Transcript Global Earth Observations Charles F. Kennel Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography January 2004

Global Earth Observations
Charles F. Kennel
Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
January 2004
With thanks to Lisa Shaffer, John Orcutt, Larry Smarr, Ed Frieman
Humans have transformed the earth
in the last 50 years
City Lights from Space
Water, ozone, global air pollution, climate change, ecosystems
Predicting climate on seasonal-tointerannual timescales
• “Understanding climate variability on seasonal-tointerannual timescales … offers some of the most direct
benefits … In particular, better prediction of
precipitation is of special interest for water and energy
resource management, agriculture, and a variety of
other factors related to general human well-being.”
Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade,
NRC, 1998
Biology and biogeochemistry of ecosystems
“The ecosystems of the world are critical foundations of human
society. People depend on ecosystems extensively for goods and
services,… such commodities as food, construction materials, and
pharmaceuticals. …[H]umanity’s dependence on the biosphere for
climate regulation, air quality, and clean water has … become starkly
apparent.”
Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade,
NRC, 1998
Decadal-Century Climate Changes
“…Determining the role of anthropogenic
forcing is inseparable from understanding the
natural system. … specifically, greater
knowledge is … needed of tropospheric
aerosols and the carbon cycle. … The
subtlety of slow change over long timescales
… can disguise its potential long-term
severity and thus society’s willingness to
address potential problems in advance.”
Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for
the Next Decade, NRC, 1998
Change in the Chemistry of the Atmosphere
“Atmospheric chemistry provides the scientific
foundations to understand a number of phenomena
that are part of global change … includ[ing] … changes
in UV dosage at the Earth’s surface, … change in acid
levels of deposition in a variety of ecosystems …Work
on the chemistry of the atmosphere provides hard
examples of how the scientific method can succeed in
guiding public policy.”
Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade,
NRC, 1998
Human Dimensions
“The human consequences of
global change are due at least as
much to the social systems that
produce vulnerability as to the
environmental changes
themselves. …”
Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the
Next Decade, NRC, 1998
Earth System Science
• In addition to dealing with eons past, earth science has a
new focus on the geological here and now- predict the next
hundred years.
• We are creating an interdisciplinary panorama of the earth as
it is today and as it will be tomorrow.
• We are taking into account the human activities that
influence earth’s systems
• Earth system science can now make useful forecasts in fields
beyond weather
• The entire enterprise requires an earth observing system of
global scale
Global Earth
Observing System
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Human Architecture
Multi-Sensor Networks
Cyber-Infrastructure
Decision-Support Systems
Human Architecture
• Global Change Research Act of 1990
– Calls for “global measurements, establishing worldwide observations
necessary to understand the physical, chemical, and biological
processes responsible for changes in the Earth system on all relevant
spatial and time scales,” as well as “documentation of global change,
including the development of mechanisms for recording changes that
will actually occur in the Earth system over the coming decades.”
• International Global Observing Strategy
(OSTP, July 17, 1995)
– “The Global Observing System would be an internationally
coordinated system of mutually funded experimental and operational
space-based and in situ data acquisition, archive, and distribution
systems and programs for earth observations and environmental
monitoring.”
Human Architecture
• Declaration of the Earth Observation Summit
“We, the participants in this Earth Observation Summit
held in Washington, DC, on July 31, 2003 … Affirm the
need for timely, quality, long-term, global information as a
basis for sound decision making.”
• Observing the Future: Industry Meeting on Earth
Observations, January 28, 2004
Multi-Sensor Networks
• Remotely sensed and in situ
• Spacecraft, aircraft, ships,
moorings, floats,
• Radars, lidars, physical, chemical
and biological sensors…
• Oceans, atmosphere, land, ice
• Global to regional to local
NASA’s Earth Sensorweb
The Earth Sensorweb Concept Involves Satellites Working In
Intelligent Constellations, Adapting To Observed And Modeled Changes
And Delivering Tailored Information Products From Space To Science Users
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NSF
Ocean Observatory
Networks
NOAA/DOD/NASA
National Polar
Orbiting Operational
Environmental
Satellite System
(NPOESS)
Cyber-Infrastructure
Information management and architecture
Geospatial
Computing
Modeling
Communications
Cyber-Infrastructure Enabled Science & Engineering
NSF Report on Revolutionizing Science and Engineering through Cyber-Infrastructure
(Atkins Report) www.communitytechnology.org/nsf_ci_report/
High-performance computing
for modeling, simulation, data
processing/mining
Humans
Individual &
Group Interfaces
& Visualization
Instruments for
observation and
characterization.
