Transcript NOAA THORPEX –CLIMATE LINK SCIENCE PLANNING MEETING WEATHER April 27 2006, NCEP

NOAA THORPEX
WEATHER–CLIMATE LINK SCIENCE PLANNING MEETING
April 27 2006, NCEP
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OUTLINE
• What is THORPEX?
– International, NA Regional, US levels
– NOAA THORPEX program
• THORPEX & Climate prediction
– Background
• Distinctions & links between weather & climate
forecasting
• Overview of Weather-Climate link section of TIP
• Charge of meeting
– Plenary discussion before lunch (couple slides max)
– Break-out groups 1-3?
– Summary plenary session at end
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WHAT IS THORPEX?
10-YEAR WMO-SPONSORED RESEARCH PROGRAM
OBJECTIVE:
• Accelerate improvements in skill & utility of 1-14 day high impact weather forecasts
• Weather forecast component of GEOSS
RESEARCH AREAS:
• Observing System
• Data Assimilation
• Predictability / NWP
• Socioeconomic Applications
APPROACH:
• Enhanced collaboration on national, regional, & international levels
– Between research and operational communities
– Among experts working on four components of forecast process
– Within operational community – Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
ORGANIZATION:
• International level – Under WMO; IPO, 6 WGs, etc – Michel Beland & David Burridge
• North America – Regional Committee – Pierre Gauthier & David Parsons
• National level – US Program Office – Rick Rosen & David Parsons
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• NOAA – Under Weather & Water Goal, ST&I - Marty Ralph & Zoltan Toth
NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM
FOCUS:
• Accelerate improvements in 3-14 day high impact probabilistic weather
forecasts
ORGANIZATION:
• Under Weather & Water Goal, ST&I, with link to EMP & LFW
– NOAA THORPEX Executive Council – Rick Rosen
– NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee – Zoltan Toth
APPROACH:
• Grants – External community (12 NOAA grants)
• Directed research - NOAA Labs
• Transition to operations – Global Test Center (JCSDA link), NCEP - NAEFS
• Weather – Climate link
FUNDING:
• $1.23M (Current); $2.3M (President’s request); $5M (Goal)
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NEW THORPEX NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION PARADIGM
SOCIOECON.
SYSTEM
TEST CENTER
WEATHER-CLIMATE
LINK
USER CONTROLLABLE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
GLOBAL INTERACTIVE
FORECAST SYSTEM (GIFS)
TEST CENTER
Days
15-60
NWS OPERATIONS
GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
CLIMATE FORECASTING / CTB
ADAPTIVE COLLECTION &
USE OF OBSERVATIONS
INTEGRATED
DATA
ASSIMILATION &
FORECASTING
MODEL ERRORS
& HIGH IMPACT
MODELING
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PROGRAM
COMPONENT
Adaptive
collection & use
of observations
Integrated data
assimilation &
forecasting
User controllable
probabilistic
products
Weather-Climate
link
Global
Operational Test
Center
NOAA THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
ACTIVITIES
2006-2008*
DELIVERABLES
2009-2011
2012-2014
PARTICIPANTS/
CONTRIBUTORS*
RECIPIENT
Develop, test, and prepare for operational implementation adaptive methods for the collection and processing of observational data
GEOSS
Develop new adaptively
Test new
NCAR, UAS, ST&I
usable
platforms/sensors
platforms/sensors
Assess new platforms /
Develop new methods
sensors / methods in
NESDIS, JCSDA,
Satellite platforms
for adaptive collection &
Test new methods
optimal mix of
CIMMS, ETL
use of observations
observations
Adaptive
Improved methods for
Develop integrated
U. Miami, NRL
methodologies
global applications
adaptive observ. system
Develop, test, and prepare for operational implementation methods that integrate data assimilation and NWP forecasting procedures,
including high impact modeling
Develop
components
of
Develop & test
CDC, NRL, CIRA, UM,
Ensemble-based
Compare new system with
ensemble-based DA
ensemble-based DA
DA project
“hybrid” DA system
NCAR
system
system
Develop components of
Integrate components of
Test new system in
Model error
UM, NRL
model error
model error
various applications,
representation
representation
representation
including DA
Develop wave, ice, land
Develop adaptive gridTest new modeling
High-impact
SAIC
surface
model
based
global-to-regional
system
in global demo
modeling
components
modeling
project
Develop, test, and prepare for operational implementation new products and user procedures for probabilistic early warning of high
impact weather
Develop basic methods
Statistical postAdd downscaling
Refine/integrate
MDL, CDC, IRI
for ensembles
processing
methods
methodologies
High impact
Develop application
