Transcript Document 7327733
Future Flow
Derek Woodgate
From Dystopia to Plutopia
PREPARED FOR NOVEMBER, 2010
Discontinuous change
"The future is not fixed, but it is a destination that can be reached if we pursue a sustained dialogue like the one that you will commence today, and act on what we hear and what we learn.”
- Barack Hussein Obama II, President of the United States of America
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Fear of the future 2010 2006
Two-thirds of US consumers believe the future will be worse for their children and grandchildren
(CMI, 2007)
Economic meltdown, resource scarcity, war, climate stability, terrorism and security, population growth, epidemic, civil rights, robotics, food supply, natural disasters, ethics, migration, education….
911, Katrina, avian flu, Enron, Banking bailouts, illegal immigration, cloning, globalization, Iraq War, An inconvenient Truth, school massacres, Tsunami, demise of major corporations and the new economy, tech takeover…
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America’s third world
The number of Americans who see themselves among the "have-nots" of society has doubled over the past two decades, from 17% in 1988 to 34% today.
U.S. Government Says one in six (45 Million) Americans Below Poverty
Sept. 2010
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Facing your fears “The greatest obstacle we encounter with stress and anxiety is the fear of the future. This fear has always been surging in the hearts and minds of man… It is important to decide what you are going to do with your fear and self doubt around issues of your future. Will it be the foundation of your future? Or will you transform its energy into new power to augment a future that can resolve your negativity and fulfil your dreams and desires?“
- Michael Patrick Bovenes
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The fear factor
-World population should stabilize at about 12.4 billion in 2035 or 14 billion people in 2100 from 6.5 billion today - Increasing need for water - billion cubics in 1995, 3300 B in in 2020 - World cereals demand - 6 Trillion Kcal in 1970 to 25 T Kcal - Decreasing sea thickness; 40% in 40 years gone in next 50 (?) - Lack of equity amongst social groups - Number of known terrorist organizations: 154 By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods and drought (The Stern Report) Environmental refugees forecast to rise from 30M in 2004 to 50M in 2010 and 150M by 2050 (Worldwatch Insititute) By 2080, 3.5 billion people will be at risk from severe water shortages and drought Global warming could contribute to more than 300,000 deaths and 10 million illnesses annually by 2030 (World Health Organization and the University of Wisconsin at Madison) By 2080, Climate change could bring major water shortages for over a Billion in Asia / South America and threaten 1.1Bn to 3.2Bn people globally The World Bank estimates that
demand for food
will rise by 50 percent by 2030,
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What a difference a decade makes!!!!
“Now is the time to choose – The present trends in the United States show that the pessimistic scenario is rapidly upon us unless we soon shift our educational priorities and cultural goals. The optimistic scenario is completely realizable if such changes are made now. The window of opportunity is in the decade of the 1990s. If we do not choose, our children may not be able to have such choice.”
From Gordon L. Anderson’s chapter The United States in 2044 (page 251), The World of 2044 – Technological Development and the Future of Society, edited by Charles Sheffield, Marcelo Alonso, Morton A. Kaplan (PWPA, 1994).
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Future Flow 2010
Future Flow is about creating a path towards our anticipation for a positive future. The book deals with creating the future we want and expect in a world where our media and frequently even our realities enslave our minds with visions of impending doom.
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High impact Challenges and concerns
Economic meltdown Lack of equality amongst social groups / poverty Climate change, Resource scarcity and sustainability Terrorism and Wars Emerging technologies (cloning, bioengineering, etc.) Population explosion and aging Food supply Natural disasters Epidemics Ethics Immigration & migration Education Health Social disruption Transformation of humankind 9
Stairway to Heaven
For every challenge there seems to be a solution:
Nanotech for energy efficiencies Fuel cells and renewable energy Human augmentation, cognition and upskilling Graphene replacing chips / neuro / quantum computing Photovoltaics and eco cities Alternative habitats Food substitution and virtual water Data walls and complex networked communities Even transhumanism and the Singularity
Then, there is the other reality….
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Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened?
“Dr. Doom” - Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital in 2006:
“too much consumption and borrowing and not enough production and savings…economy 70 percent consumption, you can’t address those imbalances without a recession.”
- from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2008, Americans lost $6.9 trillion in wealth in the stock markets. Gravest economic crisis since the Great Depression. Greed is seen to have been at the centre of the storm. Greed, supported by slack regulation that had its origin in excesses in the U.S. housing and mortgage markets - toxic loans and foreclosures. - collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market - 10% unemployment (projected 8% in 2014) - $13 trillion debt (Public debt to GDP debt ratio)
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Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened?
Dynamism has been in decline for a decade - we just did not notice (due to housing bubble) Stifling patent system Quarterly results focus vs. long-term value creation Financial system averse to funding business innovation
Edmund Phelps and Leo Tilman (Harvard Business Review)
Top 1% of Americans saw their real income rise 700% between 1980 and 2007 while the real income of the median family increased only 22%. Top executives received 440 times as much as the average person in the bottom half earned, nearly doubling the gap from 1980.
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Economic Meltdown: What the Hell Happened?
Austin - the third most recession proof city in the U.S. The Brookings Institute analyzes the health of America’s 100 largest metropolitan economies, or is it?
The Great recession is over
Markets aren’t efficient
W-Shaped Recovery
Bank Lending Won't Come Back soon
Dollar Decline
Inflation Will Be Controlled
Uncertainty Will Create Volatility
High unemployment to stay
For every one-percentage-point increase in the national unemployment rate, the starting income of new graduates fell by as much as 7 percent.
– Lisa Kahn, Yale
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What’s in a Dream?
Back Britain – IMF bail-out The Revolutions of 1968 16 years under communism in Ex-Yugoslavia The break-up of states The dot-com boom and bust The US economic meltdown “The Chinese Dream”
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So what about the American Dream?
Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness?
Redefine our social values Community vs. the individual Eradicate U.S. ”third world” Real cost of sustainability Reconsider “hyper capitalism” Social projects Rediscover the intangibles Leverage “American” skills in entrepreneurship Look for unique innovation Avoid protectionism
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Understanding the value of a dystopia
“You must have chaos within you to create a dancing star.”
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Frederic Nietzsche
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Shift from a Dystopia to Plutopia
Subvert assumptions Peel away the surface – experience the outcome Revisit values and signifiers Play with fracture, impact points and disruption Reconstruct the dystopian reality, paradoxes, hybrids Change perspective and conceptual relevance Add events and potential wildcards
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Create you own Plutopia
It’s not about predicting the future, but creating it.
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