Transcript Document 7531169

Observing System Simulation
Experiments for Unmanned Aircraft
Systems
Nikki Privé1,2, Yuanfu Xie2, T.W. Schlatter2, M.
Masutani3, R. Atlas4, Y. Song3, J. Woollen3, and
S. Koch2
1Cooperative
Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Boulder, CO
2Global Systems Division, Earth Systems Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder CO
3National Center for Environmental Prediction, NOAA, Camp Springs MD
4Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami FL
Unmanned Aircraft Systems
• UAS consist of the aircraft, communications,
and control/support systems
• Many different platforms, each having
different flight and payload capabilities
• NOAA UAS Program
– Fill in existing data gaps
– Improve forecasting of tropical cyclones and
atmospheric river events
– Climate monitoring in the Arctic and Atlantic
– Fisheries monitoring and enforcement
NOAA is looking at a broad range of UAS platforms to
fill data gaps……..
Slide courtesy of Sara Summers
Slide courtesy of Sara Summers
What is an OSSE?
An OSSE is a modeling experiment used to evaluate
the impact of new observing systems on operational
forecasts when actual observational data is not
available.
• A long free model run is used as the “truth” - the Nature
Run
• The Nature Run fields are used to back out “synthetic
observations” from all current and new observing systems.
• The synthetic observations are assimilated into a different
operational model
• Forecasts are made with the second model and compared
with the Nature Run to quantify improvements due to the
new observing system
Why a UAS OSSE?
• Assist with selection of optimal choice of
UAS platforms
– Are UAS the right choice?
– Combine with manned aircraft and other
observing systems
• Design of field experiments
– Flight paths
– Instruments
– UAS platforms
OSSE Progress
• Joint OSSE
– Collaboration between many agencies: ECMWF, NCEP,
ESRL, NESDIS, GMAO, and others
• Nature Run
– 13 month free run of the ECMWF operational model at
T511, 91 sigma levels
• Synthetic Observations
– Current observing systems
• Conventional synthetic obs generation completed
• Radiance synthetic obs generation in progess
– UAS synthetic obs generation code available for
dropsonde and in-situ observations
• Calibration
– Currently underway using archived real data for a
baseline
OSSE Calibration
Examine the synthetic observations in a series of
data denial experiments so that eventual OSSE
results can be put into context with the real world
1. Perform Observing System Experiments
(OSEs) using real observations
2. Perform OSEs using synthetic
observations of current observing systems
3. Compare OSE results and adjust synthetic
observations as needed
300 mb U-wind Analysis Impact, July-August 2005
850 mb U-wind Analysis Impact, July-August 2005
300 mb U-wind Forecast Impact, July-August 2005
Future Work
• Complete calibration using synthetic
observations
• Generate synthetic UAS observations
• Perform data denial experiments for
each UAS testbed