Transcript Document 7374288

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap970830.html
Physics 6 Schedule
April 3
Thermodynamics
April 5
No Class
April 10
Fossil Fuels
April 12
Times Beach Video
April 17
Video Discussion
Alternative Energy
April 19
Global Warming
April 24
Your Oral Reports
April 26
Your Oral Reports
No Lab
Friday
Since about 1980, US energy policy, as mandated by the citizens of the US, is based
on the assumption that there will be no shortage of oil for the forseeable future.
Environmental Issues
I think I’ve returned all that were handed in before spring
break.
I have several more that I got last week.
Friday of this week is the “absolute” deadline!
Did you notice some of the questions were based on fact or
straightforward calculations, but others were very open ended,
and the answer would depend on your opinions?
That was intentional, of course. There were a couple of really
loaded questions (intentionally) too.
Fossil Fuels
US Energy Budget, 2004 (USDOE, quadrillion BTU).
Fossil fuels account for over 80% of our energy input.
Imports account for about 30% of our energy input.
The impact of imported energy on our economy is (in my
opinion) greater that it might appear at first glance:
Take away imported oil and our transportation and
automobile industries collapse.
If these go, the rest of the economy goes.
Do you remember New Orleans, in the days after Katrina?
We’d better “understand” fossil fuels!
Exponential Growth
Before I talk any more about fossil fuels, I want you to see a
crude simulation of exponential growth.
And a simulation of exponential growth in use rate.
What are fossil fuels?
I’ll focus on these:
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Where do these fuels come from?
The ground! Duh.
OK, how did they get there?
From the Texas Railroad Commission’s web site*
“Before the age of the dinosaurs, steamy swamps filled with
giant trees and large leafy plants covered many parts of the
earth.”
“As the trees and plants died, they sank to the swamp bottom
where they formed layers of soggy dense material called peat.”
“Over many centruies these beds of peat became buried by
sand, clay and other mineral deposits forming sedimentary
rock.”
*Used because I judge it to be a “neutral” site in this area. Yes, they mis-spelled
“centuries.” Sorry, no time for fancy pictures.
“As the weight of the sedimentary rock grew, the water was
squeezed out of the peat and the increased heat and pressure
compacted the peat to form coal.”
“Most coal mined today is believed to have been formed about
300 million years ago.”
“The early stages of coal
formation still continues
today as trees and plants
in swampy areas die and
decay to form peat.”
A peat bog near Yorkshire, UK. You might be
able to figure out where I found the picture.
However, the process of making this new coal will take millions
of years.
“Many factors, such as time, pressure, heat and plant material
are involved in the formation of coal.”
“As these factors vary, the coal produced may have different
characteristics.”
“Because coal is used as a fuel to produce heat, it is classified
into four different types (ranks), based on the amount of heat
it produces.”
“These four rankings of coal are called anthracite (most heat),
bituminous, subbituminous and lignite (least heat). Most of the
coal mined in Texas is ranked as lignite.”
This lecture is about fossil fuels. The last three slides describe
coal formation. Oil is formed under similar conditions.
“This is disappointing. I thought when I burned coal (or gas), I
was burning fossils. Like dinosaur fossils.”
Nope, you’re burning hydrocarbons from lowly plant forms,
or single-celled “animals.”
I never said this class would be
devoid of disappointments.
“There’s no reason to worry about fossil fuel supply, because
fossil fuels are being produced even as we speak.”
True. Would you care to wait around 300 million years before
you gas up your car again?
Let’s focus on oil for a while.
You can find it under old sedimentary rocks (e.g.,
Pennsylvania, 1859).
What did “we” do for heat and light before oil?
coal
wood
peat
whale oil
oil skimmed from surfaces of streams, lakes
If you see pictures of Rolla from around or just after the Civil
War, you will notice there are no trees. Anywhere.
Civil War armies used them for campfires.
Most of the trees you see now were planted during the early
19th century (or later).
The US has long been a leading producer of oil.
Oil was a critical issue in the events leading up to World War
II, and in the conduct of the war.
In 1950, the US produced 50% of the world’s oil, dominated
the market, and set prices.
