Transcript Document 7212813

Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
Korean Technology Foresight for
S & T Policy Making
Byeongwon Park* & Seok-ho Son
Technology Foresight Center
Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korea’s S&T has achieved
remarkable growth during the
last half century.
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Past and Present of Korea’s S&T
World 8th Power in S&T by 2025
Technological
Competitiveness
2nd (IMD, 2005)
7th(WEF, 2005)
SCI Paper
19,279(2004)
55% (since 2000)
# of Researcher
156,220 FTE
44% (since 2000)
US
Patents
4,428
34% (since 2000)
Corporate Research
Institutes
10,270(2004)
44% (since 2000)
R&D
Budget
28,774(milliom US$ PPP)
56% (since 2000)
New S&T
Administration
Since 2004
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Government R&D in Korea
Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05)
Rest of
Ministries
(Defense,
Agriculture,
Transportatio
n,etc.)
MOCIE : Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Energy
MOST : Ministry of Science & Technology
MIC : Ministry of Information & Communication
OSTI: Office of Science & Technology Innovation
MOCIE : 19% for Industrial
Technology Development
MOST
: 19% for Scientific R&D
MOST(OSTI) : 11% for
Managing Research
Organizations
MIC : 9% for Information &
Communication Technology
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Government R&D Related Organizational Structure
President
NSTC*
MOST
Vice Prime Ministry
OSTI
MOCIE
ITEP
Others
MIC
KISTEP
KOSEF
IITA
Main Bodies of R&D
(Research Institutions under Research Council,
Private Companies, Universities, etc)
*NSTC : National Science & Technology Council
Agencies
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Chronology of major Government R&D Programs in Korea
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002 2004
HAN Project (G7)
MOST
Dual Use Tech. Program
Space Tech. Development Program
MOST National R&D Programs
Creative Research Initiatives
NRL Program
21C Frontier Program
Nuclear Energy Development Program
Basic Science Program
Next-
MOCIE
Industrial Technology Program (Program for SME’s Key Tech. Program)
Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation Program
Information & Telecommunication Technology Program
MIC
MOD
program
Environmental Technology Program
Key Environment
Tech. Program
Agricultural Technology Program
MOAF
MOE
growth
engine
Dual Use Tech. Program
MOHW Health & Medical Technology Program
MOEnv
generation
SMBA
Small Business Innovation Research
Academia Support Program
BK21 Program
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
BUT,
Korea faces the new and daunting
challenges in coming years.
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty
Increasing risk due to new Tech
High oil price
-Advances in NT, BT, ET
-Fast-follower  World leader
- 97% import of energy
-Energy-intensive industry
-(ex.steel Ind.)
Fast Ageing society
Socioeconomic Polarization
-fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06)
-Net decrease in population after 2020
-Collapse of middle class
-Big Corp. vs. SMEs
-Seoul vs. Regional
FTA & economic Block
-38.3% GDP dependence on Export
-Rising China
--Nutcraker Situation
North Korea
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
challenges in S&T area
Increasing Technology Trade Deficits
Weak Basic Research
100
Development
Applied
Basic
90
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Export
Import
4000
US$(million)
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Tech. Trade Deficit
3000
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a serious sociocultural phenomena of
avoiding sci. & eng. among the young
100%
75%
%
"Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed
Vocational
Liberal Art
Science
into cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must
50%
learn to live with the beast.“
25%
-Paul J.H. Schoemaker
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Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
How can Korea find a way
to the future of S&T?
Foresight Activities
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
YEAR
19701989
DELPHI
MIXED
1990
1st Germany
5th Japan
OECD(→Present)
1993
1st Korean TF(→1994)
1st US-Core Tech.
New Zealand, UN(→present)
2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany21C Tech.
1994
France
Japan/Germany
1995
6th Japan
1996
Japan
Germany
Netherlands
1991
1992
1997
1998
1999
2nd Korean
TF(→1999)
Spain
2000
APEC
Hungary-TEP
Venezuela
7th Japan
2002
2003-2004
1st UK
Spain-OPTI
Austria
Germany
US George Washington
Univ.
2001
PANEL/SCENARIO
Turkey
8th Japan(→2004)
China
3rd Korean TF(→2004)
Netherlands
France-100 core Tech.