Provide probabilistic guidance during field &
AMMA, IPY, IRI,
applications
tools
demonstration programs
HEPEX, GIFS
Equitable use of
Study value & cost of
Develop equitable use
Develop equitable use
SIP, Stratus, IRI
resources
forecasts
plans at national level
plans at international level
Develop, test, and prepare for operational implementation jointly with the climate community an observing, data assimilation,
forecasting and application suite providing seamless forecasts for days 15-60
Compare observing
Optimize observing
Develop synergistic
Observing system
needs of weather &
network for weather &
ST&I, OGP, CTB
observing
practices
climate forecasting
climate forecasting
Study coupled oceanDemonstrate improved
Coupled
Data assimilation &
atmosphere model
skill via use of
atmosphere/land/ocean
CTB, OGP
forecasting
initialization & drift
atmosphere/land/ocean
forecast model
problems
initial conditions
applications for day 1-60
Compare weather &
Develop tools suitable
Demonstrate value of
Applications
climate forecast
for both weather &
seamless weather-climate
IRI, OGP, CTB
applications
climate forecasts
forecast applications
Integrate all research results by testing first in OSSE, then preFacilitate testing of successful candidate observing, DA,
implementation environment, prototypes of new THORPEX
modeling & application tools
NWP forecast system
Set
up
facility;
Data
Test-bed for OSE,
Serve research users; Data impact studies; Targeting
impact studies;
JCSDA
DA, NWP methods
guidance
Targeting guidance
NOAA/GIFS
operations
In-situ platforms
Observing System
Simulation
Framework
Ensemble archive
Make system accessible
to external researchers
Set up global archive
*NOAA THORPEX Funding
Test THORPEX NWP
components
Augment global, add
regional archive
Test integrated forecast
system
Augment global/regional
archives
JCSDA, SWA
NCDC, NCAR
*NOAA THORPEX Grantee
NPOESS
operations
NWS operations
EMP / NWS
Operations
NCEP Data
Assimilation
System
NCEP Ensemble
Forecast System
NCEP GFS/NAM
systems
LFW, NCEP
Service Cntrs
Hydrology
NAEFS
GIFS
EMP, LFW
GEOSS
NCEP
Operations
CPC, WFOs,
GIFS
Research
community
AMMA, IPY,
other
demonstration /
field projects
NAEFS, GIFS
NAEFS, TIGGE 6
THORPEX & CLIMATE PREDICTION – STATUS 1
• International Science Plan
– General comments & references only to climatological aspects
• Issue gained prominence after plan completed
• International THORPEX Implementation Plan (TIP)
– Section on links with climate prediction
• Concise plan, with short description of links in areas of:
– Observing system
– Data Assimilation
– Numerical Forecasting
– Socio-economic Applications
• Prepared by community of experts (January 2005)
• Approved by THORPEX International Core Steering Committee (ICSC),
02/2005
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THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
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THORPEX & CLIMATE PREDICTION – STATUS 2
• THORPEX International Program Office (IPO) Report
– Prepared for 1st THORPEX Executive Board (EB) meeting, 1-2 Sept.
2005
– Item on intersection with climate prediction
• Mel Shapiro & J. Shukla prepared proposal for development of
– Ultra-high-resolution seamless global prediction system for weather &
climate
– Advanced high-resolution data-assimilation system for weather & climate
from hrs to yrs
• Actions
– Shapiro & Shukla as lead authors, with broad authorship, prepare white
paper
– Close collaboration between GIFS-TIGGE WG & JSC task force on
seasonal forecasting
– Dave Burridge to participate in WCRP panels on modeling and
observations
• THORPEX/WCRP MJO Workshop, 13-17 March 2006
recommendations
– “Computational Lab” for organized convection
– THORPEX/COPES IOP year
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WEATHER-CLIMATE LINKAGE
• Diverse interpretations
– Different people/groups use expression in very different contexts
• THORPEX TIP interpretation based on THORPEX goal of
– Accelerating improvements in 1-14 day forecasts
• THORPEX goals related to weather-climate linkage
– Push out “weather” part from 7 to 14 days
– Interface with climate forecast community for
• Improving 10-60 day Intra-Seasonal (IS) forecasts
• NOAA’s approach to THORPEX – climate linkage
– Pragmatic - Improve Intra-Seasonal forecast skill
• Consistent with NOAA’s operational mission
– Based on International TIP document
• Need to develop associated science background
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WHAT DISTINGUISHES WEATHER & CLIMATE FORECASTING?
• Issue of definition
– Complex science questions behind
• Practical consideration
– What is source of predictability?