19¢ a gallon gas was everywhere.
In the mid-60’s, my two best friends and I would each chip in
a quarter for gas, and go cruising all weekend long.
Gas prices today are criminal, aren’t they? At an all-time high.
Don’t get me started on that...
I can’t help it…
This “Stuart” person has a web page with lots of interesting random useless
information, including the inflation-adjusted cost of his gas since 1979:
Until the 2006 hurricanes, gas prices fluctuated very little for
20 years.
If you still want to complain about the price of gas, read this,
or this.
End of gas price rant.
In the 1950’s, geophysicist M. King Hubbert proposed the
following rules about depletion of a finite resource:
production starts at zero
production then rises to a peak which can never be
surpassed
 once the peak has been passed, production declines
until the resource is depleted
Based on these rules he predicted that US oil production would
peak in the 1970’s and then decline… and was the target of
ridicule by other geophysicists and economists.
US oil production is documented by the Department of Energy:
US Oil Production
25
quadrillion BTU
20
15
10
5
0
1945
1955
1965
1975
year
Your thoughts on this graph?
1985
1995
2005
The second “bump” in the production curve is a result of
Alaskan oil coming on-line.
http://www.wri.org/cpi/pubs/oil-cni.html
US oil reserves:
Texas 26%
Alaska 26%
California 16%
Gulf Coast offshore 9%
New Mexico 3%
Spread out 20%
You may find different figures. That’s because the definition of
“reserves” depends on who’s doing the talking.
Again, taking data from the DOE:
90
fossil fuel
consumption
80
quadrillion BTU
70
60
50
40
30
20
oil
production
10
0
1945
1955
1965
1975
year
1985
1995
2005
The result is, perhaps, inevitable:
US Oil Imports
through 2005
30
quadrillion BTU
25
20
15
10
5
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
year
But you already know this part of the story… don’t you?
If it’s not good to import “foreign” oil, why don’t we just use
“US” oil?
We’d run out in 4 or 5 years!
A couple of “secondhand” sources of this information; I have
no reason to believe they are wrong:
http://maps.unomaha.edu/Peterson/funda/Sidebar/OilConsumption.html
http://www.hubbertpeak.com
But there’s lots of Alaskan oil. The tree huggers won’t let us
use it.
The amount there depends on who you believe. DOE says 5
billion barrels. Heritage Foundation says 16 billion barrels.
USGS says 10 billion barrels. If you take USGS figures, it would
supply the US with oil for 15 months (at mid-2001 rates).
Why don’t we just find more “US” oil?
We’ve found the “easy” oil. We’ve scoured the country. We
haven’t made any big discoveries since Alaska.
Why do oil company commercials make it sound like there’s
an abundance of oil waiting to be found?
It looks like we are going to be relying on imported oil for a
long time.
But remember, world oil is a finite resource. Will world oil
production go through a peak, just like US oil production?
Les Magoon and the Big Rollover
Les Magoon of the USGS has 35 years of experience as a
petroleum geoscientist. He presents us with this data.
The volume of oil discovered worldwide peaked around 1965.
World oil production has lagged discovery by 40 years (find it
now, “use” it four decades later).
“The Big Rollover” comes when we have pumped half the
worlds oil, and start on the downward slope…
…just like M. King Hubbert predicted a half a century ago.
When will “the Big Rollover” take place?
I wonder why the “Hydrogen Now” people are so excited
about the Big Rollover...
A lot depends on how much oil “we” really have.
http://www.wri.org/cpi/pubs/oil-cni.html#trends
Note switch in units from
quadrillion BTU to billions
of barrels.
Two big questions:
how much oil is there?
when will we reach the midpoint?
“How much” depends on who you ask.
Two US government agencies—DOE and USGS—vary widely in
their estimates.
It depends on whether you count oil you know is there, or oil
you think might be there, or oil you hope is there.
It depends on whether you count oil that is “useless” right now
because it costs too much to extract and process.
It depends on whether you count oil tied up in shale rocks. It
takes twice as much energy to extract that oil as you get when
you burn it.
My opinion, based on the hours of reading I have done, is
that economists tend to believe there is more oil still to be
produced than do geologists.
