Transcript Decision-making Systems

Decision-making
Systems
Overview
What managers do?
Decision-making
Many views of MIS
Types of MIS
What managers do?
P ie
Regular meetings
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59. 0%
Travel
3. 0%
Other meetings
10. 0%
6. 0%
Phone calls
22. 0%
Desk work
Managerial roles and IS
support
Role
IS support
interpersonal
e-mail, video/teleconferencing,
computer-mediated meetings
informational
TPS,MIS,EIS,OIS
decisional
DSS,GDSS,EIS, AI/ES
Decision-making
Intelligence
problem
definition
Design
alternatives
Choice
resolution
Decision Support in Business
Information Requirements
of Decision Makers
Decision Structure
Unstructured
Information Characteristics
Strategic
Management
Executives & Directors
Semi-Structured
Tactical Management
Business Unit Management
Self-Directed Teams
Structured
Operational
Management
Ad Hoc
Unscheduled
Summarized
Infrequent
Forward Looking
External
Wide Scope
Prespecified
Scheduled
Detailed
Frequent
Historical
Internal
Narrow Focus
Operating Management & Self-Directed Teams
Decision Support in Business
Characteristics of Information Products
Time
Dimension
Content Dimension
Form Dimension
Decision Support in Business
Decision
Structure
Structured Decisions
Semistructured
Unstructed
Operational
Control
Management
Control
Strategic
Planning
Structured
Accounts
payable
Responsibility
accounting
Warehouse
and factory
location
Semistructured
Production
scheduling
Budget
preparation
Mergers and
acquisitions
Unstructured
Cash
management
Personnel
management
New products,
R&D planning
Time
horizon
strategic
tactical
operational
NOW
weeks
years
5-7
Users' view
USER
Clerical personnel
First-level managers
Staff specialists
Management
USES
Handling transactions, process
data and answer inquiries
Obtaining operations data.
Assistance with planning,
scheduling, identifying
out-of-control situations and
making decisions
Information for analysis. Assistance
with analysis, planning and
reporting.
Regular reports. Special retrieval
requests. Special analysis and
reports. Assistance in indentifying
problems and opportunities.
Assistance in decision-making
analysis.
Federative view
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Data base management
system
DATA BASE
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Integrative view
Functional
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Data base management system
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Typical Business System
Orders for
Materials
Manufacturing
Group
Sales
Orders
Requisition
Credit
Department
Order Desk
Purchasing
Invoice
Sent for
Shipping
Rules/
Standards
Finished
Goods
Stockroom
Materials
Order
Inventory
Management
Shipping/
Receiving
Accounting
Shipping
Traffic
Copyright 1995 Prentice Hall
Merchandise
Ordered
CI S 3
Types of Information Systems
TPS
MIS
EIS
DSS
GDSS
AI/ES
transaction processing
systems
management reporting
executive information
systems
decision support systems
group decision support
systems
expert systems
Management Information Systems
Management Reporting Alternatives
Components of a Marketing Information
CLIENTS
System
INTERNAL
Sales Prospects
and Rivals’ News
DATABASES
SERVER
Rivals’ News and
Company News
Sales Prospects
Rivals’ News
Sales Prospects
and Company
News
Customer
Data
Sales
Data
News Wires
Company News
The Server Filters
Information Based
on Users’ Custom
Requirements
Inventory
Data
Via the Internet
Firewall
Decision type
STRUCTURED
Intelligence
knowledge
Design
of all
Choice
steps
TPS
SEMI-STRUCTURED
no knowledge
of one or two
steps
DSS
UNSTRUCTURED
no knowledge
of any of the
steps
EIS
DSS generators
DSS
tools
technical
support
Specific
DSS
USERS
DSS
Generator
intermediary
DSS Builder
toolsmith
managers,
manager
users
Anatomy of a DSS
model base
data base
DBMS MBMS
DGMS
DSS generator
dialog,user
interface
users
Dialog styles