Global
Connectivity
Physical World
Facilities for activation,
manipulation and
construction
Collaboration
Services
Knowledge management
institutions for collection building
and curation of data, information,
literature, digital objects
Beyond Indicators to Decision-Support Tools
If we connect GEO to effective
decision support systems, then it will
become a principal tool for achieving
sustainability on a global scale.
Global Observations - Global Decisions
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Food
Energy
Poverty alleviation
Human health
Species and ecosystems
Water
Economic growth and equity
Population
Global Observations - Local Decisions
• Avoid loss of life and property
from severe events and natural
hazards
• Longer-term risk management
• Infrastructure management
• Resource allocation decisions
– Finance and budgeting:
understanding seasonality;
anticipating emergency
preparedness and response
• Siting of facilities
• Design and landscaping: water and
energy use
• Construction and property
maintenance, engineering
• Public relations/
marketing/communications
• Operations: when to plan
production; to harvest; to schedule
promotional events
• Regulatory compliance
• Travel and routing
• Emergency preparedness
-- derived from NOAA report on
Tourism by Mary Altalo et al, SAIC
2002
Climate variations…
El Nino
North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)
…affect energy…
supply
demand
…and therefore decisions.
Environment vs. Hydropower
Urban vs. Agriculture
Long term contracts
vs.
Spot market
Why does California need observing
systems?
• Improve energy management
• Forecast changes in water
availability
• Forecast water quality at
California’s beaches
• Management of coastal resources
From Global Ocean Data To People’s Lives
Data Assimilation
Altimetry
XBT
Ocean Heat/freshwater
Storage
Feedback To
Atmosphere
Climate/weather
Predictions
Information about Agriculture,
Sea Level, Health
Short Term Climate and Energy Consumption
Big events can change load by 500 MW (>1% of total). Direct cost of this
power: $250K/breeze day (~40 days/year: ~$10M/year)
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Sep 25, 2002: No delta breeze; winds carrying hot air down California
Central valley. Power consumption high.
California Energy
Security Project:
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Delta Breeze
Tim Barnett,
David Pierce
Scripps Inst. Oceanography
University of Washington
Georgia Inst. Tech
PacifiCorp
SAIC
California Energy
Commission
California ISO
San Diego Gas & Elec.
SoCal Gas
Sep 26, 2002: Delta breeze starts up; power consumption drops
>500 MW compared to the day before!
Water-Energy interaction
Climate
Forecast
Energy Supply
Forecast
Water Supply
Forecast
Public and Private
Stakeholders
A small
temperature
change could
mean a big
change in water
availability
from the Sierra
Nevada
San Diego Coastal Ocean Observing System:
Monitoring the Health of San Diego Coastal Waters
California
Clean Beach
Initiative
Partners academic
scientists (SIO) with
end users (City of
Imperial Beach,
County Department
of Health, Regional
Water Quality Board)
Combination of HF
RADAR
CURRENTS with
OCEAN COLOR
satellite data
2/5/03
70 % decline of Zooplankton
biomass with 1.2 – 1.4 ºC warming
& increased thermal
stratification
Roemmich and McGowan
High resolution spatial maps of fish egg
distributions used for resource
management
black = sardine eggs
red = anchovy eggs
Checkley et al.
Evolving Role of the Science Community
Originating science, creating models, & developing observing technologies
Designing observing strategies and systems
Transferring designs, technologies,
models, and tested systems to the public
and private sectors
Partnering in the governance and
management of long-term observing and
decision support systems
Infusing new objectives and technologies
into on-going systems
Linking new capabilities to new users
Universities are becoming more multi-disciplinary
and service-oriented
New Management Concepts are Required
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System of systems
Multi-sector consortia
Standards
Interoperability
Open communication
Evolving, adaptive
The Grand Convergence
The convergence of earth science and
information technology will lead to continuous
awareness of earth’s systems and their
interactions with human activities.
We will use continuous awareness to manage
our resources and environment, and our
response to disasters
Continuous awareness will promote integrated
responses to emerging global environmental
challenges
Observe Globally
Model
Regionally
Act
Locally
Model
Regionally
Observe Locally
Think
Globally
What we do in the next fifty years will determine our
Girl on beach,
next environmental
10 years ….
planet's
destiny
What we do
in the next ten years
will determine
what is possible
in the next fifty