• Initial conditions determining dynamical forecast skill
• Weather
– Atmospheric initial conditions
• Up to 7 days
• Climate
– Ocean / Land surface initial conditions
• Beyond 90 days
• Weather-climate forecast interface
– BOTH initial conditions are important
• 10-60 days
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DISTINCTIONS & LINKS BETWEEN
WEATHER & CLIMATE FORECASTING
• Contemporaneous weather/climate forecast procedures have common basis
– Based on same scientific principles, yet
• Developed from somewhat different origins, by different scientific communities
• Somewhat different priorities due to difference in applications
• Distinction is often made depending on “lead time” of forecast:
– The same natural process is forecast
• Shorter lead time - “weather” – up to a week
• Longer lead time - “climate” – over a month
• Separate streams of weather and climate forecast procedures
– Due to different sources of predictability (atmosphere vs. ocean / land)
• Short range weather prediction, up to a few days:
– Dominated by initial condition of atmosphere
• Climate prediction, beyond 60 days
– Dominated by boundary conditions of atmosphere, ie –
» Ocean initial conditions
» Land surface initial conditions
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DISTINCTIONS & LINKS BETWEEN
WEATHER & CLIMATE FORECASTING - 2
• Prediction for 10-60 day period - No-person’s land
– Affected by both atmospheric and oceanic / land initial conditions
– Great challenge technically
• How to realistically capture sensitivities to both constraints at same time?
• What is predictable on different time scales?
– Individual events for short range
– Statistics of individual events at longer ranges
• Probabilistic approach allows for seamless suite of products
– Across different time ranges
• How to bridge the gap between weather and climate forecasting?
• Review links between weather and climate forecast procedures
–
–
–
–
Observing System
Data Assimilation
Numerical Forecasting
Socio-Economic Applications
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ADVANTAGES OF
UNIFIED WEATHER-CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
• Improved skill for intermediate ranges:
– 10-60 days, affected by both atmospheric & ocean initial conditions
• Shared scientific knowledge:
– “Cross fertilization”, exchange/use of ideas from other discipline
• Shared infrastructure and technology:
– Use same numerical forecast procedures
• Computational savings
– Run forecast system once
• Optimized jointly for weather/climate forecasting
• Avoid extra costs from running two separate systems
•
• Seamless product suite:
– Easier to achieve if forecast system is unified
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THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
Path is laid out by TIP
What are some of the issues? Next slides
How to get there? Outcome of this meeting
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OBSERVING SYSTEM SYNERGY BETWEEN WEATHER & CLIMATE COMPONENTS
• What is important for weather & climate prediction?
– Set performance measures for both applications
• For assessing impact of observations
• What are the observational needs of weather & climate
forecasting?
– Evaluate in common framework
• Observing System Experiments (OSE)
• Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE)
– Assess priorities for both applications
• Design future observing system that takes advantage of
synergies, eg:
– Adaptive observational strategy may be useful for both
• Weather – optimized for short-range forecasting
• Climate – optimized for detection of extreme events
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DATA ASSIMILATION SYNERGY BETWEEN WEATHER & CLIMATE COMPONENTS
• Real-time data access
– Critical for atmospheric data
– Ocean data must be made available similarly in real time
• Initialization of coupled system
– Current practice – treat atmosphere and ocean separately
– Challenge related to coupling of atmospheric and ocean models
• Technical issue, instabilities related to coupling procedure…
• Ensemble perturbation techniques
– “Coupled” initial perturbations needed
– Model perturbations for describing model-related forecast errors
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NUMERICAL MODELING SYNERGY BETWEEN WEATHER & CLIMATE COMPONENTS
• Test use of ensemble with cascadingly lower resolution models
– Start with very high resolution, expensive model for details at short range
– Truncate after some time, continue with lower resolution, cheaper model
– Need reforecast data set for statistical bias correction
• Use of Limited Area Models (LAM) for downscaling?