3rd US-critical Tech.
AU-ASTEC, Finalnd(1996-98)
Netherlands (Future Committee)
Italy industrial forecasting
ACUNU Millennium Project
Nigeria, India, Philippines
Ireland
South Africa, New Zealand
Sweden, 4th US- critical Tech.
Norway, APEC
EU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands
2nd UK, GermanyFUTUR(→present)
Ireland, Italy
2nd France-100 Core Tech.
Italy 2nd Industrial forecasting
China, Portugal, Brazil
Czech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia
Bulgaria, Rumania, 3rd
UK(→present)
EU(FP 6 →(till 2006)
UK (every year)
Germany( every year), UN, OECD
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Foresight is booming everywhere in the world
• Increasing interest in thinking about the future of S&T
in order to strengthen the ability to anticipate future S&T related issues
In order to formulate new strategy for S&T policy
• Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in many countries
and private firms.
Because TF can make a unique strategic contribution to the policy maker and firm
manager as well as social stakeholders.
Especially in the science and technology related area.
• The need for priorities in science and technology
No one country can afford vast amount of R&D spending
• This Seville Seminar is a premier example that shows the current
emerging issues in Foresight activities.
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Currently On-going TF activity in Korea
Type
Sponsoring
Ministry
Facilitating organization
Thematic Area or Project Title
Time
Horizon
Methodolog
y
TF
(2006)
Ministry of
Information
and
Communic
ation
IITA
(Institute for Information
Technology Advancement)
Foresight for Information Technology
-2030
Delphi
NCA
(National Computerization
Agency)
Ubiquitous Korea
+15 yrs
Panel
TF
(2006)
Ministry of
Health and
Welfare
KHIDI
(Korea Health Industry
Development Institute)
Future Trends in Health care and Life
Science
+15 yrs
Delphi
TF
(2006)
Ministry of
Environme
nt
KIEST
(Korea Institute of
Environmental Science
and Technology)
Future Trends in Environmental
Technology
+15 yrs
Environment
al Scanning
Delphi
TF
(2006)
Ministry of
Science
and
Technolog
y
KISTEP
(Korea Institute of S&T
Evaluation and Planning)
Thematic Foresight
-Nanomaterial
-Stem cell
-Ubiquitous Computing
+15 yrs
Panel
Scenario
F
The
Presidentia
l
Office
Presidential Committee on
Education
Innovation
Future of Education in Korea
-What we do right now?
+15 yrs
Panel
TRM
(2001present)
Ministry of
Commerce,
Industry
and
Energy
KOTEF
(Korea Industrial Technology
Foundation)
Technology Roadmap for
- Material and Component
- Industries
(Robot, Battery, Semiconductor,
Automobile etc.)
+10 yrs
TRM Panel
ST
(2006)
Ministry of
Planning
and
Budget
Co-Work with KDI(Korea
Development Institute)
Vision 2030
- Layout for government Budget
Spending up to 2030
-2030
Panel
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Overview of the 3rd Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOST
• S&T basic Law : Article 13 (enacted in 2001)
• Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP)
• Provide the vision and direction of emerging S&T area – identify
new technology that may have high potential
for growth of national wealth and betterment of
quality of human life
• Has to implement in S&T basic plan (every 5 year, 2nd Plan for
2008-2012))
 1st TF (1993-1994) and 2nd TF(1997-1998) were Lab-Directed Research
Projects carried out by STEPI * and KISTEP
*STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute)
 3rd TF was carried out in 2003-2004 by KISTEP and it is the first TF after
enactment of S&T basic Law.
