Transcript Decision Support Systems DSSs Introduction to MSS

Decision Support Systems DSSs
Introduction
University of Khartoum
Faculty of mathematical sciences
5th IT
Lecture 2
Objectives
• Understand the role of information in decision
making.
• Understand the essence of managerial
activities.
• Understand the effect of technology in
management decision making processes.
• Understand the decision phases.
• Understand the role of DSS in making
decisions.
Opening vignette: Decision support at
Roadway Package System [RPS]
• From 3 hubs and 36 terminals to 21 hubs and
over 300 terminals.
• How did RPS find a way in the competitive
Business-Business small packages delivery.
• How information helped gain new insights
into the business.
• Utilization of other systems as baseline for DSS
platform.
The nature of Managers work
• Mintzberg’s 10 managers major roles classified in
3 categories:
A- Interpersonal:
1- Figurehead.
2- Leader.
3- Liaison.
B- Informational
4- Monitor.
5- Disseminator.
6- Spokesperson.
The nature of Managers work
C- Decisional
7- Entrepreneur.
8- Disturbance handler.
9- Resource allocator.
10- Negotiator.
Managerial decision making and
Information systems
• Productivity is a measure of outputs to inputs.
• The role of every business is to maximize
productivity.
• All managers work revolve around decision
making.
• The changing environment requires changes in
management ways of doing work.
• (A good manager have the ability to make
prompt decisions rated first in surveys)
Factors affecting decision making
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Technology
Information/computers
Structural complexity
Competition
International markets.
Political stability.
Consumerism.
Government intervention.
Changes, fluctuations.
Factors affecting decision making
• Which has resulted in:
– More alternatives to choose from.
– Larger cost of marketing errors.
– More uncertainty regarding the future.
– Need for quick decisions.
– Need for flexibility and agility.
The need for computerized decision
support and the supporting technologies
• Some common reasons are:
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Speedy computations.
Increased productivity.
Technical support.
Quality support.
Competitive edge.
Overcoming cognitive limits in processing and
storage.
Cognitive limits
• Individual problem solving capability is limited
when diverse information and knowledge are
required.
• Pooling several individuals may help, but the
problem of coordination and communication
may arise.
• Computers can help in individual and group
decision making processes.
A Framework for Decision Support
• Gorry and Scott Morton (1977) combined
simon’s(1971 )framework and Anthony (1965)
suggest a framework based on both
• Structured, Semi-structured and unstructured.
• Strategic planning, Operational Control,
Managerial Control.
A Framework for Decision Support
• Structured process are routine, and typically
repetitive problems for which standard
solution methods exists.
• Unstructured processes: are fuzzy, complex
problems for which there are no direct
solution methods.
• Simon describe the decision making process
with [3/4] phases.
Simon Decision Making Phases
• Intelligence: Search for conditions that call for
decisions.
• Design: Inventing, developing and analyzing
possible courses of action.
• Choice: Selecting a course of action from
those available.
• Implementation: Measurement and
correction.
Categories of MSS that are used in
Decision Framework
• Structured: MIS, OR [Management Sciences],
OLTP.
• Semi-structured: DSS, IDSS, KMS
• Unstructured: EIS, ES, NN, KMS.
Computer Support for Structured
Decisions
• Structured and Semistructured decisions have
been supported by computers since 1960s.
• Such problems have high level of structure
therefore it is possible to abstract and analyze
them and classify them into prototypes.
– Make /buy decisions.
– Procurement, planning and inventory control.
• When a prescribed solution exists using
quantitative formulas or models this approach is
called Management Sciences (MS) or Operation
Research (OR).
Management Sciences
• Adopts the view that managers follow a fairly
systematic process In solving problems.
• The systematic process involves the following:
– Define the problem.
– Classify the problem into standard category.
– Construct a mathematical model that describe the
real world problem.
– Finding a potential solutions to the modeled problem
and evaluating them.
– Choosing and recommending a solution to the
problem.
Concept of DSS
• DSS is defined as:
– Interactive computer-based systems, which help
decision makers utilize data and models to solve
unstructured problems – (Gorry and Scott Morton
1971).
– DSS couple the intellectual resources of individuals
with the capabilities of a computer to improve the
quality of decisions. It is a computer-based support
system for management decision makers who deal
with simi-structured problems – (Keen and Scott
Morton 1978).
Why Use A DSS
• DSS is an umbrella term used to describe every
computerized system used to support decision
making in an organization.
Among DSS benefits are:
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Higher decision quality.
Improved communication.
Cost reduction.
Increased productivity.
Time savings.
Improved customer and employee satisfaction.
Group Decision Support Systems
• Many major decisions in organizations are made
by groups.
• Getting a group together in one place and at one
time can be difficult and expensive.
• Traditional group meeting can take a long time,
and resulting decisions may be questioned.
• OS Projects are available to aid in this area and
research as well, however they are based on
GDSS concepts.
DSS technology impact
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Executive information (Support) Systems.
Expert Systems and intelligent agents.
Artificial neural networks.
Knowledge management systems.
Hybrid support systems.