Transcript Document 7280131

ROMANIA
NATIONAL COMMISSION FOR ECONOMIC FORECASTING
Ex-ante impact assessment
support for public policies evaluation and
sector forecasting substantiation
authors: Dana Plăvicheanu,
Remus Carteleanu
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Introduction:
 Romania continues the social and economic reforms as a new
Member State since January the 1st 2007.
 The main goal of the reform’s conception and promotion is
to ensure a high economic growth which should allow to reach the
European medium standard of living within 15-20 years;
 The Romanian Strategy regarding the development of the
Public Policy System took into account the recommendations of
the Mandelkern Final Report for a better regulation to achieve a
more efficient administration at both levels (the national and
European level).
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 The reforms elaboration, implementation and monitoring
have a complex institutional and organizational work frame which
ensure their coordination, evaluation and efficiency;
 Promotion of Public Policies is a necessity for the reforms
intensification to reach the following goals:
1. Maintaining and improving the macroeconomic equilibriums;
2. Accelerating the development rate for reduction the socio economic gaps;
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Continuing reforms – a necessity for Romania
 Romania, as a new Member State of the European Union, still has
carrying on reforms (for administration and justice);
 From the economic point of view, there still are unfinished actions,
such as the property rights situation;
 The inter-regional gaps and also those regarding the EU
medium level are more accentuated in comparison with other European
states;
 Romania participates at the European common budget for the first
time and has less experience not only in promoting projects but also in
accession of a significant European assistance;
 An efficient use of long term internal development could not be
supported only by reforms.
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 General concept of medium term reforms is already stipulated
and configured in:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Strategic Frame;
Convergence Program;
National Plan of Reforms;
Post-Accession Strategy;
Sectorial-Operational Programs;
 Application of the strategic reforms objectives and directions
is made by Public Policies.
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 The necessity of the Public Policies drawing up system
development is underlined also at the EU level through Lisbon
Strategy, in which the Member States are able to:
1. use the budgetary planning of the Public Policies on
medium and long term;
2. use the EU initiatives for a better regulation;
3. use the impact assessment of the Public Policies;
4. improve the consultations with the civil society
structures for drawing up the Public Policies.
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The Public Policies tools:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
a wide range of planning and forecasts methodologies;
procedures of public policy decision making;
analysis of the problems;
the development of the solving ways;
the effects assessment due to alternative solutions;
choosing the resources;
implementation planning;
monitoring and assessment.
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 Public Policy Planning Model where the macroeconomic
impact plays a very important role .
General objective
Specific objective
Operational objective
Macro-impact
results
The Public
Policy results
(Outcomes)
The actions results
(Outputs)
Performance indicators
Function of the process:
•Investment indicators
•Benefit indicators
Function of the methods used:
•Economic indicators
•Efficiency indicators
•Effectiveness indicators
•Services quality indicators
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 Public Policies process is highly linked by the forecast
phenomenon and because of the economic changes, the
forecast has a higher level of relativity.
 The forecast methods (for example – alternative modeling)
are also used in the ex-ante evaluation because we can draw up
only the impact or the consequences of the previously defined
factors – it results an anticipation exercise of the future events
which is supposed – these are the forecasts’ effects of the proposed
action.
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 Types of the forecasts’ methods
FORECAST METHODS
Expert
Methods
Facto-graphical
Methods
Statistic
Surveys
Regression
Extrapolation
Simulation
Monte-Carlo Method
Analogical
Historical
Mathematic
Interview
Brainstorming
Delphi Method
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Ex-ante impact assessment
 Is an activity made at the beginning of the Public Policy
formulating process.
 The key-factor is represented by establishing of what
has to be estimated or evaluated.
 It has a direct link with the forecast methods through
the modeling exercise.
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 The place of the ex-ante impact assessment in the decision
making cycle of the Public Policies.
Public Policy
Evaluation
Public Policy
Monitoring
Public Policy
Implementation
Issue identification
Ex-post
evaluation of
Public Policy
Public Policy
Formulation
Public Policy
Approval
Preparing the regulation projects
Ex-ante
Impact assessment
of Public Policy
Ex-ante
Impact assessment
of regulations
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 Ex-ante impact assessment of the Public Policies is a collection
of tools and methods used in the planning level during the
preparation of the Public Policies documents.
 The goal is to identify the main social-economical
consequences which could come after the implementation of a
public policy and also to the society reaction in this way.
