Transcript Global Child Poverty PUBLIC LECTURE 26th February, 2005 David Gordon

PUBLIC LECTURE
David Gordon
Professor in Social Justice
Radical Statistics Annual Conference
Global Child Poverty
26th February, 2005
Child Poverty in the UK
The UK Government is committed to tackling the problem of child poverty. In
March 1999, the Prime Minister Tony Blair set out a commitment to end child
poverty forever:
“And I will set out our historic aim that ours is the first generation to end child
poverty forever, and it will take a generation. It is a 20-year mission but I
believe it can be done.
Man holds in his mortal hands the power to abolish all forms of human poverty
John F. Kennedy
Inaugural Address
Friday, January 20, 1961
Every blow we inflict against poverty will be a blow against its dark allies of
oppression and war.
Ronald Reagan
Second Inaugural Address
Monday, January 21, 1985
In the quiet of American conscience, we know that deep, persistent poverty is
unworthy of our nation's promise. And whatever our views of its cause, we can agree
that children at risk are not at fault.
George W. Bush
Inaugural Address
January 20, 2001
No More Hungry Children?
...within a decade no child will go to bed hungry, [...] no
family will fear for its next days bread and [...] no human
being's future and well being will be stunted by
malnutrition.
Henry Kissinger, First World Food Conference, Rome 1974
Do not weep; do not wax indignant. Understand.
Baruch Spinoza (1632 - 1677)
The Reality of Poverty
Age at death by age group, 1990-1995
Source: The State of the World Population 1998
Only the good die young? – what kills children
Cause of death for children under five
Bars show
estimated
confidence
interval
“The
world's biggest killer and the greatest cause of ill
health and suffering across the globe is listed almost at the
end of the International Classification of Diseases. It is
given code Z59.5 -- extreme poverty.
World Health Organisation (1995)
Seven out of 10 childhood deaths in developing countries
can be attributed to just five main causes - or a combination
of them: pneumonia, diarrhoea, measles, malaria and
malnutrition. Around the world, three out of four children
seen by health services are suffering from at least one of
these conditions.
World Health Organisation (1996; 1998).
Champagne glass of income distribution
The stem of the
glass is getting
thinner. In 1960
the income of
the wealthiest
fifth was 30
times greater
than that of the
poorest fifth;
now it's more
than 80 times
greater.
What is Poverty?
Jules Feiffer’s America
Low Income in Britain 1961-2003
Change in Real Median Weekly Incomes 1979 to 1996 by Decile Group at April
1998 Prices (After Housing Costs)
Income Decile
1979
£
1996
£
Change
%
Bottom 10%
81
71
-12
10-20%
104
106
+2
20-30%
121
132
+9
30-40%
139
164
+18
40-50%
157
200
+27
50-60%
177
236
+33
60-70%
199
277
+39
70-80%
227
327
+44
80-90%
263
402
+53
Top 10%
347
582
+68
Total Population
(mean)
185
264
+43
(Source: Calculated from HBAI, 1998)
Absolute Child Poverty
Absolute Poverty
After the World Summit on Social Development in Copenhagen in 1995, 117 countries
adopted a declaration and programme of action which included commitments to
eradicate “absolute” and reduce “overall” poverty.
Absolute poverty was defined as "a condition characterised by severe deprivation of
basic human needs, including food, safe drinking water, sanitation facilities, health,
shelter, education and information. It depends not only on income but also on access to
services."
Deprivation can be conceptualised as a continuum which ranges from no deprivation
through mild, moderate and severe deprivation to extreme deprivation.
Continuum of deprivation
Mild
Moderate
Severe
No Deprivation
Extreme Deprivation
In order to measure absolute poverty amongst children, it is necessary to define
the threshold measures of severe deprivation of basic human need for:
1.
2.
3.
4.
food
safe drinking water
sanitation facilities
health
5.
6.
7.
8.
shelter
education
information
access to service
Indicators of Absolute Child Poverty
Severe Food Deprivation– children whose heights and weights for their age were more
than three standard deviations below the median of the international reference
population, i.e. severe anthropometric failure.
Severe Water Deprivation - children who only had access to surface water (e.g. rivers,
ponds) for drinking or who lived in households where the nearest source of water was
more than 15 minutes away (indicators of severe deprivation of water quality or
quantity).
Severe Deprivation of Sanitation Facilities – children who had no access to a toilet of
any kind in the vicinity of their dwelling, including communal toilets or latrines.
