Transcript Evaluation of the global EMEP model and comparisons with the OsloCTM2 model

Evaluation of the
global EMEP model and
comparisons with the
OsloCTM2 model
L. Tarrason, J. E. Jonson, M. Gauss, S. Valiyaveetil, P. Wind, I. Isaksen
EMEP/MSC-W
ACCENT Workshop, IIASA, Laxenburg, 04-05 December 2007
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
EMEP at regional scale
Horizontal resolution:Regional 50 x 50 km2
(170 x 133 cells, over Europe)
Vertical resolution: 20 σ-layers (up to 100 hPa),
10 layers in PBL
Off-line meteorology: 3-h meteorological input from
HIRLAM PS
Boundary conditions: Flexible choice (modelled or
climatological for O3)
Currently: climatological BCs +
Mace-Head ozone assimilation
Emissions: EMEP estimates
Vertical distribution by sector
GENEMIS time factors
Default VOC speciation (Middleton et al)
Land use and land classes: SEI
Chemical transport model development and evaluation for 25 years
Trademark : support to the design of policy control options
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Schematic structure of EMEP UNIFIED
Flexible choice of grid projection, domain and resolution!
Boundary, lateral and initial conditions
Meteorological conditions
Advection
SOA module
Emissions
UNI - AERO
EMEP aerosol model
14 species, 4 size modes
UNI - ACID
EMEP acidification
10 species + PPM
Aerosol dynamics
Multimono
UNI - OZONE
EMEP photochemistry
69 species, 170 reactions
PPM mass: 2 species
Dry and Wet Deposition
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EMEP at national and local scale
EMEP in local
scale:
EMEP4SE
Allow national
experts to do their
own assessments
of the origin of
local air pollution
with consistent
regional boundary
conditions from
EMEP Unified
EMEP4UK
EMEP4HR
Flexibility = Robustness
National projects in UK, Croatia and Sweden
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Extension of model domain to hemispheric scale,
first step towards global model
Polar stereographic, 100x100 km2 resolution
• performance similar to the regional
scale EMEP model
• slightly lower correlation with
primary species due to coarser
resolution (100x100 km2)
• improved performance for ozone in
Mediterranean areas and for SIA and
wet deposition – due to use of
ECMWF met. fields
• general underestimation of free
tropospheric ozone levels, need for
introduction of convective exchange
and improved stratospheric boundary
condition
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Ozone daily mean, GAW stations, hemispheric model
Minamitorishima
Tsukuba
Yonagunijima
Ryori
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Global scale model, MSC-W
• Fine resolution grid: Latitude Longitude, 1º x 1º resolution
• Meteorological data derived from ECMWF IFS T319 (1 year: 2001)
• Same model as regional EMEP model, but different grid
projection and input data
• Emissions from AEROCOM, ACCES, EDGAR/Retro, Land use MM5
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No model is better than its input data:
Global NOx (kg m-2) emissions
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July NO2 column
(1015 molec/cm2)
from GOME
(top) and the
EMEP global
model (bottom).
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Ozone EMEP stations
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Similar problems as with the hemispheric model
General underestimation of free tropospheric ozone levels
• need to implement convective exchange
• need to improve stratospheric boundary condition
• (increase the resolution in tropopause region)
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Local/regional pollution in lower
troposphere in summer?
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EMEP as service model
 Open access to model code and routine model results
 Improved internet sites
 Seminars for the EMEP model
 Visit the new data sites
at http://www.emep.int
 Enhanced flexibility of the model by allowing
 the use of different nesting techniques
 to run with different meteorology
 Enhanced evaluation of the model, including
 satellite data, in-situ data from EANET, LIDAR data
 NRT Data, contribution to GMES Fast Track Services*
 Use of data assimilation techniques (*not funded by EMEP)
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OsloCTM2
• Meteorology: ECMWF
IFS data
Transport
Chemistry
2 hPa
Bnd.Cond.: OSLO 2-D
• Vertical res.:
40 layers, surface – 10 hPa
(60 layers, surface – 0.1 hPa)
20 hPa
Stratospheric chemistry
module: 64 components
• Horizontal res.: T42, 1ºx1º
• Advection: S.O.M. scheme
• Chemistry: tropospheric and
stratospheric chemistry (incl.
het. chem. and on-line J-values)
NCEP tropopause
Tropospheric chemistry
module: 51 components
• Surface emissions: Retro/POET
• BL mixing, convective transp.,
lightning/aircraft emissions,
dry/wet deposition, …
surface
Modeled versus Observed
Daily Maximum surface
Ozone (ppbv) for selected
European stations in 2001.
Observations: black
global EMEP: red
OsloCTM2: blue
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Ryori (Japan)
Cape Point (S. Africa)
Modeled versus Observed Daily
Max surface Ozone (ppbv) for
selected GAW stations in 2001.
Syowa Station / Antarctica
Observations: black
global EMEP: red
OsloCTM2: blue
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Hohenpeissenberg (Germany)
Minamitorishima (Japan)
Modeled versus Observed
Daily mean CO (ppbv) at
different GAW stations in
2001.
Observations: black
global EMEP: red
OsloCTM2: blue
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Annual scatter plots for different sulfur compounds measured at
European EMEP stations. Units: μg(S)m−3
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Annual timeseries of daily
SO2 surface mixing ratio
(ppbv) over selected
European stations.
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Summary and conclusions (1/2)
• Further evaluation of the performance of the hemispheric and global
model is needed
– evaluation of the effect of convection on free tropospheric ozone
– need to co-operate with Asian experts on monitoring data, evaluation with
regional Asian network, in particular EANET
– explore possibilities of enhanced collaboration with the remote sensing
communities
• There is a strong need to revise and validate emission data and land
use information, especially over Asia, in co-operation with
international experts (TFHTAP, bilateral links)
• Demonstrate usefulness of EMEP (and OsloCTM2) models as links
between emissions and remote sensing.
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Megacities: The CityZen project (2008-2011)
16 partners from Europe, China, Africa (coord. met.no)
Focus on four emission hot spots:
- Eastern Mediterranean
- BeNeLux / Ruhr area
- Po Valley
- Pearl River Delta
• Detect long-term trends from satellite observations and inverse
modelling (U Bremen, CNRS). Study impact of megacity
emissions on AQ and climate and vice versa. Future scenarios
(IIASA).
• EMEP and OsloCTM2 involved together with other models
dealing with local, regional and global scales. Scale-bridging.
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