 Ex-ante impact assessment could be divided in more stages.
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 The main stages:
1. Defining the resources and the results for the
alternative solutions;
2. Analyzing the resources and results;
3. Impact assessment for alternative solutions;
4. Analyzing the beneficiaries;
5. Identifying the criteria of decisions making;
6. Setting the weight of every criteria;
7. Drawing up of the alternatives in compliance with the
identified criteria;
8. Identifying the best alternatives;
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 Concerning the area of the approached problem within the
public policy, there is the possibility to make a general or detailed
ex-ante impact assessment.
1. General ex-ante impact assessment is an estimation procedure
which used the approach through the qualitative evaluation method.
2. Detailed ex-ante impact assessment use the approach through
the quantitative evaluation method for identifying the possible
socio-economic consequences.
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 Quantitative evaluation methods are used for the
detailed impact assessment (in exceptional cases):
1. Cost-Benefit Analysis;
2. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
 Cost-benefit analysis is used just for the drawing up of:
1. Large and expensive policies;
2. Investments projects on long term;
3. Governmental interventions in the commercial
activities;
4. Privatization of the goods which are in the public
property.
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The Romanian experience in the Public Policy field
 Setting up of the Public Policy Units within the General
Secretary of the Government.
 Setting up of the Public Policy Units within every ministry of
the public administration.
 Adoption of the 775/2005 Government Decision for the approval
of the Regulatory regarding the procedures of decision making,
monitoring and drawing up the public policies at the central level
by which the ministries are asked to make public policies proposals
in a specific format for all the important legal documents before
their evaluation.
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Strategy for Public Policies evaluation
Strategy
Strategy
Reasons exposal/
Informative Note of the projects
Medium term/
Short term
Plan
Existing Informative Note
of the rules projects
Program
Plan
Existing PPP
Memorandum
Informative Note
Public
Policies
Proposals
(PPP)
Memorandum only for adopting
decisions which come
from international treaties/
Negotiations mandate of different
kinds of international treaties
Informative Note
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 National Commission for Economic Forecasting (NCEF)
which is a governmental body with competence in macroeconomic
prognosis according to the “Government Decision regarding the
CNP functioning”, is also charged with the impact assessment on
the economic field, among many others tasks.
 Within NCEF, there is a Unit for analyzing and evaluating the
macroeconomic implications of the public policies which releases
impact studies (study cases) of the effects evaluation of the public
policies and also for the ex-ante and ex-post impact assessments.
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 There is an important connection between the impact
analysis referring to the public policies and the macroeconomic
forecasting (prognosis).
 Being a complex institution, NCEF plays an important role
in analyzing and drawing up the impacts (study cases, etc) by
using its sectorial forecasts which have a significant role in the
expert analyses.
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Interdependence between the ex-ante assessment
and NCEF prognosis
Real study cases:
The main policies and effects:
Influenced macro indicators:
Introduction of the
• By diversifying the social security
private pension system system give the citizen the possibility
to extend the insurance over the
compulsory one;
• Ensuring an additional income over
the receiving one through the public
pension system;
• Ensuring an in-flow capital on the
internal market;
• Increasing the citizen’s saving rate.
• GDP
• Gross Capital Formation
through the increase in
population saving;
• Reduction the pressure of the
population’s disposable
incomes on the consumption
demand (with implications on
inflation and external demand).
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Real study cases:
The main policies and effects:
Influenced macro indicators:
Reduction of the
social security
contribution
• Reducing labor costs means
competitiveness increasing;
• Increasing the profits allocated for
investments;
• Reducing the quota paid by
employees leads to the increase in
purchasing power (real wages);
•Reduction of both the labor
cost and the total cost with
impact on the production and
consumption prices;
• GDP;
• Employment increase;
• Real wages increase;
• Reduction of the budgetary
incomes;
Increasing of the gross • Dimensioning the monthly
minimum wage per
complete minimum consumer basket
country
of goods and services provided for a
good living accepted by society;
• Dimensioning the social
performances and others which are
based on the minimum wage level.
• Wage gain;
• Inflation;
• Employment rate;
• Population consumption;
• Unit Labor Cost.
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Real study cases:
The main policies and effects:
Influenced macro indicators:
Environmental taxes
• Increasing the funds in order
to access more European funds;
• Ecological reasons;
• GDP;
• Inflation;
• Increasing of budgetary
incomes.
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Thank you very much for your attention!
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