Severe Health Deprivation – children who had not been immunised against any diseases
or young children who had a recent illness involving diarrhoea and had not received
any medical advice or treatment.
Severe Shelter Deprivation – children living in dwellings with more than five people per
room (severe overcrowding) or with no flooring material (e.g. a mud floor).
Severe Education Deprivation – children aged between 7 and 18 who had never been to
school and were not currently attending school (no professional education of any
kind).
Severe Information Deprivation – children aged between 3 and 18 with no possession
of or access to radio, television, telephone or newspapers at home.
Sample size details, by region
Number of
surveys
Number of
children in
sample
Number of
children under
18 in 2000
(in 000s)
Sample
fraction
(1 child in
every)
Latin America & Caribbean
12
235,176
193,374
822
Middle East North Africa
5
247,625
151,854
613
South Asia
4
318,361
559,615
1,758
East Asia & Pacific
8
939,662
590,621
629
West & Central Asia
8
68,585
85,559
1,247
Sub-Saharan Africa
36
666,833
317,860
477
Eastern Europe (Non-EU)
4
26,332
27,657
1,050
Developing World
77
2,502,574
1,926,540
770
Wealthy countries
0
0
223,123
-
World total
77
2,502,574
2,149,572
859
Region
Child Poverty in the World
Over one billion children – half the children in the
world- suffer from severe deprivation of basic human
need and 30% (650 million) suffer from absolute
poverty (two or more severe deprivations).
‘severe deprivation of basic human need’ are those circumstances
that are highly likely to have serious adverse consequences for the
health, well-being and development of children. Severe deprivations
are causally related to ‘poor’ developmental outcomes both long
and short term.
Severe Deprivation of Basic Human Need
•Almost a third of the world’s children have to live in dwellings with more than five people
per room or which have a mud floor.
Over half a billion children (27%) have no toilet facilities whatsoever.
Almost 400 million children (19%) are using unsafe (open) water sources or have more
than a 15-minute walk to water.
About one in five children aged between 3 and 18 lack access to radio, television,
telephone, computers or newspapers at home.
Fifteen percent of children under five years in the world are severely malnourished, almost
half of whom are in South Asia.
275 million children (13%) have not been immunised against any diseases or have had a
recent illness causing diarrhoea and have not received any medical advice or treatment.
145 million children aged between 7 and 18 (11%) are severely educationally deprived they have never been to school.
Percent of the world’s children severely deprived of basic human needs
Global Rural and Urban Absolute Child Poverty Rates
Shelter
Sanitation
Water
]
] Physical Capital Items
]
Information
Food
Health
Education
]
] Human Capital Items
]
The severe deprivations of basic human need which affect the greatest number of
children are ‘physical capital’ problems - deprivation of shelter, water and sanitation.
Whilst fewer children suffer from deprivations of ‘human capital’ – health, education
and nutrition, most of the world’s anti-poverty policies are aimed at improving that
human capital, particularly in urban areas
Child Poverty in Rich Countries
UNICEF Child Poverty League of Rich Countries
Percent of children living below 50% of median national income
Source: UNICEF (2005)
Summary of Outcomes of Child Poverty
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Outcome
Are Outcomes Associated with Poverty?
Mortality
Morbidity
Accidents
Mental Illness
Child Abuse
Teenage Pregnancy
Environment/Housing Conditions
Homelessness
Low Education attainment
School exclusions
Crime
Smoking
Alcohol
Drugs
Suicide
Child Labour
Yes, strong association with social class
Yes, strong association for most diseases
Yes, for fatal accidents (but not accident morbidity)
Yes
Yes, except sexual abuse
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Don’t Know
No
Mainly after childhood
No
No
Yes
No
Source: Bradshaw (2001)
The Causes of Poverty
Weather Map, New Internationalist
Structural Causes of Poverty
Most poverty has a structural cause, rather than being the result of an individual’s
‘bad’ behaviour or choices.