Basic types
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Q&A - Question and answer
Command language
Menu
Input Form/Output Form
Input-in-Context-of-Output
Pros and cons
 Mixed dialogs

Decision Support Systems
Using Decision Support
 What-if Analysis
 Sensitivity Analysis
 Goal-Seeking Analysis
 Optimization Analysis
GDSS - Group Decision Support
Systems
TIME
PLACE
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ANY (asynch)
DSS plus:
SAME (synch)
Groupware
place
SAME
FACE-TO-FACE
CONFERENCE
(WEBTYCHO)
ANY
VIDEO/TELECONFERENC
ING
VIRTUAL
Facilities
LAN decision
high network
Decision
frequency
Decision room
WAN decision
network
Teleconferencing
low
close
far
Executive Information
Systems
present information for top management
 supports problem/opportunity
discovery and assessment
 is used for control and
strategic planning

are multimedia systems
 provide summary and detailed information, with
the ability to "drill down" into the data
 provide internal and external information
 provide different time and space information

Artificial Intelligence
Overview of AI
Artificial
Intelligence
The Domains of AI
Artificial
Intelligence
Cognitive
Science
Applications
•Expert Systems
•Learning Systems
•Fuzzy Logic
•Genetic Algorithms
•Neural Networks
•Intelligent Agents
Robotics
Applications
•Visual Perception
•Tactility
•Dexterity
•Locomotion
•Navigation
Natural
Interface
Applications
•Natural Languages
•Speech Recognition
•Multisensory Interfaces
•Virtual Reality
Expert systems
...an intelligent computer program that uses knowledge
and inference procedures to solve problems that require
significant human expertise for their solution.
The knowledge of an expert systems consists of facts
and heuristics. Facts constitute the body of information
publicly available and agreed upon by experts in a field.
Heuristics are mostly private rules of good judgement
that characterize expert-level decision making in a field.
E. Feigenbaum, Stanford University
Artificial
Intelligence
Expert Systems
The Expert System
Expert System Software
Expert
Advice
User
Interface
Programs
Inference
Engine
Program
Knowledge
Base
User
Workstation
Expert System Development
Knowledge
Acquisition
Program
Knowledge
Engineering
Expert and/or
Knowledge Engineer
Workstation
Use and development of ES
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Expert systems products

Expert systems shells

Expert systems players
knowledge user
 knowledge engineer
 domain expert

Artificial
Intelligence
Virtual Reality (VR)
• Computer Simulated
Reality
• Multisensory
Input/Output Devices
• Data Glove
• Walker
• Creating Telepresence
With Sight, Sound, and
Touch
Artificial
Intelligence
Virtual Reality (VR)
GIS
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It is important to appreciate that GIS does
not always provide exact answers to
problems, but by identifying trends based
on geography, GIS can reveal patterns that
can help us make informed decisions. A
GIS can improve decision-making; it
cannot make decisions for us.
GIS Example: Emergency services
By using the GIS as a
computerized map, controllers
of police vehicles and
ambulances can instantly call
up a detailed map of the area
around an incident. By tracking
the vehicles in real time and
using route-finding GIS
functions, the controller can
identify the best vehicle to
attend and give directions for
the fastest way to the incident.
They can even store historical
information and look for
incident patterns and black
spots.
Shortcut to GIS_example.lnk
GIS Example: Supermarket
locations
Supermarket chains use GIS to help
site new stores and to plan their
distribution networks. By
comparing how many people live
within 15-minutes drive time of a
particular location with the number
of supermarkets already trading in
that area, the GIS can identify
suitable locations with an
optimized catchment area.
Supermarket chains also use socioeconomic data to create profiles of
the people in their catchment areas
to help them understand which
other parts of the country are likely
to be successful growth areas.
Additional Readings
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SDSS
Virtual Teams
Commerical GDSS
An Expert systems Application
DSS..Application
GIS Applications
Neural Networks
Negotaiation System Example
Knowledge management: big challenges, big rewards
New Directions in GDSS
RMIS system provides Chubb customers with current data and
extensive drill-down analysis