Estimates of oil reserves vary from 1 GBarrels to 3 GBarrels.
BP (world’s 3rd largest* oil company; recently merged with
Amoco) says about 1 GBarrels at the end of 2002.
*Larger oil companies: ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch/Shell.
Shell (2nd largest oil company) took a big hit a few years ago
(March 2004).
In January 2004 they revised their estimated oil reserves
downward by 20%.
In March 2004 they revised their estimated oil reserves
downward by another 20%.
So in March 2004 they had a bit over half the oil reserves
everybody thought they had in January 2004.
Heads rolled.
More news links here and here. Many more available on
Google.
Back to this slide—the Hubbert curve—which I showed earlier.
The figures in red at the right represent estimates of the total
amount of the world’s recoverable oil.
2000 GBarrels is probably reasonable (in line with BP). Even
the optimistic (2600) and pessimistic (1800) scenarios differ by
only a decade and a half in turnover year.
Before I pursue the scenarios suggested by the previous slide
further, I want to address three important questions.
 Isn’t there a lot more oil to be discovered?
 Accurate figures on oil reserves are closely-held national and
industrial secrets. The figures I have shown are reasonable
estimates. But aren’t nations likely to be “hiding” the amount
of oil they have?
 Maybe not so important, but interesting anyway: what is the
meaning of the “bumps” in the oil imports and oil production
graphs?
Isn’t there a lot more oil to be discovered?
The optimistic view: there’s lots left to discover. (I’m from
Missouri.)
The pessimistic view: we’ve found it all. Even reported
reserves are exaggerated.
The in-between view: we’ll find some more, but probably no
more giant discoveries.
As oil prices inevitably rise, harder-to-produce oil and
alternative energy sources will become more “attractive.”
Aren’t nations likely to be “hiding” the amount of oil they
have?
The next slide is a screen capture from
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm. On that web
page they give the sources for the data.
One more thing—did you wonder about the “bumps” in this
graph?
US Oil Imports
through 2005
30
quadrillion BTU
25
20
15
10
5
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
year
1980
1990
2000
2010
Skip to slide 50.
DOE gives a chronology of world oil prices…
oil embargo
Not adjusted for inflation ($25 in 2003 buys much less than $25 in 1980).
Inflation???
US Oil Imports
30
oil embargo
quadrillion BTU
25
20
15
10
5
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
year
1980
1990
2000
2010
If you adjusted for inflation…
Iranian revolution
Not adjusted for inflation ($25 in 2003 buys much less than $25 in 1980).
US Oil Imports
30
20
15
10
5
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
Iranian revolution
quadrillion BTU
25
year
1980
1990
2000
2010
Iran-Iraq war
Not adjusted for inflation ($25 in 2003 buys much less than $25 in 1980).
US Oil Imports
Iran-Iraq war
30
quadrillion BTU
25
20
15
10
5
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
year
1980
1990
2000
2010
Saudis increase production
Not adjusted for inflation ($25 in 2003 buys much less than $25 in 1980).
US Oil Imports
30
20
15
10
5
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
year
1980
Saudis increase production
quadrillion BTU
25
1990
2000
2010
Ok, end of digression on three questions.
Where is all this leading?
Oil is finite.
We’re rapidly using it (on the scale of a human lifetime).
We’re not going to “use up” all the world’s oil. We’re going to
consume the easily-recovered oil. The rest will be there, but
very expensive. As cost goes up, consumption will go down.
If someone says “we have 100 years worth of oil left,” they
probably mean that world oil reserves will be depleted after
100 years.
Although I don’t see depletion happening like this, “100 years
left” is a reasonable way to put supply and use in perspective.
Worst-case scenario…
If the US rate of oil consumption continues to increase…
…and if third world consumption rate doubles (because they
aspire to be “like” us)…*
…we could “use up” all the oil within 2 decades.
To avoid the worst-case scenario, either the US needs to
reduce its consumption of oil, or the third world needs to stay
poor (or both).
*One effect of outsourcing???
