
DECISION MAKING..
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THE SELECTION FROM AMONG ALTERNATIVES OF A
COURSE OF ACTION
CORE OF PLANNING
IT IS A RATIONAL PROCESS
CONSISTS OF IDENTIFYING/ DEVELOPING
ALTERNATIVES
EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES w.r.t GOALS
SOUGHT & CHOOSING AN ALTERNATIVE
SOME ALSO INCLUDE PREMISING AS A PART OF
DECISION MAKING
GOTO
RATIONALITY…
1.
2.
THERE MUST BE AN ATTEMPT TO REACH
SOME GOAL THAT COULD NOT BE
ATTAINED WITHOUT POSITIVE ACTION
THEY MUST HAVE A CLEAR
UNDERSTANDING OF ALTERNATIVES BY
WHICH A GOAL COULD BE REACHED
UNDER EXISTING CIRCUMSTANCES
AND/OR LIMITATIONS
RATIONALITY..
3. THEY MUST HAVE INFORMATION AND
ABILITY TO ANALYZE AND EVALUATE
ALTERNATIVES IN LIGHT OF GOALS SOUGHT
4. THEY MUST HAVE A DESIRE TO COME TO
THE BEST SOLUTION BY SELECTING THAT
ALTERNATIVE WHICH BEST SATISFIES GOAL
ACHIEVEMENT.
PREVIOUS
DEVELOPING ALTERNATIVES
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IT IS RARE FOR ALTERNATIVES TO BE
LACKING
CASE STUDY
ABILITY TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE IS
AS IMPORTANT AS SELECTING THE
BEST ONE
PRINCIPLE OF THE LIMITING
FACTOR
IN CHOOSING FROM AMONG ALTERNATIVES,
THE MORE AN INDIVIDUAL CAN RECOGNISE
AND SOLVE FOR THOSE FACTORS WHICH
ARE LIMITING OR CRITICAL TO THE
ACHIEVEMENT OF THE DESIRED GOAL, THE
MORE CLEARLY AND ACCURATELY HE OR
SHE CAN SELECT THE MORE FAVOURABLE
ALTERNATIVE.
PREVIOUS
SELECTION FROM AMONG
ALTERNATIVES
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EXPERIENCE
EXPERIMENTATION
RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
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PREVIOUS
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OPERATIONS RESEARCH
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CONCEPT
ESSENTIALS OF O.R.
PROCEDURE
DISTRIBUTION LOGISTICS MODEL – eg
TOOLS IN O.R :
PROBABILITY THEORY
GAME THEORY
QUEUEING THEORY
LINEAR PROGRAMMING
OPERATIONS RESEARCH..
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LIMITATIONS:
1.NUMBER OF VARIABLES AND THEIR
INTERRELATIONSHIPS
2. HIGH ORDER OF MATHEMATICS
3. COMPLEX
4. QUANTIFICATION OF QUALITATIVE
FACTORS
5. MANAGERS LACK MATHEMATICAL
KNOWLEDGE
6. OPERATIONS RESEARCH SCIENTISTS LACK
MANAGERIAL KNOWLEDGE
MODERN APPROACHES TO
DECISION MAKING
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RISK ANALYSIS
DECISION TREES
PREFERENCE THEORY
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GOTO
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DECISION TREES
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION
 DECISION POINTS AND CHANCE
EVENTS ALONG WITH PROBABILITIES
ARE MENTIONED
 AS CHANCE EVENTS INCREASE, THE
TREE BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED
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DECISION TREES..
ADVANTAGES:
1.
ABLE TO SEE AS A GRAPHICAL
REPRESENTATION , THE ALTERNATIVES
AVAILABLE
2.
BY INCORPORATING PROBABLILTIES,
COMPREHENSION OR TRUE PROBABILITIES
OF DECISIONS LEADING TO DESIRED
RESULTS ARE MORE CLEAR
3.
DECISIONS ARE FASTER AND SHARPER
PREVIOUS
EVALUATING THE DECISION
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SIZE OR LENGTH OF COMMITMENT
FLEXIBILITY OF PLANS
CERTAINITY OF GOALS AND PREMISES
QUANTIFIABILITY OF VARIABLES
HUMAN IMPACT
CASE –OLYMPIC TOY COMPANY
“ I expect all my managers to act rationally in every decision that
they make ,” declared Shanti, the VP for Olympic. “ Everyone of
us, no matter what his/her position, is hired to be a professional
rationalist , and I expect all of us not only to know what they are
doing but to be right in their decisions. I would agree that you
may be excused for occasionally making a mistake , especially if
it is a matter beyond your control, but I can never excuse you for
not acting rationally.”
“I agree with your idea ,Madam, “ said Manjeet, the advertising
manager,” and I always try to be rational and logical in my
decisions. But would you mind helping me and explaining just
what ‘acting rationally’ is ?”
THE END.