Transcript Enhancing the Explanatory Power of Intelligent, Model

Decision Support Systems
Robbie Nakatsu
AIMS 2710
The Business World Today
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More alternatives to choose from
Larger cost of making errors
More uncertainty in the future
Major Roles of Information
Systems
Support
Strategies for
Competitive Advantage
Support
Business Decision Making
Support
Business Processes and Operations
Types Of Decisions You Face
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STRUCTURED DECISIONS - those with a set of
steps that guarantee the correct solution.
UNSTRUCTURED DECISIONS – those with no
rules or criteria that guarantee a good solution.
SEMISTRUCTURED DECISIONS – some
decisions procedures can be specified, but not
enough to lead to a definite recommended decision
Defining DSS
A DSS (decision support system) is a highly
flexible and interactive IT system that is
designed to support decision making when
the problem is ill-structured.
A DSS assists you in making a decision, as
opposed to making the decision for you.
Imparting Structure to an
Ill-Structured Decision
DSS Supports OLAP
Online Analytical Processing (OLAP)
enables managers to manipulate large
amounts of data. Three basic operations:
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Consolidation (aggregate data)
Drill-down (display detail data)
Slicing and Dicing (look at data from different
viewpoints)
Goals of DSS
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Extend the decision-maker’s ability to tackle
large-scale, time-consuming, complex
problems.
Shorten the time associated with making a
decision.
Improve the reliability (or consistency) of a
decision outcome.
Encourage exploration and discovery on the
part of the decision maker; reveal new
approaches to problem-solving
Data Science:
The discovery of patterns in your data
Two Scenarios:
1. Moneyball: By analyzing baseball statistics,
the Oakland A’s determined what the best
predictors of baseball success were.
2. Target: Marketers analyzed customer data to
determine when a woman is expected to
become pregnant.
Organizational Decision-Making
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Determining new product design
Evaluating the impact of new
competition
Formulating a strategic plan
Supporting negotiations
Most important organizational decisions are
made not by individuals but by teams of
decision makers.
Benefits of Group Working
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A group has more information than any one
member
Working in a group may stimulate the
participants and the process.
Groups are better than individuals at
understanding problems.
Groups moderate high risk takers.
Question for Discussion
What types of technologies do we use today to
support team working?
Some obvious answers: email, databases, web
sites, smartphones