Some “years left” estimates I found when preparing these
notes for Physics 6 in Winter 2001. Unfortunately, I found
these on the web, and the links very quickly disappeared:
The American Petroleum Institute said we don’t need to worry
about oil supplies, because there was 45 years’ worth at thencurrent consumption rates.
Don’t worry? Argh!
Why this “no worry” attitude from industry?
BP (British Petroleum, since merged with Amoco) said on their
web site that there were 43 years worth of oil left.
The author of your Environmental Issues book shows an
estimate that suggests oil will “run out” around 2040.
Three rather consistent estimates, two coming from oil
industry sources.
Perhaps more reasonable is to estimate that we have 50-70
years to find replacements for all our uses of oil.
Given the fact that it often takes 50 years for fundamental
research to find practical applications, we need to get to work
on this problem now.
And by the way—it doesn’t matter what I believe or what you
believe—or what the Republicans believe or what the
Democrats believe—or what Greenpeace believes or what the
Heritage Foundation believes—when you are consuming a
finite resource, it will eventually run out.
The important questions are: when? and will you be prepared?
And why are we burning oil? (Ever heard of plastic?)
As you might imagine, not everybody would agree with the
assessment above.
This web site stated in 2003 that “predictions that oil supplies
will dry up within a few years have been common over the last
150 years.”
The idea being that if past predictions have all been wrong,
then current ones probably are too.
I don’t quite understand how people could have been
predicting 150 years ago that oil supplies would dry up,
considering the Oil Age began with the Drake Well in
Pennsylvania in 1859. According to my math, 20031859=144, so evidently predictions had been made that oil will
dry up even before people started pumping it.
Here’s the text, for our detailed consideration and study.
“29-01-03 Predictions that oil supplies will dry up within a few
years have been common over the last 150 years. The world
had produced a total of 900 bn barrels of oil by 2000 -- yet
estimates of the total amount of oil resources still in the
ground grew throughout the 20th century.
For example: In May 1920, the US Geological Survey
announced that the world's total endowment of oil amounted
to 60 bn barrels. In 1950, geologists estimated the world's
total oil endowment at around 600 bn barrels.
From 1970 through 1990, their estimates increased to
between 1,500 and 2,000 bn barrels. In 1994, the US
Geological Survey raised the estimate to 2,400 bn barrels, and
their most recent estimate (2000) was of a 3,000-bn-barrel
endowment.”
Where’s the discovery that caused USGS to raise their
estimates in 1994 and 2000?
“This is possible because the world's oil endowment is much
larger than its oil reserves -- which are identified resources
that can be economically extracted and refined using current
technology.
As new technologies increase the amount of recoverable oil,
and market prices encourage new exploration and
development, the world's total endowment goes up. But the
world's oil endowment does not include unconventional oil
resources. Oil shales, for example, could easily be as large as
14,000 bn barrels -- more than 500 years of oil supply at 2000
production rates. Nor do they include other fossil fuels, such as
natural gas and coal.
Unconventional oil resources are more expensive to extract
and produce, but we can expect production costs to drop with
time as improved technologies increase efficiency.”
This is supposed to be a lecture on fossil fuels, but I’ve been
focusing on oil.
Let’s look briefly at coal.
The US is
fortunate to have
abundant coal
supplies.
Missouri is a
major producer of
coal.
Remember this energy budget, from the start of this lecture?
Data I found preparing this lecture in 2001 showed that the US
currently has a 1500 year supply of coal, at the then-current
usage rate.
Remember our growth and use simulations?
Let’s do a coal-use simulation.
Things to be aware of:
 coal depletes much faster if it replaces oil and natural gas
 the coal that we have in abundance is low grade and
burns poorly
 the low-grade coal that we might try to gasify is in arid
regions and requires enormous amounts of water for
gasification
 oil shales are abundant too, and even more difficult to
exploit
 burning coal produces lots of CO2
Do I have a message for you?
Start investigating all possible alternatives NOW.
Why aren’t “we” doing investigating alternatives already?
 A few are.
 But when has the great mass of humanity ever looked
decades ahead and spent massive amounts of money to solve
a possible problem 50 years in the future?
I’m worried that I’m starting to sound like a tree-hugger!