– Originates from weather forecast practice
– “Forecast” information is from coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model
– LAM specifies regional conditions consistent with global forecast
• Test use of mixed-layer ocean model as intermediate solution
– Avoid problems with full coupling
– Improve extended-range weather forecasts
• Study models’ ability to simulate/forecast intra-seasonal variability
– Unified approach potentially most beneficial for 10-60 day range
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SEAMLESS APPLICATIONS SYNERGY BETWEEN WEATHER & CLIMATE COMPONENTS
•
Study and compare weather and climate forecast applications
– Shorter lead times (1-14 days)
– Intermediate lead times (10-90 days)
– Longer lead times (60+ days)
• Exploit experience/knowledge accumulated in climate applications (eg, at IRI) for shorter ranges
• Compare economic value of weather & climate forecasts in common framework
•
Develop application methods viable at all lead times
– Common forecast format – Probabilistic information
– Seamless suite of products - Digital database
• Spatio-temporal variations differ:
– High at short,
– Low at longer lead times
• Yet ensemble offers flexible filtering (no need for additional general smoothing/filtering)
– One-stop shopping for weather and climate information is needed as
• Society becomes more sensitive to atmospheric, hydrologic, and oceanic conditions
•
Demonstrate joint weather-climate forecast applications
– Joint Demonstration projects
• How weather/climate forecast can be used in everyday decision making process
– Different sectors of society
– Different regions of the globe
• Positive results should be distributed among potential users
– THORPEX research program (out to 14 days)
• Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
• Link with climate research
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF
SEAMLESS WEATHER/CLIMATE FORECAST SUITE
Outlook
Ecosystem
Health
Guidance
Forecasts
Watches
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
Forecast
Uncertainty
Hydropower
Agriculture
Type of Guidance
Threat
Assessments
Commerce
Energy
Reservoir control
Recreation
Transportation
Fire weather
Flood mitigation
Navigation
WEATHER-CLIMATE
FORECASTING LINKAGE
Protection of
Life/Property
Lead Time
Minutes
Hours
Days
Weeks
Months
Seasons
Years
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PATH FROM THORPEX RESEARCH TO NOAA OPERATIONS
PHASE
BASIC
RESEARCH
APPLIED
RESEARCH
TRANSITION TO
OPERATIONS
NOAA
OPERATIONS
What?
Answer Science
Questions
Develop
Methods
Prepare for
Implementation
Generate
Products
Who?
External
investigators
NOAA
Laboratories
Global Test
Center / NCEP
NCEP Central
Operations
NSF, DOD, NASA
Financial Support?
NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM
NOAA NWS
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PURPOSE OF MEETING
• NOAA THORPEX Science Plan
– Result of similar 1.5-day planning meeting, Oct. 2002
– Organized around 4 major research areas
•
•
•
•
Observing system
Data assimilation
Forecasting
Socio-economic applications
– Identifies open science questions
– Determines research/development activities/tasks
– Weather-climate linkage largely missing
• Charge of meeting
– Identify most promising areas for improved 10-60 day IS forecasting
• Open science questions
• Research / development tasks
– 2-4 questions/tasks under each of the four major research areas
• Outcome of meeting will be used to
– Complete Science Plan with new weather-climate linkage section to guide
• NOAA internal research/development work
– THORPEX – Climate Test Bed (CTB) collaboration
• Possible future Announcement of Opportunities to steer NOAA-funded ext. research 24
• External THORPEX activities (US, NA Region, International levels)
PATH FROM THORPEX RESEARCH TO NOAA OPERATIONS
POSE
QUESTIONS
IDENTIFY
TASKS
PHASE
BASIC
RESEARCH
APPLIED
RESEARCH
TRANSITION TO
OPERATIONS
NOAA
OPERATIONS
What?
Answer Science
Questions
Develop
Methods
Prepare for
Implementation
Generate
Products
Who?
External
investigators
NOAA
Laboratories
Global Test
Center / NCEP
NCEP Central
Operations
NSF, DOD, NASA
Financial Support?
NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM
NOAA NWS
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NOAA THORPEX WEATHER-CLIMATE LINK MEETING TEAM
• Observations
– Ron Gelaro (NASA)
– David Behringer (EMC)
• Coordinate development of
observing systems for weather and
climate prediction
• Data Assimilation
– Jeff Whitaker (ESRL)
– Tom Hamill (ESRL)
– Ben Kirtman (COLA)
• Modeling
– Max Suarez (NASA)
– Hua-Lu Pan (EMC)
– Joe Tribbia (NCAR)
• Applications
– Randy Dole (ESRL)
– Wayne Higgins (CPC)
– Neil Ward (IRI)
• Develop unified weather-climate
data assimilation & prediction
system
• Develop tools for seamless socioeconomic applications of weather
& climate forecasts
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BACKGROUND
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NOAA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX
•
1998-99
Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists
•
Apr 2000
First International Meeting
•
Mar 2002
First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed
•
Aug 2002
NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
•
Oct 2002
NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting
•
Nov 2002
1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan
•
Jan 2003
NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee formed
•
Feb 2003
Pacific TOST Experiment
•
Jun 2003
First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity
•
Sep 2003
25 Full Proposals received
•
Oct-Dec 03
Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (ATREC)
•
Jun 2004
12 NOAA THORPEX proposals funded
•
Jan 2006
NOAA THORPEX PI Workshop
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NOAA THORPEX ACTIVITIES
RESEARCH PROJECTS:
• Adaptive collection & use of observations (PARC, OSSE)
• Ensemble-based data assimilation
• Representing model errors in ensemble forecasting
• High impact modeling (enhanced resol., sea ice / wave, etc)
• Socioeconomic applications (IPY)
Thurs am
Tue am-pm
Wedn am
Wedn pm
Thurs pm
PATH TO OPERATIONS:
• North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
– MSC–NMSM–NWS multi-center ensemble
– Operational implementation in March/April 2006
– Prototype / component of future international GIFS system
• ESMF connection
• All research must directly connect with NAEFS system
PERFORMANCE MEASURE:
• Rate of improvement doubled in NAEFS probabilistic forecast scores
–
–
–
–
PQPF
Extreme temperature
Severe weather
Tropical storm
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NOAA THORPEX RESEARCH GRANTS
Principal
Investigator
Affiliation
Length of
Award
(years)
Proposal Title
Joao Teixeira
Naval Research Lab
Model Uncertainty in Ensemble Forecasting Stochastic Physics and Truncation Error
3
Craig Bishop
Naval Research Lab
State Estimation with Huge Ensembles
3
Sharanya Majumdar
Univ. of Miami/CIMAS
3
Terry Hock
NCAR/ATD
Understanding and Improving the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Targeting
Strategy
Development of a Miniaturized in-Situ Sounding Technology for THORPEX
Milija Zupanski
Colo. State Univ./CIRA
Impact of Fundamental Assumptions of Probabilistic Data Assimilation/Ensemble
Forecasting: Conditional Mode vs. Conditional Mean
3
Christopher Velden
Univ. of Wisc./CIMSS
Improving the Impact of Satellite Data in NWP Using THORPEX Opportunities
3
Eugenia Kalnay
Univ. of Maryland
Estimation and Potential Correction of Model Errors
3
Thomas Hamill
NOAA/ESRL
An Intercomparison of Different Ensemble-based Data Assimilation Methods
3
Robert Atlas
NASA/GSFC
Establishing an OSSE Framework for the THORPEX Program and Mission Planning
3
David Chapman
Stratus Consulting
National Study of the Economic Value of Current and Improved Weather Forecasts in
the U.S. Household Sector
1
David Bacon
SAIC
Global to Local Weather Forecasting Using an Adaptive Unstructured Grid Model
2
Istvan Szunyogh
Univ. of Marylan
A Strategically New Forecast Process Based on a Local Ensemble Kalman Filter
3
3
GRANTS DISTRIBUTION
University groups
NCAR
Private sector
5
1
2
NASA
ONR/NRL
NOAA
1 (0)
2
1 (2)
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EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS:
ANIMATION
•
Why forecast signal is lost beyond 10-day lead time?
–
How can predictability be extended?
•
•
•
•
Better/more observations?
Better data assimilation scheme?
Better numerical model?
Better ensemble techniques?
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EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS:
ANIMATION
•
Why forecast signal lost at 9-day lead?
–
How can predictability be extended?
•
•
•
•
Better/more observations?
Better data assimilation scheme?
Better numerical model?
Better ensemble techniques?
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ANIMATION
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DEFINITION OF WEATHER & CLIMATE
• What is WEATHER?
– Instantaneous atmospheric and related conditions, and their
• Effects on people over short (up to couple of days) periods of time
• What is CLIMATE?
– Statistics of weather over expanded (longer than a month) periods
• Are there SEPARATE “WEATHER” & “CLIMATE” REALITIES?
– No, there is one natural process, with
• Variability on multiple spatial and temporal scales
– Both weather & climate are concepts about this natural process,
• Emphasizing different aspects of nature;
– Weather more concrete – you can directly experience at the moment
– Climate more abstract – one needs to intellectually comprehend effect
• FORECASTING weather & climate
– Predicting the same reality, “weather process”
• Sharing the same basic procedures
• Priorities differ according to focus (on weather or climate)
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THE MAKINGS OF A WEATHER FORECAST –
EVER IMPROVING, BUT ALWAYS IMPERFECT
• Assess current weather situation
– Before we can look into future, understand what is happening now
– “Initial condition”
• Digest observational information
– Bring observed data into “standard” format
– “Data assimilation”
• Project initial state into future
– Based on laws of physics
– “Numerical Weather Prediction” (NWP) model forecasting
• Apply weather forecast information
– Statistical post-processing
– “User applications”
REPRESENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY – PROBABILISTIC FORMAT
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