Transcript Document 7369171

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Rethinking Arab Democratic Transitions
Democratic Gains
Challenges:
1- Political Islam
2- Gender
3- Alternation of Power
4- Human rights
• Limitations of Theory
• Peculiarities
• Exceptionalism
• Frequency
• close to 50 elections
b/w 1989-1999  5
per year
• Participation
• voter turnout = 80%+
• voting age lowered to
18 in many Arab states
• Contestation
• multiparty elections
• opposition field
candidates
• Habituation
• voting rights exercised
• voter rolls
• regularity of voting
Table 1. Arab Elections, 1989-1999.
1989
Algeria
Egypt
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Palestine
Mauritania
Morocco
Qatar
Syria
Sudan
Tunisia
Yemen
1990
1991
1992
ML
MP
MP
A
PL/P
PL/P
L
PL/P
MP
Year
1993
1994
1995
1996
PP
MP
ML
PP
MP
1997
MP/L
L
MP
PL/P
MP
P/P
MP/P
MP
L
MP/P
MP
MCP
PP
ML
PL/P
ML-P
MP
MP
PL
L
1999
MCP
MP/L
MP
MP/P
1998
L
PP
PP/P
MP
MP/P
PP
Country
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
Libya
Somalia
Sudan
Syria
Table 2. First ‘Wave’ of Arab ‘Democratisation’
Independence Parliamentary
Democratic Breakdown
Experiment
1936
1923
1952
1930
1921
1938
1946
1956
1957
1946
1926
1975
1951
1951
1969
1960
1960
1969
1956
1956
1958
1946
1928
1949
Table 3. Multipartyism –Yemen
Party
General People’s Congress
Yemeni Alliance for Reform
Yemeni Socialist Party
Arab Socialist Ba’th Party
Truth Party
Nasserist Popular Unionist Organisation
Nasserist Correction Organisation
United Democratic Front
Independents
Seats
121
62
56
7
2
1
1
1
47
Table 6. Party Returns According to Political Affiliation, 1993 Elections
Party
Candidates
Seats
Tendency
Islamic Action Front
36
18
Islamic
Ba’th
5
1
Pan-Arabist
J. National Coalition
4
4
Centrist
Al-Ahd
4
3
Centrist
Popular Unity
4
0
Leftist
Democratic Populace
4
1
Leftist
Social Democratic Party
3
1
Leftist
J. Communist Party
3
0
Leftist
The Awakening
2
2
Centrist
Al-Watan
2
2
Centrist
Al-Mustaqbal
2
1
Centrist
Liberty
2
0
Leftist
Du’a Movement
2
0
Liberal
Democratic Arab
1
1
Centrist
J. Democratic Progressive
1
0
Leftist
Progress & Justice
1
0
Centrist
The Party of the Masses
1
0
Leftist
Progressive Ba’th
1
0
Pan-Arabist
• 1- Political Islam
• Caveats
• Explaining the “impasse”
• Islamizing democracy? Democratizing
Islam?
• PI in the Democratic Process
Table 4. Islamic Opposition
Country
Islamic Movement
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Morocco
Palestine
S. Arabia
Sudan
Syria
Tunisia
UAE
Yemen
Islamic Salvation Front; Hamas; al-Nahda
Social Reform Organisation (al-Islah)
Muslim Brotherhood; Labor Party
Islamic Call (al-Da’wa); Muslim Brotherhood
Islamic Action Front; Muslim Brotherhood; Tahrir
Islamic constitutional Movement
Hizballah; Islamic Group
Muslim Brotherhood
Justice & Charity Association; Muslim Youth Mov.
Hamas; Islamic Jihad
Tabligh; Muslim Brotherhood
Ummah; National Islamic Party
Muslim Brotherhood
Renaissance Party (al-Nahda)
Social Reform and Guidance (al-Islah wa’l Irshad)
Yemeni Alliance for Reform (al-Islah)
Legal Status
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-
+
+
+
+
Table 7. Islamist Electoral Performance, 1985-1995
Country
Election
Year
Local
1990
Algeria
Parliamentary
1991
Presidential
1995
Parliamentary
1987
Egypt
Parliamentary
1989
Jordan
Parliamentary
1993
Parliamentary
1985
Kuwait
Parliamentary
1992
Parliamentary
1986
Sudan
Parliamentary
1989
Tunisia
Parliament
1993
Yemen
Islamist Group
FIS
FIS
Hamas
Islamic Alliance
MB-Inds
IAF
Islamists
Islamists
IAF (Turabi’s)
MTI (al-Nahda)
Al-Islah
Rank
1st
1st
2nd
2nd
1st
2nd
N/A
1st
Third
2nd
2nd
Table 5. Electoral Performance of Political Currents in Jordan, 1989 & 1993
Political Current Seats in 1989 % in 1989 Seats in 1993 % in 1993
MBJ - IAF
22
27.5
18
22.5
Ind. Islamsits
12
15
4
5
Leftists
4
5
2
2.5
Pan-Arabists
7
8.75
9
11.25
Centrist
35
43.75
47
58.75
• IAF (Jordan)  approximates a political
party
• Cadres  mostly civil not religious or both
• Democratic procedures inside front
• Alternation of leadership
• Broad consultation, deliberation &
aggregation of political preferences
• 2- Gender
• Inclusive Politics
• Away from “state feminism”
• Women and the electoral process
Jordanian National Forum for
Women -- JNFW
• Objectives: “spreading awareness among
Jordanian women of the content of the
national strategy which was ratified in
1993 and which aims to improve women’s
status, involve them in the national
development ..., and promote their legal
status and increase their participation in
decision-making…”
• “To amend legislation obstructing women’s participation in
development and enacting new legislations and
policies…emphasizing…their full participation.”
• “To create public awareness regarding the importance of
women’s roles and their status in the progress the
Jordanian society.”
• “To increase women’s participation in development and to
create job opportunities for them ...”
Jordanian Constitution
• Chapter Two
– Rights and duties of Jordanians
– I. Jordanians shall be equal before the law.
There shall be no discrimination between them
as regards their rights and duties on grounds of
race, language or religion.
• Since elections of
• Queen Noor: “I would
1997, more women are
prefer to have the
lobbying for a quota
various political
parties elect women to
system  reach
parliament in 2001
their high cadres and
this may have women
• 20% quota in the LHP
represent their parties
(16 seats of the 80-seat
in parliament.”
parliament)
• Under-represented
• Women activists reconsidering quota
system
• Tokenism within government/opposition
• Females = less than 3% of candidates in
elections
Female-Male Parliamentary Membership in Egypt
People's Assembly 1971-1990
Year
T/M
E
A
Total
%
1971
1979
1984
1987
1990
360
392
457
457
453
7
33
35
14
7
2
2
1
5
3
9
35
36
19
10
2.2
7.9
7.9
3.9
2.2
Source: Rafiqah Salim Hammud, Al-Maratu 'l-Misriyyah: Mushkilatu 'l-Had5ir wa
Tahiddiyatu 'l-Mustaqbal [The Egyptian woman: Present Problems and Future Challenges]
(Cairo: Dar al-Ameen, 1997), p.203.