The Eastern Partnership

Christophe Hillion* JMWEN, University of Leiden *this presentation is based on the SEI working-paper co-authored with Prof. Alan Mayhew (JMWEN, SEI)

      Polish and Swedish initiatives Fifth enlargement (UK + Sweden initiatives) ENP shortcomings ‘Union for the Mediterranean’ Georgia PL and S initiatives endorsed by European Council, which invites the Commission to come forward with proposals   COM(2008) 823 Joint Declaration of the Prague Eastern Partnership Summit

The EaP countries

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AIMS:

– A lasting political message of solidarity, through ‘political association’ – ‘Economic integration’ involving a broader regional trade approach, i.e. the possible establishment of a Neighbourhood Economic Community inspired from the EEA ‘where appropriate’ MEANS: – New contractual (bilateral) relations: i.e. Association Agts – A new framework for multilateral cooperation – Institutional framework – New financial resources

• • • • • • • Association Agreements, i.e. beyond PCAs ‘Political association’, i.e. more than political ‘dialogue’ Gradual economic integration: towards a DCFTA Enhancing mobility, visa liberalisation ‘as long term perspective’ Multifarious enhanced cooperation (including Energy security, mobility) involving regulatory convergence with EU standards Flanking policies: eco and social developments of Partners New institutional structures: decision-making power + joint monitoring

• Thematic platforms – Democracy, good governance and stability (institution building, ESDP participation) – Economic integration and convergence with EU policies (Regional DCFTAs => NEC) – Energy security (mutual support, harmonisation, interconnectedness, diversification) – Contacts between people • Flagship initiatives – Integrated border management programme – SME facility – Promotion of regional electricity markets , energy efficiency and renewable energy sources – Development of the southern energy corridor – Cooperation on prevention of, preparedness for and response to natural and man-made disasters • New institutional framework and governance – Meetings of EaP Heads of State or Government every two years – Annual Spring meetings of EU+EE Ministers of FA – Bi-annual platforms meetings at senior officials level – – Meetings of panels supporting the work of the thematic platforms Civil society forum – Possible participation of the CoR, EESC

• • • • A combination of fresh and re-programmed ENPI fund adding up to €600 millions for EaP initiatives ENPI funding could be progressively increased from €450 Million (2008) to €785 Million (2013); i.e. need for additional €350 million of fresh funds ENPI Regional Programme refocused to sustain EaP multilateral dimension €250 million under the current ENPI envelop to be devoted to EaP initiatives • Possible Member States’ bilateral financial contributions • Ensure effective delivery and improve donor coordination (EIB, EBRD), and leverage more investment money

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The ‘enthusiast’

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The ‘skeptic’

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The ‘cynic’

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The ‘pragmatist’

 triggers new momentum in EU relations with East European Countries (EEC)  positive EU signal towards EEC  genuinely deepens EU-EEC links  shows ‘adaptability’ of EU policy towards EEC  is a comprehensive and coherent EU policy  shows EU diplomatic credentials BY  typifies that accession of new States triggers fresh ideas within the EU

 yet another initiative in an already well, if not over-furnished, EU policy towards EE  no added-value  does not address the criticisms that were formulated towards the ENP  too timid on important symbolic gestures towards EEC  the DCFTA is not workable  the multilateral dimension is not expedient, let alone viable – only the bilateral dimension is attractive and workable  resources are too limited and are unlikely to get increased after 2013  Further antagonises Russia

 essentially about addressing EU/MS security concerns  a vehicule to promote EU/MS economic interests at the smallest cost possible  a red herring to distract from the real question: i.e. membership prospect of EaPs

 the best formula the EU can offer at this stage  useful re-packaging of ENP that makes it more palatable  takes account of EEC wishes  EaP is a project based initiative with potential: towards ‘solidarités de fait’ between the EU and EEC  It leaves open the question of future relationship