Transcript Document 7502400

The Future of Energy
Jean-Michel Gires
VP Sustainable Development and Environment
Total
Towards Sustainable Development
Brunei April 21st, 2007
Sustainable Development in TOTAL, why ?
Because sustainability issues are more and more important …
 Limited Resources (energy, raw materials, water, land, ecosystems …)
 Damaged Environment (air, water, wastes, soils …)
 Climate Change
… while Development question is still being asked everywhere …
 6 G inhabitants, maybe 10 G
 1 G in developed countries, 5 G in developing countries
 Food, housing … but as well comfort, electricity, mobility …
Because Big Companies are to be important Civil Society partners …
 Giving priority to their industrial and commercial challenges …
 Not always motivated to explain themselves, even with their neighbours …
 Lack of understanding with Civil Society as a normal consequence …
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Sustainable Development in TOTAL, how ?
In front of these civil society challenges, the company is putting at risk
its licence to operate, and its capacity to develop in the medium long
term; we therefore need a change in our practices
 Better control and reduce our impacts
 Better create value for all involved stakeholders
 Better prepare the long term future
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Energy Future : very important needs for developing countries
Energy consumption per capita (toe)
1960-2001 or 1971-2001
9
8
US
CANADA
7
6
5
EUROPE
4
JAPAN
KOREA
3
2
WORLD
1
CHINA
0
INDIA
0
HONG KONG
TAIWAN
5
10
Source : IEA
15
20
25
30
35
GDP per capita (k$1995 PPP)
At least 1 G extra people on their way to modern development
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Trend in car ownership :
a huge growth potential for China and India
Cars per 1000 persons
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1973
5
1980
1985
1990
1995
EU 15
Turkey
USA
South Korea
Japan
Argentina
China
India
Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
2001
2003
Energy : different uses at different development stages
Mb/j
Primary Energy consumption
160
+2%
140
Electricity
120
100
80
Transports
60
+2%
+1,3%
Heating
+1,1%
40
Industry
20
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Electricity
1995
2000
Transportation
2005
2010
Industry
2015
2020
2025
2030
Heating
Not the same issues for stationery uses, electricity and transport
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Demand will keep growing, and Oil and Gas will stay
essential in the short medium term
Oil : transport importance
Energy Demand
Billions toe
Billions
tons
16,5
16
+ 60%
13 %
5%
Hydro +
Renewable
22 %
12
Nuclear
10,3
8
60 %
13 %
7%
23 %
25 %
Coal
55%
60%
4
Pétrochemicals
21 %
57%
36 %
35 %
24 %
Oil
2030
Source: AIE WEO 2004
7
Raw material
Gas
0
2002
Transport
(fuels)
Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
22 %
8%
5%
2002
2030
Heating
Électricity
Proven Oil and Gas Reserves do allow to match these
challenges …
Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (G boe)
1200
1000
Oil and Gas Reserves:
Oil : proven reserves
800
•Proven: > 2000 G boe
•Additional: >1000 G boe
Gaz : proven reserves
600
400
200
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2004
Proven Reserves / production (years)
Oil
53
40
39
28
1970
68
67
65
Gas
27
1980
43
Longer reserves for gas, but
with a lower production
29
1990
2000
2004
Proven Reserves are increased by Technology and Investments
Investments are critical to increase production capacities
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Oil Price keeps high not because of lack of
capacity fears, not real market shortage …
Stocks OCDE
WTI
Demand Days
$/b
(inversed scale)
80
WTI
Stocks OECD
70
60
50
40
30
20
Stocks at 54 demand
days at end 2006
10
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Source : AIE
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Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
… because China Oil Consumption
keeps increasing …
Oil Production and Demand in China
Mb/d
8
0,4
0,2 0,4
7
0,9
47% of
2006
demand
6
5
4
Auto-sufficiency
3
2
1
0
1986
Source : IEA
10
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Production
Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
1998
2000
Demand
2002
2004
Imports =
2006 2007 (p)
… because production capacity reserve is low …
OPEC Production Capacity Reserve
Mb/j
Less than 2 Mb/j
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1985
1990
Production
Source : IEA, Total estimate
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1995
OPEC Spare capacity
2000
2005
Oil & Gas still have a lot to offer up to …
Extra heavy oil:
Seismic technology
Recovery
Acquisition
upgrading,
Imagery ( PSDM….)
Process integration
Lithoseismic, 4D
Gas Solutions
Sour gas, CO2 H2S process,
LNG
Energy and C02
Chemical conversion: GTL…
Deeply Buried Reservoirs:

Qwater
Reservoir prediction
High pressure drilling

Qoil
High temperature



Mature fields
EOR
Conventional
Selective
Debottlenecking
Waater separation
Tight gas
Volume estimates
Frac
Well pattern
Deep water:
Reservoir characterization
Subsea insstalations
Earthmodel
Flow assurance
Upscaling
Qualifications
Fault description
… no peak oil before at least 2025 …
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Long term future
Non-conventional oils challenges
300?
Billions of barrels
oil equivalent
01.01.2006
CIS
300?
Europe
Middle
East
North America
Asia Pacific
100?
Africa
Latin America
New fields
:
Other fields
:
Source: Oil and Gas Journal, IEA
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100 G b
600 G b
Arctic oil
Deep Offshore
Extra Heavy Oil
TOTAL : to develop Natural Gas by valuing
long distance gas sources
$
GNL
$
GNL
GNL
Trading
Major
Markets
$
GNL
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I&C sales
LNG Terminal
Power generation
Regional upstream interest
Gas pipeline
Group LNG flows
In service or under
construction
Under study
TOTAL presence in the Coal business
9,2 Mt sold in 2006
Other Atlantic Trading
0.5 Mt
Asia Trading
2.5 Mt
CDF Energie
2.2 Mt
Atlantic Sales
5.0 Mt
Johannesburg
Production: 4.4 Mt in 2006
• Arthur Taylor Colliery (50%)
production 4.1* 50%=2.0 Mt
• Forzando (100 %)
production 1,5 Mt
• Dorstfontein (75%)
production 0,8 * 0.75 = 0.6 Mt
Richards Bay
Terminal of Richards Bay
2004: 66 Mt achieved (dont. 2mt BEE)
Accès de TOTAL : 6% (y.c.BEE) , ( 9 % avec
ATC)
Cape Town
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Local sales
RSA:
0.8 Mt
Asia Sales:
0.4 Mt
Syngas as an intermediary product for Synfuels
Natural gas
Heavy Oil
Coal
Biomass
Acetic acid
SYNGAS
Formaldehyde
(CO + H2)
FT Synthesis
GTL
Methanol
Motor fuels:
Additives
Hydrogen
Diesel motor fuel Fuel cells
Kerosene
Lubricants
Alpha olefins
Ammonia
Urea
Electricity
Generation
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MTBE
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Fuel cells
Olefins
DME
Substitute Diesel
Motor fuel
LPG
Polypropylene
Acrylonitrile
Polyethylene
Ethylene Glycol
Alpha-olefins
… Renewable energies can increase their contribution …
Wind
Solar Photovoltaic
Hydroelectricty
Ocean
Geothermal
Solar thermal
Biomass
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Concentrating Solar
But, as biomass is the only renewable source able to
produce liquids, biofuels are more and more looked after
Ethanol and ETBE for gasoline
•ETBE
Sugar cane
Sugar beet
Cereals
Sugars
Preparation
Iso butylene
Fermentation
and
Purification
Ethanol
Synthesis and
purification
Blending with
gasoline and
Of ’ETBE
distribution
Esterification
and purification
Of ’VOME
Blending with
Gasoil and
distribution
Vegetable oils for diesel
•VOME
Rape Seed
Sunflower
Soy,…
Trituration
Extraction
Purification
Methanol /
Éthanol
Vegetable Oil
So far a limited contribution (35 Mtoe mainly Brazil & USA)
but a fast growing one
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New Energies : Biofuels challenge
900 kt already blended by Total in Europe
EMHV (gasoil pool)
F
I
D
UK, B, NL
RSA
. Mixed in refineries < 5%
. Ecodiesel for captive fleets < 30%
. Mixed in terminals < 5%
. Mixed in 2 refineries (PCK, TRM)
. Under discussion
. Under study
250.000 t/y
15.000 t/y
130.000 t/y
ETBE (gasoline pool)
F
ESP(CEPSA)
D (PCK)
B
UK
19
. 3 production units (RF,RN,FZN)
. 2 production units (Algeciras, Huelva)
. 1 prod. unit (Schwedt)
. 1 prod. unit (RA)
. Potential (MTBE-LOR)
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210.000 t/y
100.000 t/y
85.000 t/y
235.000 t/y
110. 000 t/y
Due to resources limitations or conflicts with food
markets, 2nd generation biofuels will be needed very soon
2010
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Decreasing Cost of PV Solar Cells
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PV Solar: access to energy in South Africa
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Spectacular progresses for Windmills …
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Hydrogen Challenge in Germany
Plus BMW partnership
in Munich
Station « Heerstrasse » in Berlin :
• Inauguration March 2006.
• Public distribution H2 (PV) + Private
distribution H2 (Buses BVG) (ICE & FC).
• LH2 + GH2 + Reformer GPL + 2 FCs.
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Climate Change : a worrying situation …
Global Temperature Change over 1000 years in °C,
Zero Reference corresponding to 1961-1990 period
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
0.5
0.0
-0.5
- 1.0
Données provenant de thermomètres (en rouge), de cercles
de croissance des arbres, de coraux, de carottes
glaciaires et d’enregistrements historiques (en bleu)
1 000
25
1 200
1 400
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1 600
1 800
2 000
Climate Change : what can do an Oil & Gas Company
as Total ?
Better understand the involved phenomena's, and
bring our industrial competences on possible
solutions
Better dominate our industrial operations
Better help our customers to reduce their emissions
Prepare the Energy System Evolution
Imagine and validate efficient and reliable solutions to
capture and sequestrate CO2
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Total operated flaring will continue to decrease
despite rising operated production
Total’s operated fields
Production
Flaring
No flaring on new development
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Flaring Reduction on existing fields
 Acute Monitoring of flaring
 Dedicated team
 Elaboration of Technical & Business solution
Issues discussed with Partners and
Governments
12
2012
20
10
11
20
08
09
20
20
20
07
20
05
06
20
04
2005
20
03
20
20
02
20
00
99
01
20
20
98
19
19
98
GGFR Standard & Support quite useful
Total target : -50% 2005-2012
Beyond 2012 : Efforts are to be maintained and amplified
if we want to keep reducing flaring
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
CO2 Capture and Sequestration Pilot in Lacq
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Energy Future Challenges
Oil Resources will allow to meet the demand challenge for the next 20
years …
But with some probable difficulties to keep developing the production
capacities at the necessary …
Gas, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewable will all be necessary to ease the
constraints …
As well as a growing oil specialization in white products, especially
motor fuels and petrochemicals …
At the same time, we’ll have to face the Climate Change challenge
through …
 More efficient industrial processes
 Energy efficiency for all fossil energy users
 Development of new options as CO2 capture and Sequestration
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007