Transcript Pierre Dubreuil Restructuring of the Meteorological Service of Canada

Restructuring of the
Meteorological Service of Canada
Weather and Environmental Prediction function
by
Pierre Dubreuil
Director General
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Meteorological Service of Canada
Environment Canada
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
1.
Restructuring of the
Meteorological Service of Canada
Weather and Environmental Prediction function
Restructuring and refocusing of forecast offices
SCRIBE
Air Quality Modeling Activities at CMC
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
•
Restructuring of forecast offices
Reduction of total cost by 20%
From 14 Weather Centres to 5 Storm Prediction Centres (SPCs)
About 180 staff asked to move
25 forecasters each SPC for public and marine warnings and forecasts
TAFs concentrated in two SPCs; 80 forecasters
Stronger national control on tools
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
•
Refocusing of forecast offices
Automation of routine forecasts
Digital forecasts with SCRIBE
Greater emphasis on high impact weather
Much greater emphasis on science technology transfer and continuous
learning for forecasters:
 20% off shift
 Small national labs colocated within each SPC
 “SOO” equivalent position
 COMET partnership
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
SCRIBE
an overview
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
SCRIBE overview
Knowledge Base System
MODELS
CONCEPTS
MATRICES
Direct model
output
Forecast weather elements
at sample points
numerical synthesis
of matrices content
Statistics
More than 700 points
in Canada
specific format
final products
ready for delivery
to clients
user tailored formats
editable via interface
Climatology
Analyses
PRODUCTS
0-h to 144-h
projection time
3-h time resolution
CMC
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Region
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Matrices content
•
Statistical guidance :
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
spot time temperatures (UMOS/PP)
max / min temperatures (UMOS/PP)
probabilities of precipitation (PP)
spot time total cloud opacity (PP)
UV Index (PP)
Winds (UMOS)
Climatological parameters
–
–
max / min temperatures
precipitation frequencies
Regional Model: 0 to 48 h
Global Model : 0 to 144 h
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
NWP model outputs :
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
3-h precipitation amounts
• total / convective
Showalter index
vertical velocity at 850 hPa
conditional precipitation type
surface dew point depression
thicknesses
winds (gusts)
surface temperatures
total cloud opacity
diagnostic probabilities of
precipitation
temperatures at h 0.97
dew point depression at h 0.97
freezing spray
sea state
sea surface temperature
ice cover / snow depth
Concepts
• Weather events occurring over a period of time
• results of the numerical synthesis of the weather element matrices
content
• examples :
– rain event beginning at time T1 and ending at time T2
– sky cover going from CLEAR to OVERCAST between time T3 and
time T4
• coded according to specific codification standards
– context free grammar based upon Backus-Naur notation form
– METEOCODE
• translate the weather element matrices into “objects” that can be
displayed for editing
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Concepts why ?
• translate raw data into “objects” that can be manipulated
• data reduction process
–
–
–
–
synthesis of data
eliminates meaningless features
makes decision even if data may be inconsistent
allows to speed up editing process
• pre-analysis of data before generating forecast products
• assign attributes to weather events that will be used in the forecast
product generation process
• necessary step between raw data and products
• simulation of forecaster thinking process
• constitutes the weather element database
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Examples of products
FPCN11 CWVR 291800
FORECASTS FOR COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC WEATHER
CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 10 AM PST TUESDAY 29 FEBRUARY 2000
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AT 4 PM.
GREATER VANCOUVER.
TODAY..CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MIDDAY. HIGH 9.
TONIGHT..OVERCAST. LOW 2.
WEDNESDAY..CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WINDY AT TIMES. HIGH 8.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN PERCENT 70 TODAY. ZERO TONIGHT AND
70 WEDNESDAY.
.
.
.
TEXTS
CENTRAL COAST.
TODAY..CLOUDY WITH SUNNY PERIODS AND A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MIDDAY.
PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH 7.
TONIGHT..INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE EVENING THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDY AT TIMES. LOW 3.
WEDNESDAY..CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING IN THE
MORNING. WINDY. HIGH 8.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN PERCENT 60 TODAY. 30 TONIGHT AND
100 WEDNESDAY.
CRQC11 CWUL 271300
19980527 01 24 12 000 99010 XXXXXHXX
19980527 02 20
9 000 99010 XXXXXHXX
19980527 03 18
8 000 99010 XXXXXHXX
19980527 04 20
9 000 99010 XXXXXHXX
19980527 05 18
9 000 99010 XXXXXHXX
19980527 06 18
9 000 99010 XXXXXHXX
19980527 15 23 12 000 99010 XXXXXHXX
19980527 16 23 12 000 99010 XXXXXHXX
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
24
27
25
27
26
26
28
28
9
12
11
12
12
12
15
15
003
003
003
003
001
001
000
000
22030
99010
99010
99010
99010
99010
99010
99010
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
22022H23
22030H20
22022H20
22030H20
22030H17
22030H17
22030H14
22030H14
TABLES
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Air quality
modeling at CMC
an overview
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
CMC Air Quality Mandate
• Mandate:
– Support Air Quality Prediction Program modelling and research
– (for the last 4 years)
– Support/perform policy scenario modelling and analysis (for the last 2
years)
– Support EC regional modelling groups (through technology transfer
and national coordination)
– (for the last 2 years)
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Models and tools
•
2 Canadian photochemical models
– CHRONOS: optimized for forecasting
– AURAMS: full science, highly detailed, more chemical species are simulated
then CHRONOS
•
Initial products from chemical data assimilation activities
– Objective analysis for ozone (O3)
– Initial prototype for ground-level O3 assimilation in CHRONOS to be tested
this summer
•
Forward and back-trajectory models
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Population data
Econometric data
Land-use data
Geophysical
data
National
Emission Inventories
(Cdn, U.S.)
Meteorological
observations
Canadian Emissions
Processing System (CEPS)
(point mobile
area
biogenics)
GEM
(prognostic
meteorological
model)
Regional PM Model
(CHRONOS or AURAMS)
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
PM2.5, PM10
Concentration Fields
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Applications
• CHRONOS:
– 48 hr forecast
– Real-time policy scenarios (7 runs per day with different emissions
fields)
• AURAMS:
– Emissions reduction scenario analysis
– Experimental 48 hr forecast (every day at 00 UTC)
– Modelling support for field measurement campaigns
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Example CHRONOS output
6h maximum
of ground-level
ozone for 00 UTC
on Aug. 16th 2002
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Example AURAMS output
Ozone and PM2.5 mass forecast for May 29, 2003 (20Z)
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Real-time policy CHRONOS runs
7 daily runs of
CHRONOS with
different emissions
fields input
The yellow sections in
the image show the
regions where the
emissions are turned
for each run
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Policy scenarios with AURAMS
Evaluation of the
impact of proposed
regulations on air
quality in year
2010 or 2020 based
on 1995 conditions
Difference between
AURAMS simulations
in 2010/2020 and
1995 is used to
evaluate the impact
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
Blue colors indicate reduction in particulate matter
concentrations in 2010 and 2020 from 1995 levels
Objective analysis of ground-level ozone
CHRONOS trial field
Analysis increment
+
Ozone objective analysis
• Was available internally in 2003
• Will be available to the public
for the first time in summer 2004
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien
=
Merci
Thank you
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
Canadian Meteorological Centre
Environnement Canada
Service météorologique du Canada
Centre météorologique canadien