Transcript Document 7212399

Coastal Planners Climate Change Workshop
Adobe Resort, Yachats OR
October 25, 2007
Roger Hamilton, Climate Leadership Initiative
University of Oregon
[email protected]
541-686-4839
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What is Preparation?
• Development and implementation of government,
community, and private sector plans for the purpose of
ensuring that vital social services and infrastructure, and
ecological systems and organisms are prepared to
withstand the impacts of climate change
• Distinct from mitigation which is the regulatory and
private strategy and effort to reduce the emissions of
greenhouse gasses and their warming impacts
• Preparation needed as a complementary strategy to
mitigation until the climate is stabilized in 50 to 100 years
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The Last 20,000 Years seems to have been Ideal for the Development of Human
Societies. Is this a Historic “Sweet Spot” that Enabled Humans to Flourish?
4.5 oC
Is this an Anthropomorphic “Sweet
Spot”?
Agriculture
emerges
1.5 oC
3
There isisaafundamental
fundamentalasymmetry
asymmetry
between
scales
There
between
the the
timetime
scales
that
thatclimate
the climate
reacts
to increases
in greenhouse
the
systemsystem
reacts to
increases
in greenhouse
gases and
gases and
scales
to recover
fromincreases.
such increases.
the the
timetime
scales
to recover
from such
Sea Level Rise will Stabilizes
Reduction CO2 missions sooner,
moves
in over
1000 these
years
delayed consequences downward and reduces the
Temperatures
time required to
stabilize the responses.
Stabilizes in about
500 Hundred years
Carbon Dioxide
Stabilizes in several
Hundred years
100 Years
Today
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1000 Years
Appropriate
Design Culture
Cool Building
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Why the Need for Preparation?
• Sea level rise, intense winter storms, summer drought,
higher average temperatures predicted to cause
significant social, economic, and environmental stress in
Oregon
• State and federal agencies have yet to incorporate
climate change into strategic plans (US GAO report,
September 2007)
• Abraham Lincoln: government role is to protect the
commons
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Reasons (continued)
• Planning for the future can benefit the present (impacts
may be more frequent but similar to past and present)
• Local and state government are on front line of
emergencies (Katrina)
• Proactive preparedness costs less than reactive action
• Thinking strategically reduces future risks
• Thinking strategically may lead to future benefits (new
crops)
• Preparedness planning may add value to existing capital
improvement plans (expanding water storage or storm
treatment facilities)
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Likely Coastal Impacts (CIG)
• Transportation: travel disruption due to landslides, road
washouts, and flooding
• Infrastructure: need for new or upgraded flood and
erosion control structures
• Infrastructure: new or upgraded storm water
management systems with storm water and sewer
overflows
• Infrastructure: Increased damage to coastal structures,
dunes, beaches due to sea level rise and storm surges
• Ecosystems: loss of coastal wetlands due to erosion and
sea level rise
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Coastal Impacts (cont.)
• Ecosystems: loss of species if migration corridors
blocked
• Salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers due to sea level
rise
• Increased risk of pollution from hazardous waste sites
• Loss of cultural and historical sites due to sea level rise
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Oregon Preparation Policies
HB 3543 establishes a Global Warming Commission
charged with an outreach strategy to:
1. Educate public on science and impacts
2. Inform on ways to prepare for effects
3. Inform on ways to reduce ghg emissions
and an under funded Climate Change Research Institute
to support Commission in developing preparation and
mitigation strategies
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Washington Preparation Policies
• Climate Impacts Group at UW provides updates
on climate science and regional impacts
• Just published Preparation Guidebook for local
governments:
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guideboo
k.shtml#downloading
• Work groups established to develop preparation
plans for a number of sectors: ag, forestry,
natural systems, coastal infrastructure, estuaries
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California Preparation Policies
• Agencies considering programs and policies related to climate
change:
Business, Transportation and Housing, Food and Agriculture,
Forestry, Natural Resources, and Water Resources
• Website: “CA will leverage its vast intellectual and economic
resources preparing for foreseeable future impacts and reducing
green house gasses.”