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
3rd Korean TF : Characteristics
• Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues in future
Korea and enlargement of participation of the stakeholders
• Application of Delphi methods for emerging technology that
may solve the future needs and issue
• Scenario writing for future society
· Future prospect, needs/issues and
technology
· Internal consistency
· Increase awareness the role of S&T in the
knowledge-based society
• Offering of policy alternatives to promote knowledge-based
innovative society
Time Horizon : up to year 2030
Project : Duration : 2003.7 - 2004.12
TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED: National –
covering all S&T fields and the entire territory of Korea
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
3rd Korean TF : Procedures
2nd Phase
1st phase
Future perspectives
Needs and Issues of
society
(4 actors-15 categories-43 subcategories
(Dec. 2003)
Future Technology
Subjects and Delphi
Survey
Analysis
3rd Phase
Future Social Systems
Scenario Building
(Dec. 2004)
(Aug. 2004)
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean TF : Sector Expert Panels
10 sectors (based on key words)
•
Space & earth
•
Material & manufacturing
•
Information and knowledge
•
Food & bio-resource
•
Life & health
•
Energy & environment
•
Safety & Securuty
•
Social Infrastructure
•
Management & innovation
•
S&T and society/culture
Delphi Survey
Provide List of Future
Technologies
Scenario
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean TF : Results
•
Technology Foresight with socio-economic consideration (3rd Generation
Foresight)
- Future perspectives, assessment of future needs & issues
- Scenario writing on future social systems (education, labor,
healthcare, safety)
•
Identify 761 future technology subjects
- 61% of them will realize between 2011-2015
- Korea is still lagging all future technology area
- Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area
- Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years)
•
Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general public
Book, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report
•
Government took follow-up action quickly
 Future Strategic Technology
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Future Strategic Technology Initiative
• Government launches new project to identify emerging generic
technologies at the national level based on 3rd Korean foresight results
• Critical attributes of national strategic technology
Emerging
Disruptive
Converging
Strategic area where government should be involved
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Priority Setting Procedure
3rd Technology
Foresight
Survey from
Industrial &
R&D Inst.
Overseas DB
Future Tech.
Candidate DB
(KISTEP)
1st Screening
(Expert Panel)
Survey &
2nd Screening
Future
Strategic
Tech.
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Future Strategic Technology 21
Economic Impact
•Digital convergence
•Smart computing
•Nano and functional material
•Cognitive science and
humanoid robot
•Culture contents
•Regenerative
medicine
Quality of Life
• Bio-safety & defense
• Drug discovery &
personalized medicine
• Bio-diversity and natural
resources conservation
•Information security
•Super efficient transportation
•Bio-resource
•Satellite
•fusion
Public Need
• Ubiquitous civil infrastructure
•Global observing system
• Hazardㆍdisaster forecast
•Climate/weather forecasting
• Next generation nuclear energy
•Marine territory management
and safety
• Clean and renewable energy
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Technology Roadmapping in Korea
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Brief History of TRM in Korea
• Public Sector
– MOCIE
• Industrial Technology Roadmap
1st Phase(2000. 9~2001. 8), 2rd Phase(2001. 7~2002. 6), 3rd Phase(2003.
6~2004. 6), 4th Phase(2004. 10~2005. 9)
Annually try the new indursty area(product) and update old ones.
– MOST
• National Technology Roadmap(2002)
– MIC
• u-IT839 (8 service, 3 infrastructure, 9 products)
• Private Sector
– Samsung Electronics
• Customized TRM based on SRI-framework
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
NTRM : Approach
Analysis of Industrial Need
5 visions
13 Directions
49 Strategic Product/Functions
99 Key Technologies
NTRM
 Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modifications
 Handle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approach
 NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions and
detailed TRM for chosen key technologies
InterGovernment
Coordination
TaskForce
NSTC Office
Project Team
Vision I
Committee
TRM team A
KISTEP
NTRM Head Council
Vision II
Committee
TRM team B
Vision III
Committee
TRM team C
Vision IV
Committee
………..