Since the pioneering studies of poverty in 19th Century (such as Charles Booth’s
in London), six groups have been identified as being especially vulnerable to
poverty •the elderly;
•the unemployed;
•sick and disabled people;
•the low waged;
•large families, and
•lone parents
In many developing countries two additional groups are also at risk of poverty:
•Landless and small farmers, and
•fishermen and women
Low Wages and Child Poverty
Source: UNICEF (2000)
Social Expenditure on Families and Child Poverty
Source: UNICEF (2005)
Income Support and poverty levels 2001/02
(defined as half mean income after housing costs)
Income Support (IS) Poverty Level (PL)
IS as % of PL
Couple with one
Child aged 6
129.95
192.06
67.7%
Couple with two
Children aged 4 & 8
162.15
223.81
72.4%
Couple with three
Children aged 3, 8, 11
194.35
265.08
73.3%
Lone parent with
One child aged 6
101.15
120.63
83.6%
Source: Piachaud & Sutherland (2001)
The Solutions to Poverty
The Price of Life?
The cost of achieving universal access to basic social services
Need
Annual cost
(US$ billions)
Basic education for all
6
Basic health and nutrition
13
Reproductive health and family planning
12
Low cost-water supply and sanitation
9
Total for basic social services
40
The Cost of Ending Child Poverty: the amount needed to
raise the incomes of all poor families with children above the
poverty threshold
The World Banks Solution to Poverty
The Washington Consensus
The World Bank has pursued the same set of anti-poverty policies for almost 40 years;
These have three elements:
•
•
•
Broad-based economic growth
Development of human capital, primarily through education
Minimum social safety nets for the poor
The World Bank has pursued these policies by rigidly adhering to neo-liberal economic
orthodoxy. (Joseph Stiglitz, 1998; 2000)
1. Privatisation – which tends to raise prices for the poor
2. Capital market liberalisation – which can allow speculators to destabilise
countries’ economies, as has happened in Asia and South America
3. Market-based pricing – which raises the costs of basic foods and fuel for the poor
and has caused rioting, particularly in South America, eg Bolivia, Ecuador and,
recently, Argentina (economists should not be provoking riots around the world)
4. Free trade – which is governed by World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules that
often severely disadvantage poorer countries
Growth is Good for the Poor?
Source: Dollar and Kraay, Journal of Economic Growth, 2002
Dollar and Kraay’s Conclusions: Did they Discover a New Law of Nature?
“Average incomes of the poorest fifth of a country on average rise or fall at the
same rate as average incomes …. in a large sample of countries spanning the
past four decades. This relationship holds across regions and income levels, and
in normal times as well as during crises ….
. This supports the view that a basic policy package of private property rights
fiscal discipline, macroeconomic stability, and openness to trade on average
increases the income of the poor to the same extent that it increases the income of
the other households in society. ….
. On the other hand, we find little evidence that formal democratic institutions or
a large degree of government spending on social services systematically affect
incomes of the poor”
Random Average Income Vs Random Income Share of the Poor
25000.00
Average Income in US$
20000.00
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
Percentage of the average Income of the bottom 20%
Are Random Numbers Good for the Poor?
R2= 0.79
Faith in the Market
“At present almost all elite Americans, with corporate chiefs and fashionable economists in
the lead, are utterly convinced that they have discovered the winning formula for economic
success – the only formula – good for every country, rich or poor, good for all individuals
willing and able to heed the message, and, of course, good for elite Americans:
Privatisation+Deregulation+Globalisation=Turbo-Captialism=Prosperity”
Edward Luttwak (1998), Turbo Capitalism
The world is plagued not so much by poverty but by a rampant “suspicion of
wealth…everywhere these ideas prevail…poverty persists and spreads”
George Gilder (1981) Wealth and Poverty
“It is the entrepreneurs who know the rules of the world and the laws of God”
George Gilder (1984) The Spirit of Enterprise
Towards the end of the century, many developing countries—China and India among them—
finally threw off this victim's mantle and began to embrace wicked capitalism, both in the way
they organised their domestic economies and in their approach to international trade. All of a
sudden, they are a lot less poor, and it hasn't cost the West a cent.
Economist editorial, 11/3/2004
"Faith is believing what you know isn't so."
Your faith is what you believe, not what you know."
-- Mark Twain
Poverty in the UK: The Solution?
“This would mean restoring to the centre of the tax system two
basic principals: the first, that those who cannot afford to pay tax
should not have to pay it; and the second, that taxation should rise
progressively with income. Programmes that merely redistribute
poverty from families to single persons, from the old to the young,
from the sick to the healthy, are not a solution. What is needed, is a
programme of reform that ends the current situation where the top
10% own 80% of our wealth and 30% of income, even after tax. As
Tawney remarked, ‘What some people call the problem of poverty,
others call the problem of riches’.”
(Gordon Brown and Robin Cook, 1983)