• “Responding to climate change will not be an additional burden but
will, in fact, provide economic development, energy and economic
security, and improve public health and safety.”
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Barriers to Strategic Thinking About Climate
Change (King County Report)
•
•
•
•
•
I don’t know how it will affect my community?
It should happen at higher levels of government.
I’ll deal with it when I see it happening.
My community wants to focus on ghg reduction.
I’ll deal with it when you tell me exactly what I need to
plan for.
• I don’t have time or money for it right now.
• I don’t have political support.
• Our planning and operations are based on historical data
not future modeling
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Oregon Preparation Policies cross-cutting through
Five Focus Groups: Business, Human Services,
Natural Systems, Built Systems, Conservation
• Use land-use codes to remove people and
buildings from hazard areas
• Peg insurance premiums to hazard risk
• Integrate climate change into existing
sustainability programs
• Ensure public is informed and educated on
impacts and risks
• Scale down impact data to local level
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Preparation Strategies for Building Design and
Construction(Based on meeting with architects and
public infrastructure managers)
• Add cooling systems
• Expand storm drainage
• Build protection against severe storm events: wind and
precipitation
• Provide more water storage (rainwater collection) in
drought areas
• Vector protection (the screened porch)
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For the built environment: (continued)
•Revise building codes and performance standards to better meet
climate-related stresses
• Amend state and local land-use plans to avoid hazard areas and
to site residences closer to work and public transportation
•Make the building recommissioning process more robust
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Agency Policies for Natural Systems
(Based on meeting with natural scientists)
• Proactively link climate change into agency programs
and land-use codes
• Implement carbon-neutral forest management planning
• Make better use of existing state and federal wetlands
law
• Account for both surface and groundwater in water
permitting
• Reduce invasive species (may accelerate with rising
CO2
• Exchange function for function in transportation
mitigation
• Use natural costal morphology for sea-level armoring 18
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• Prevent deforestation through land-use amendments
For human services: (based on meeting with public health
and emergency service managers)
• Fund climate change planning now to ensure that future generations are not
overburdened with the costs of preparation
• Connect climate change to established sustainability initiatives
• Implement sustainability at every level of government
• Provide a climate change rainy day disaster relief fund
• Amend land-use laws to account for climate changes
• Develop a new Oregon benchmark to measure progress in preparation for
climate change
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Policies for Businesses (based on meeting with
Oregon business reps)
•Incorporate climate policies into existing sustainability
policies
•Link preparation and mitigation measures
•Link preparation and economic development
opportunities
•Coordinate research agendas across states and regions
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Business Preparation (cont.)
•Adopt risk-management approach
•Adopt a 75 year planning horizon
•Require climate change observation and
monitoring systems
•Prevent preparation in one sector or region
from having negative impacts on another
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Coastal Preparation Strategies
and Policies
• Consider state coastal goal plan amendment
• Amend county and city land-use plans to site new
buildings outside of hazard zones subject to sea level
rise, storm surges, and riverine flooding
• Use natural systems and coastal morphology for storm
buffering and sea-level rise armoring
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Data Gaps
• Data on pathogens and allergens
• Data on local temperature and precipitation trends and
forecasts
• Updated flood plain maps
• Data on changes in river hydrology, coastal sand supply,
and sea level rise
• Information on viable approaches to coastal armoring
• Data on the cost of specific preparation measures
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UO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Greenhouse Gas Quantification and Impact
Assessments
Low-Carbon Sustainable Economic Development
Climate Policy and Program Development
Private Access Local Government Web-based
Discussion Board
Climate Change Science Updates
E-mail alerts on climate change issues
Neighborhood Climate Change Program
Website: http://climlead.uoregon.edu
E-mail: [email protected] (Roger Hamilton)
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