Transcript Recent progress in NSSED implementation in Albania poverty reduction strategies

Recent progress in NSSED
implementation in Albania
Adrian Civici
Ministry of Finance
Conference on labour markets, growth and
poverty reduction strategies
28 May 2005  Thessaloniki
GPRS - November 2001
NSSED – December 2002
PRINCIPALS OF NATIONAL STRATEGY
•
Objective harmonization / main agenda
•
Prioritarisation of public actions
•
Albanian ownership
Priority fields
(i) improved health and education services and
(ii) improved infrastructure
Pillars
(iii) institutional reform
(iv) economic growth
Conditions for implementation
(v) macroeconomic stability
(vi) social support
NSSED Institutional structure
Steering Committee
(Chaired by Prime Minister)
Inter- Ministerial Group
(Chaired by Minister of Finance)
MoF/ DoNSSED
Technical Sector
Working Groups in
line Ministries
NSSED M&E
in line Ministries
Other Institutions involved in the process:
(Bank of Albania, INSTAT, etc)
Proportion of total expenditure (%)
Public expenditure in priority sectors,
2002-2004
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Agriculture
Education
Health
Energy
Housing and
communal services
2002
2003
2004
Social welfare
Transport and
telecommunications
Proportion of total expenditure (%)
Capital investment in priority sectors,
2003-2004
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Agriculture
Education
Health
Energy
Housing and
communal
services
2002
2003
2004
Transport
NSSED goals and achievements
Objective (unit)
Actual
Target
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
1386
1557
1950
2604
2660
GDP growth rate (%)
7.6
4.7
6.0
6.0
6.0
Budget deficit as proportion of GDP (%)
6.6
5.6
4.4
4.6
5.0
Inflation rate (%)
3.1
5.2
2.4
2.9
3.0
Growth
GDP per capita ($)
Poverty
Absolute poverty headcount rate (%)
25.4
20.0
Extreme poverty headcount rate (%)
4.7
3.0
Unemployment rate (%)
16.4
15.8
15.0
14.4
12.0
Infant mortality per 1,000 live births
17.4
17.5
15.5
15.1
15.0
Maternal mortality per 100,000 live births
22.7
25.9
21.3
12.0
15.0
Health
Measuring progress in poverty reduction
The poverty monitoring system is built on
the Living Standards Measurement Survey:
• 2002 – Estimation of poverty indicators
• 2003 and 2004 – No consumption module
Poverty trends in 2003 monitored through a model:
how did variables correlated with consumption poverty in
2002 change in 2003?
Results of FAO research team suggest that poverty rate
has fallen in 2003 – more so in urban than in rural areas
Labour market in Albania
Labour force participation according to the Census
1989
2001
Male
Female
Total
Male
Female
Total
842
758
1600
800
548
1347
Employed
71.5
63.8
67.7
60.8
35.6
48.0
Unemployed
5.7
9.0
7.3
14.0
14.1
14.1
Total active
77.2
72.8
75.0
74.8
49.7
62.1
Inactive
22.8
27.2
25.0
25.2
50.3
37.9
Total (aged 15 years +)
100
100
100
100
100
100
In thousand
Labour force (aged 15 years +)
As percentage (%)
Age of population Pyramid
80+
80+
70-74
70-74
60-64
60-64
50-54
50-54
Male
40-44
Female
Female
30-34
30-34
20-24
20-24
'10-14
'10-14
0-4
-250
Male
40-44
0-4
-150
-50
50
150
250
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
Labour market indicators
No Labour Force Survey
Unemployment rate is estimated from the records of the
registered unemployed at Employment Offices
Evidence from the Living Standards Measurement Survey
confirms that unemployment is falling
Men rather than women are more likely to benefit from
new jobs
NSSED labour market policy objectives
Strategy of employment and vocational training
Build capacity of Regional Employment Offices
8000 job mediations in 2004
Strengthen vocational training system by
expanding capacity and modernising curricula
Two vocational training centres constructed in
2004, co-financed by the budget and the CARDS
programme
NSSED labour market policy objectives
Strategy of employment and vocational training
Employment promotion projects
• Salary and social contribution subsidies over 5-7
months;
• The company has to keep at least 50-70% of subsidised
persons as permanent staff
• 3385 jobs created in 2004 at a cost of $1,070 each
Current challenges for the NSSED
Link strategic priorities to the budget
Harmonise and streamline existing planning systems:
poverty reduction, European integration,
decentralisation;
Monitoring of progress and transparency;
 Establishment of an integrated planning system
Future challenges for NSSED
Role of NSSED in Integrated Planning System
• identify pathways to national goals and set
indicators
• oversee sector and crosscutting strategies,
including indicative costing
• continue monitoring poverty for policy purposes
• advise on policy implications for MTBP
Future challenges for NSSED
• Revision of NSSED in 2006
• Ensuring sustainable growth supporting new
sources of growth;
• National consensus building / assembly
• Maintain Albanian Ownership and donor’s
coordination and development partners.