Vision V
Committee
TRM team N
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
NTRM by 5 Visions
1
Building an informationknowledge-intelligence society
2
Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia
3
Advancing the E2 Frontier
4
Upgrading the Value
of Major Industries of Korea Today
5
Improving National Safety and Prestige
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society
Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT
service more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendly
Anytime, Anywhere,
Any-device Communication
Innovation in Contents &
Service
Ambient Intelligence
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Vision
Direction of
Development
Strategic products
and Functions
Key Technologies
Optical Internet Technology
High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology
Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology
New Semiconductor Device Technology
Anytime,
Anywhere,
Any-device
Communication
Digital Convergence
Intelligent Computing
Intelligent Network Technology
High Density Storage Technology
Wire&Wireless Integration System Device Technology
Ubiquitous Network
Digital Signal Processing Technology
Mobile & Wearable IT
Device
Tera-bit Optical Communication Elements Technology
Digital Broadcasting Technology
E-marketplace Technology
InformationKnowledgeIntelligence
Society
Innovation in
Contents &
Service
Contents
Next Generation Information System Technology
E-Commerce
S/W Standard/Design/Reuse
E-Finance Technology
Business Service
Information Search DBMS Technology
Digital Information Design Technology
Information Security Technology
Knowledge/Information
Security
Intelligent Man-Machine
Interface
Ambient
Intelligence
Movie/Video/Digital Media Standardization
Digital Contents Authoring Technology
Intelligent Robot
Game Engine Technology
Intelligent Home Appliance
Cyber Communication Technology
Intelligent Building/Home
Intelligent Transport System
Intelligent Medical System
Culture Original Form Restore Technology
Art Intelligent Technology
MEMS Technology
Home Network Technology
Intelligent Home Appliance Technology
Display Technology
Bio-Diagnosis Technology
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and Functions
Mobile & Wearable
IT Device
(73.3 billion $ in 2005)
Very
High
Ubiquitous Network
(2.03 trillion $ in 2005))
E-Commerce
(28.7 trillion $ in 2010)
Intelligent Computing
(765 billion $ in 2004)
Intelligent Transport System
(425 billion $ in 2015)
High
Economic
Impact
Culture Contents
(1.17 trillion $ in 2005)
Digital Convergence
(570 billion $ in 2004)
Man-Machine
Knowledge/Information Security
Interface Intelligence
(30 billion $ from 2005)
Intelligent Home Appliance (Creating high-value
-added,
(360 billion $ in 2005)
Complex products
Intelligent Building/Home
(15 trillion in 2010)
Middle
Intelligent Medical System
(Creating new markets,
reducing medical costs)
Business Service
(157 trillion won in 2010)
High
Low
Intelligent Robot
(17 billion $ in 2005
Middle
Low
Very
Low
Very Low
Low
Middle
High
Strategic Importance
Very High
Potential
for success
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile Communication
Competitiveness of
domestic technology
■●
narrowband CDMA
modem
wideband CDMA modem
Technology
■◎
■●
QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code
■●
Power control, Smart antenna,
Interference, SDR
▣◎
Fixed ATM/IP
Wireless IP core tech.
■●
(QoS, Handoff,Resource management)
interworking(GW)
▣◎ DO/GPRS
■●
▣●
Product
■● High-speed packet modem
IP-based RAN
■●
▣◎ Network
High
Medium
Low
■●
IP-based RAN
with smart antenna
High-speed adaptive
RAN
■●
Homogeneous network
Integration
▣●
DO/DV/GPRS enhancements
■●
Active core network
▣●
ALL-IP core network
Adhoc, Bluetooth
▣●
PAN
■●high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps
2007
2002
2G cellular system
HMI/Hot Spot system
Cdma20001x EV system
Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV
W-CDMA system/ HSDPA
Importance
high
low
■ ▣ □
R&D strategy
2012
4G mobile comm.
● basic research
⊙ international collaboration
◎ applied research ○ Outsourcing
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Corporate Foresight: One Electronic Company
• AGTO : based in IBM GTO
•  Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant to Industry
– Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to Create New Ones
– Exponential and Threshold
– How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses
– Understand Customer Challenges
 Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of Company
• Future Technology Center –Research Organization
 Sectoral Technology Forecasting
• Siemens : Picture of Future
 Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Good signal for FTA
•
•
•
•
Each Ministry establishes a separate “Future Strategic Unit”
More private companies have involved in foresight activity
More article about Future Technologies on newspaper
A lot of debates underway on ‘vision 2030’ by the
government
• Movement to form “National Strategic unit”
• Start to open Foresight class in the graduate school…
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Challenges
• Due to legislation, it seems to be quite favorable situation to
run TF in nation-wide in Korea
• But there are several things to be addressed.
• Capability to run TF (Facilitating)
– Not many
– Not enough experiences
• Methodological Competence
– Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to use? Better
way to do?
– What is the best combination of methods
• Impact on Policy making
– Some, but not Clear yet
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Thank you
Dr. Byeongwon Park
 [email protected]
☎ 82 2 589 2931